Israel-Hamas Flash Report 28NOV23 13:20 PST - Cease-Fire Breach Accusations and Hostages (Patreon)

Overnight Seattle time, there were claims of a cease-fire breach in the northern part of the Gaza Strip from less than reliable sources on social media. There were no reports on the official Hamas channels.

Later in the day, Israel accused Hamas militants of ambushing Israeli units with IEDs in three separate incidents. The IDF claimed there were several minor injuries, and their soldiers engaged using small arms. Shortly after, Hamas released a less specific statement. While this represents the most serious incident since the cease-fire started on November 24, in our assessment, this was not a serious breach. Slipping into the opinion zone, we're a bit surprised and relieved the cease-fire held for the original four days.

Twelve more hostages were released today - ten Israelis and two Thai nationals. 

The released Israelis include four pensioners (elderly), five adults, and one teenager. Thailand has not released information on its two citizens.

Videos released by Hamas showed that Palestinian Islamic Jihad participated in today's exchange facilitated by the Red Cross. The small convoy of vehicles was met by crowds who climbed on vehicles, banged on windows, and threw rocks and other objects. Similar allegations were made on November 26 by Israeli hostages. A review of the official Hamas Telegram channel supported the November 26 claims. Two videos show the 📺 Red Cross vehicles with hostages driving through crowds of Palestinians with some, mostly children, climbing on the vehicles, others banging on the windows and the sound of objects hitting the convoy.

The Israeli Prison Service announced that 30 Palestinians had been released - 15 adults and 15 teenagers - all women. 

There was no information on the number of trucks carrying aid that crossed at Rafah into the Gaza Strip, but that isn't unusual given the timing of today's report. Talks are ongoing in Jordan to open a second border crossing into the Gaza Strip, but observers consider that unlikely.

It is reported that up to 60% of the civilian housing in the Gaza Strip has been damaged or destroyed, mostly due to Israeli airstrikes. 

We did an analysis of 48-year-old Jason J Eaton, who is accused of shooting three men, including one Palestinian national, in Burlington, Vermont, on November 24. Eaton had a very transparent social media and ideological history online. Eaton believed in a number of conspiracy theories, and his writings and social media posts expressed more fear about the government and the banking system through the years. He believed in COVID conspiracy theories. He shared Libertarian information, but the Vermont Libertarian Party said he was not a member. Eaton does not have a prior criminal history beyond a handful of civil traffic violations.

He shared and believed in numerous banking conspiracy theories and dabbled in day trading. His work history indicated he was a financial advisor, with his most recent employer reporting that Eaton was fired on November 8. On his website and social media, he expressed support and interest in cryptocurrencies but never crossed into the realm of so-called "crypto bros." 

He was described as highly religious by his family and self-identified as a member of the Universality Unitarian Faith, which ascribes to non-violence. As recently as November 7, his since-locked Twitter (X) account called for protesters to be peaceful. There is nothing in his writings that amounted to a manifesto. He did not express any racist ideology or any other "isms."

His personal website appears innocuous on the surface, with disjointed content and navigation. However, there are numerous links to what could be described as Easter eggs that form a picture of someone close to embracing QAnon conspiracies.

Local officials reported that two of the victims are dual U.S.-Palestinian citizens who were born in the West Bank, while the third is Palestinian. All three are expected to recover from their injuries. Police allege that the three were shot outside of Eaton's apartment building. When ATF agents came to his apartment, he allegedly said he was waiting for them and, shortly into questioning, asked for a lawyer. Eaton reportedly said nothing to the three college students and fired at least four shots. Distinctive red-tipped ammunition used in the shooting matched ammunition found in Eaton's apartment.

On Monday, Eaton appeared in court and was charged with three counts of second-degree attempted murder (Vermont 13 V.S.A. § 9, Vermont 51 V.S.A. § 2301, 2302, 2303). Eaton pleaded not guilty and is being held without bond.

Prosecutors in Vermont have not added a hate crime enhancement at this time, but the investigation is ongoing.