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A small update on the successful Ukrainian offensive in Kharkov oblast & yesterday's Russian missile strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4uzEMEdyFvc

Comments

Anonymous

in the American Civil War, Lincoln's generals were similarly disinterested in waging real war for a long time (until Grant), but that's a bit different

Anonymous

That's not true... Scott launched major offensives. So did Burnside. They just got beat. 😁

Anonymous

a timely reminder of one of the many similarities between Banderist fascists and Confederate fascists - unearned hubris.

Anonymous

Excellent analysis. And now the US is starting to talk about the realization of my nightmare scenario: Giving Ukraine modern MBTs and AFVs. Not to be pessimistic, but since the USSR made a wrong bet on image intensification technology instead of IR technology every western tank from the Leopard 2A4/M1A1 and forwards can probably beat anything except T-90M and T-72B3 (and that depends on how good Russian APFSDS ammunition is) and even more concerning the US is considering giving AFVs such as the Bradley/The Warrior/Marder (old but good enough) which while being largely resistant to 30x165 mm API and APDS rounds can easily destroy any Russian non-MBT target with it’s 25/30/20 mm cannons and APFSDS or APDS projectiles while being basically invisible to Russian IFV opponents during the night. Add M30 rockets for HIMARS and tens of thousands of NVGs and we’ll maybe finally see some nuclear warheads go off (It’s not a dream you moron, it’s real! I know the date it happens. On August 29, 2041 it’s gonna feel pretty fucking real to you too! Anybody not wearing nano-bot proof suits is gonna have a real bad day. You’re the one living in a dream Silberman cause I know it happens :) ). Just don’t forget to get the info through US and Israeli backchannels that 100 Russian warheads of 100+ kT yield are reserved for the territory of Israel and the chance of a nuclear response shrinks tremendously. Not that I trust Putin to really get this. A last observeration, in almost every major war since WWII where political concerns trumped military concerns the outcome has not been good for the side living in political land.

Benjamin Rood

You should speak with AM / SmoothieX12 again asap I think...

Chris Hensley

Thanks for the concise and timely update. I appreciate the Twitter thread AAR as well. How many people have you muted over there? I'm not sure if it's mostly trolls or if they actually hate and despise everything Russian. The cruel and mean-spirited replies seem more fitting in a inconsequential sporting event rather than a war where soldiers on both sides are being maimed and killed while innocent civilians are caught in the middle.

Tyler

Have you read Ionesco's "the Hermit" ? He discusses how people have a natural bloodlust that builds over the years and revolutions and war are a way to vent that bloodlust. Judging from the liberal types reactions towards this, I would say a War on Terrorism wasn't interesting enough, and Ukraine is a good way to express that desire.

Anonymous

English speaking blacks in the pro Ukrainian forces? Looks like Biden isn't joking about dealing with the "semi-facists" (read: conservative whites) in the US, get some urban warfare training for the "non-racist" segments of the US military.

Anonymous

Now the US is announcing the delivery of 2 NASAMS highly modern SAM systems in 2 months to Ukraine. These SAM systems uses medium range low high altitude active radar guided missiles w mid-course guidance updates and are semi-mobile but much more mobile than for instance S-300 and it’s successor systems with a setup time of maybe 15 minutes. The weakest point is the radar in the standard system, a trailer mounted MPQ-64 or -64F1 Sentinel/Improved Sentinel, but the fire control central is very flexible as to which search radar can be used and if I had to guess these systems could very likely be delivered with Swedish Saab GIRAFFE AMD radars mounted on LAV-III 10x10 APCs (Which Sweden has very little use for and theres tribute to be paid) - still very modern and good-selling radars with longer range (especially against the comparably very large radar signature of Su-27/-30/-35 fighters) and truly excellent ECCM features. These radar systems could transmit and then move in a minute. Even the Improved Sentinel would be a large threat to the large RCS-aircraft Russia uses plus against Kaliber CMs. And since the missiles uses active radar guidance they are especially well-suited to shooting down Flankers at any useful altitude. Putin seems like a deer caught in the headlights. I got the same feeling 2 days after the invasion (honestly, the attack on Kiev wasn’t a feint, it’s impossible when you consider the VDV attack on Hostomel with the purpose - idiotic from the start - to fly in airborne forces in large transport planes at an airport surrounded by hostile soldiers with an excess of MANPADS. That’s not to say Kremlin ever thought they would conquer Kiev, but the plan was most probably to lay siege to Kiev and force concessions, a plan which also shows a complete lack of understanding of the puppet nature of the Kiev regime and the pure hatred for Russia the jewish elites that rule the US feel for the imagined pogroms and other persecution-delusions-induced imagined historic slights). These SAM systems alone will close the skies over any UAF offensive considering the dismal performance of the RuAF when it comes to SEAD/DEAD (Where are the masses of Kh-31P missiles? Although the lack of them is somewhat understandable since it’s pretty obvious by now that Russia’s forces has been organized and equipped to fight a purely defensive war against NATO on Russian ground and this was reasonable since Russia prioritized what seemed to be the greatest threat when Russia started rebuilding it’s forces after the post-soviet collapse). But why not even a hint of nuclear brinkmanship from Putin when NATO is increasingly derivering more and more more lethal systems? NATO is obviously in the process of equipping UA forces with better equipment than Russia has in many cases. If Putin does not put down his foot and threathens nuclear war unless deliveries stops the west will soon deliver modern low high altitude SAM systems - and more will follow the first two NASAMS systems, then deliver Leopard 2A6/M1A1 MBTs and western AFVs that beat Russias BMPs and BTRs in all aspects except for slightly higher HE grenade weight (not a very important metric), then more artillery will follow incl precision guided grenades (the sad fact for Russia is that one precision guided round, if ISR is good enough and the US will assure it is, is worth maybe between 25 and 100 ordinary grenades depending on caliber, target and range) and production and deliveries of M30 rockets for HIMARS will probably increase, then F-16s, which there is a practically infinite numbers of, will be delivered with upgraded mech-scanned radars and late model AIM-120s that will kill Flankers in BVR with support from AWACS and which can be very dangerous for Russian ground forces equipped with 4x Mavericks (which are to be replaced anyway), then probably F-15s will follow, maybe F-15Es will follow on that. Lots of HARMs which are top notch ARM missiles in C and F-versions will start to degrade Russian SAM systems with not so hot search or target tracking/illumination radars (Tunguska, possibly Buk-M1 versions). And Russia will still lack the infantry to make real advances, especially against much better equipped opposition, now with combat experience and much better morale. This increases the chances of nuclear escalation considerably. Maybe Putin is being lied to about the war, but I see no reason to believe so. And if Putin thinks Europe will give up in the winter he understands nothing about how European politics works (Ironically enough Putin is more constrained by popular will/opinion than western leaders are - thank you liberal democracy, ie rule by incomptent ideologically fanatic transnational elites who hate their own peoples). The political elites here would rather die than do something that’s good for their own people for the reason that it’s good for their people-who most of them denies even exists. They would rather have massive protests and thousands killed by machine gun fire - delivered by western militaries who are only good for stopping revolts by dispossed european-heritage citizens - than stoppning sactions to start up gas deliveries to stop Europe from complete economic collapse.

Benjamin Rood

I hope you are both well. Maybe get off twatter. Definitely don’t respond to NAFO

Benjamin Rood

It’s impossible to know about Putin, but what you say about Euro elites is an absolute fact. The disappointing thing is how EU “citizens”/cattle are so supine and compliant with this agenda. The degree of dumb and brainwashing is even worse than during “pandemic”. I live in one of the Baltic states and the majority of the populace will go along with anything so long as Russia can be blamed and it stimulates their hate-boner.

Anonymous

Yeah, living in the asylum Sweden here, the only EU country with a worse view of Russia among the population than the Baltics, according to a poll I saw. Hate-boner is a great Word. I have repeatedly brought up the Cuba crisis with people as a comparision, one, a boomer who is one of the most non-PC people I know and who has pretty non-normie rightwing views, thought I had a good point, all the rest people have either looked at me like I was a Martian or condemned me. And you are right about Putin, it’s impossible to really know, but it’s hard not to get the feeling he either does not understand that relations with Europe will not turn friendly probably for decades, and that the US elite is absolutely set on winning the war and what the US says Europe does. But maybe he understands that he is in a mess with no really good way out - because in contrast to western elites he is sane at least and doesn’t really want war or bad relations with the west - or he has a decent plan like capturing the Donbass and whatever else Russia holds now and declaring victory and putting up very deep minefields between annexed Ukraine and the rest or maybe he has a sudden call up of reservists during the winter when Europe is occupied w civil unrest schediled, or something completely unthought of. Although I think it’s wise to be critical - even though I as recently as middle of Mars rated Putin as one of the top five statesmen of the 20th century nobody is unfalliable. But big thanks for your thoughtful reminder we cannot really know. I was 99% sure about the war maybe six-eight weeks in advance when the US and NATO totally dismissed Russias expressed concerns/demands so I might very well have a tendency to overestimate my ability to understand what Putin is thinking after I turned out to be right about the war, in other words I might be a little too cocky because of that.

B L

Does Russian Armed forces accept foreign volunteers?