Update: Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 21 NOV 2023 - 13:30 PST - Russian OPSEC Fail (Patreon)

Update: Additional photos have been shared that are inconsistent with M30 (unitary HE warhead) rockets fired by HIMARS and are more consistent with barrel artillery. However, the range is on the absolutely ragged edge of the capabilities of any known barrel artillery systems on the planet. Russian sources have made no claims that this was a drone strike and have not shared any debris pictures. The strike almost certainly did not involve M30 rockets, JDAM-ER, GLSDB, or a one-way drone. The remaining possibilities are base-bleed GPS-guided artillery rounds fired dangerously close to the known line of conflict, drone-delivered IEDs using a warhead significantly larger than previously seen, a strike executed within Russia-occupied territory by partisans or Ukrainian SSO, or an unknown weapon system.

In the settlement of Kumachove in occupied Donetsk, Russian soldiers gathered at the Palace of Culture, reportedly for a memorial service for members of the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade and to listen to a performance of Russian dancer, singer, and actress Polina Menshikh. There was an apparent violation of operational security (OPSEC), and the building, which had at least 100 Russian soldiers inside, was likely 📺 hit by at least three rockets fired by HIMARS. The settlement is almost 70 kilometers from the known line of conflict, and the number of explosions recorded in the brief video and the size of the first two impacts are inconsistent with Storm Shadow or SCALP-ER cruise missiles. There have been no reports of the Boeing/Saab GLSDB system being deployed.

Russian sources are reporting that at least 25 soldiers were killed and "dozens" more wounded. Polina Menshikh was also killed in the strike.

This is the fourth OPSEC failure-related strike on Russian positions since November 15. There is a fourth one occupied in Kherson. We can verify the Russian casualties in Kumachove and the geolocation. We remain uncertain that this was a memorial service for the 810th, as they are currently on deployment in Kherson, and believe that the incidents in occupied Donetsk and Kherson, which happened 24 hours apart, are being conflated.