Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 24 OCT 2023 - 13:00 PDT - Ukraine Has Got Problems (Patreon)

Update: 227 changed to 229

Russian forces did a "picture report" for the terrikon north of the Avdiivka Coke Plant, planting the Russian and the 114th Regiment Battle flag on the eastern side. A Ukrainian drone took out the flag, and both the Russian and Ukrainian drone videos showed no one on the terrikon and no indication of built defensive positions. Part of the reason there weren't any significant reinforcements is the terrikon is a borderline open-air toxic waste dump. However, when we talk about the Russian Ministry of Defense, Russian troops built defensive positions in the toxic waste heaps at Soledar and dug trenches in the infamous Chornobyl Red Forest. The Russian 114th has been combat destroyed to take the terrikon.

But maps don't lie, and while some analysts are now dismissing the advance as unimportant, that isn't an objective view. There is higher ground at the Coke Factory, but you can destroy a fortress - ask the released Ukrainian soldiers from Azovstal. You can't destroy a manmade mountain. Terrikon aside, there is a bigger problem.

When Ukraine held Krasnohorivka, they used it as a firebase that prevented Russian troops from advancing deeper into Avdiivka. Ukraine was pushed out in the late summer of 2022, and we didn't hit the panic button because Russia's hold was tenuous, and it wasn't possible to bring artillery to the settlement. That's remained the case through all of 2023. The main objective is to encircle Avdiivka at all costs. If Russia continues to advance from the plateau, they will be able to start using Krasnohorivka as a firebase, as Ukraine did. If that happens, it will become increasingly difficult to maintain ground lines of communication, which are already strained.

Russia's solution to break the deadlock is to expend their soldiers like it is World War I or the darkest days of World War II before Field Marshall Zhukov ended pointless human wave attacks. The keyword is pointless. The tactics employed by Russia from May 2022 to September 2023 were straight out of the Zhukov playbook, including penal battalions and following Stalin's order 227. The ghost of the NVKD and barrier troops is alive and well.

Ukraine can't and shouldn't employ similar tactics to achieve battlefield parity. Russia's goal is not the capture of an intact Ukraine to absorb into the Russian Federation. It is the complete destruction of Ukraine and its culture. Russia claims it is taking back its territory, which Russia illegally annexed, and has no legal basis to support its actions. Yet, it is leaving every square inch they advance through uninhabitable and unusable for what they say is their people. Remember, this was about protecting Russian lives from Ukrainian Nazis, according to Russian propaganda.

How does Ukraine counteract this?

A) Something audacious somewhere that forces Russia to redeploy its troops. This has happened three previous times when Russia started its attempts to encircle Avdiivka.

B) Regrettably, the only thing at their disposal is artillery, artillery, and more artillery.

We officially enter month 21 of Russia's expanded widescale invasion of Ukraine. If Ukraine had a functional air force, it could provide close air support. Russia wouldn't be able to use World War I, jump over the wire, and rush tactics. But "if" doesn't win wars. Grunts with guns do. Right now, Russia has more grunts with guns and does not care about casualty rates.