Israel-Hamas War SITREP for 22 OCT 2023 - Airstrikes and Clashes on the Lebanon Border Increase (Patreon)

Action Report

The information space remains highly problematic, with an extreme amount of disinformation being spread by the proxies of both combatants. Ground fighting continues to be local skirmishes and the neutralization of squad-sized sabotage and reconnaissance teams. It is difficult to ascertain where the truth lies between all the claims in an environment where the ground fighting is somewhere between terrorist and police actions and actual combat between two belligerents. Unless we state, “we were able to independently verify the claim,” or provide three unique sources in the report, the claims should be considered “unverified.” Otherwise, every third sentence would be, “We cannot independently verify the claim.”

Gaza Strip and Southern Israel

Hamas, loosely affiliated militias, and terror groups focused on targeting IDF troops, defensive positions, and forward operating bases, a shift in tactics from the previous week. Israeli and Hamas clashed on the border of the Gaza Strip in the Kissufim area. Israeli troops, supported by a tank and a bulldozer, supporting a raid into Gaza came under fire by antitank-guided missiles (ATGM) to target the vehicles, which the IDF claimed remained on the Israeli side of the border. One IDF soldier was killed, and three more wounded. The IDF confirmed that troops did operate inside of Gaza and claimed it was a unit searching for the location of hostages. In our assessment, this action does not represent a shaping operation or probing attack.

IDF also got into a small arms exchange with several members of the Hamas Nukhba commandos, who are believed to have been in Israel since October 7. Two were killed, and one was captured.

United Nations 200 Blue Line Border between Israel and Lebanon and Northern Israel

Fighting continued to intensify on the Israel-Lebanon U.N. border, with multiple diplomats expressing concern that escalation is leading toward a broader conflict. There were 13 to 18 clashes with Iranian-backed Lebanese Hezbollah and other militias.

A Reuters-Thompson story claimed that Iranian leaders have reached an agreement and have approved limited cross-border strikes by Hezbollah. The goal is to draw Israeli military resources away from the Gaza Strip without causing another war between Lebanon and Israel.

Exchanges of artillery, drone strikes, antitank weapons, mortars, and airstrikes continued, with significant activity in the Mount Dov region. Israel carried out 11 airstrikes along the Lebanon border, targeting Iranian-aligned militants, firebases, and supply nodes.

Hezbollah struck the settlements of Zar’it, Yiftah, Mattat, Manara, and Margaliot, 📺 striking a communications tower with a drone. Mortars were fired into the Golan Heights, with no one claiming responsibility.

In response to the widening cross-border attacks, the IDF announced that 14 more settlements would be evacuated. Israel currently has approximately 200,000 displaced citizens.

Hezbollah’s deputy leader, Sheikh Naim Qassem, said that when Israel starts its ground offensive in the Gaza Strip, they will strike, adding that the Iranian-backed militants are already in the fight. We are trying to weaken the Israeli enemy and let them know that we are ready.”

The West Bank

Despite the call for another day of protest by Hamas, the number of clashes dropped significantly, with five to ten reported skirmishes between the IDF and Palestinian-aligned militants and terror groups. The largest clash was in Jenin, where small-arms fire was exchanged, and the Aqusa Martyrs’ Brigade used IEDs against the IDF.

Missile, Drone, and Airstrikes on Israel

Rocket attacks were reported on the southern and central Israel settlements of Rishon Lezion, Holon, Bat Yam, Kissufim, Ashkelon, Nahal Oz, Beit Shemesh, Kiryat Gat, Netivot, Beersheba, and Ofakim. One civilian was wounded in Netivot.

The IDF reported that of the 7,400 rockets fired by Hamas and other militants and terror groups, 1,100 were intercepted by Iron Dome and 550 misfired. There have been 400 hits within Israel. Iron Dome calculates the trajectories of munitions, and if one is projected to land in an unpopulated area, the system deprioritizes it as a target. We cannot independently verify the numbers.

The IAF has escalated its air campaign on Gaza, carrying out dozens of airstrikes that are reportedly the most intense set of attacks since October 7. Internet service is seriously degraded in the Gaza Strip, making it increasingly difficult to verify reports. Numerous videos that circulated on social media today were misattributed.

Middle East Region and Theaterwide

Defense Minister of Israel Yoav Gallant says Israel’s ground offensive in the Gaza Strip may last up to three months. “This needs to be the last maneuver in Gaza for the simple reason that after it, there will be no Hamas. It will take a month, two months, three, but in the end, there will be no Hamas.”

ASSESSMENT: We do not share his optimistic prediction.

CNN reported that the Biden Administration is calling for Israel to delay its ground assault on Gaza to let negotiations for hostages continue and to allow more humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip. Israeli officials denied the claim.

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian says he spoke with Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and Palestinian Islamic Jihad chief Ziyad al-Nakhala on their strategy to stop Israel’s “brutal crimes.”

The IDF confirmed that a tank accidentally shelled an Egyptian forward operating base near Kerem Shalom and issued an immediate apology. Egypt’s military spokesman says an unspecified number of border guards sustained minor injuries from shrapnel, adding that Israeli officials “immediately expressed its regret over the unintentional incident, and an investigation is underway.”

ASSESSMENT: IDF military readiness is in a poor state, as we had previously assessed.

The IAF carried out airstrikes on Syrian airports in Damascus and Aleppo, disabling both airfields. This was the second strike on Damascus and the third at Aleppo since October 12, and both airports have been frequent targets of the IAF through 2023. Syrian state-controlled media reported one worker was killed in Damascus and another wounded.

The Iranian-backed Islamic Resistance in Iraq struck the Ain al Asad Airbase in Iraq, representing the fifth day of strikes by the group. In response to the escalating violence, the United States Department of State issued a Level 4 travel advisory for Iraq and ordered non-essential staff and family members to leave the embassy in Baghdad and the consulate in Arbil. A Level 4 travel advisory is the equivalent of “go now.”

In Yemen, the Houthi separatist's prime minister said his faction would target Israeli ships in the Red Sea if Israel launched a ground offensive in the Gaza Strip. The United States aircraft carrier Dwight D. Eisenhower and its battlegroup have been redirected to the Red Sea. Reports that China was sending six to seven ships to the same region are exaggerated. The Chinese deployment is part of a planned anti-piracy mission supported by a multinational task force.

The U.S. Department of Defense ordered an increased state of readiness and the activation of air defense systems throughout the Middle East region. Additionally, a THAAD and Patriot air defense systems are being shipped to supplement existing defenses. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said the orders were in response to “recent escalations by Iran and its proxy forces across the Middle East.”

Additionally, an unspecified number of U.S. forces have been on alert to be prepared for deployment. Austin issued another warning to Iranian leaders while stating the Pentagon is “concerned about potential escalation. In fact, what we’re seeing is a prospect of significant escalation of attacks on our troops,” during an interview with American news agency ABC News. “If any group or any country is looking to widen this conflict and take advantage of this very unfortunate situation that we see, our advice is: don’t. We maintain the right to defend ourselves, and we won’t hesitate to take the appropriate action.”

Israeli media claimed Islamic Revolutionary Guard Quds Commander General Esmail Ghaani arrived in Syria to monitor the Iranian-backed militias massed on the Israel-Syria border. Earlier, Ghaani told Syrian President Bashar al Assad that Iran intends to use Syria as a second front if Israel conducts a land operation in Gaza.

War Crimes and Human Rights

As an editorial policy, we are referring to Hamas fighters as militants and not terrorists. New intelligence indicates the attack on October 7 was conducted by the equivalent of a brigade in size and demonstrated previously unseen asymmetrical warfare tactics that included combined arms that go beyond a terrorist attack. Further, in calling Hamas terrorists, there is less accountability for the command and control structures, which ordered what can be described as an invasion.

The IDF published a series of aerial images that showed Hamas had established a firebase adjacent to a UNWRA-run kindergarten. Our team was able to geolocate the photos, and Hamas has a decades-long history of using civilians as human shields and civilian infrastructure for their operations.

IDF spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari updated the number of people held hostage by Hamas and other groups to 212.

The Rafah border crossing opened briefly on Sunday, allowing 14 to 17 trucks carrying humanitarian aid into Gaza. There was significant confusion through the day – again – with Egypt state-run media reporting 17 trucks crossed and the United Nations claiming no vehicles entered. The Biden administration’s envoy for the humanitarian situation in Gaza, David Satterfield, told U.S. news agency MSNBC,  “There are an additional 15 trucks en route today.” Israeli and Palestinian spokespersons reported another aid shipment containing water, food, and medical equipment entered the Gaza Strip.

Journalists with AFP and the Associated Press insisted that six to seven trucks carrying fuel crossed the border, with Egyptian officials providing no comment and the IDF and Israeli government denying the claim, adding that the photos shared on the internet at U.N. fuel trucks transferring internal reserves already inside the Gaza Strip to regional hospitals.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, speaking on U.S. news agency NBC News, said that Israel has turned on one freshwater pipeline to Gaza, but “there are a couple of other pipelines that we’d like to see restored.” Blinken hinted that fuel shipments should be allowed into Gaza without saying so directly, adding that desalination plants need to be powered back on to provide enough drinking water and prevent the spread of waterborne illnesses.

Casualties

We no longer track Israeli or Palestinian casualty numbers due to serious questions about the veracity of reports from both combatants.

Rest of World: There were updates on the number of foreign nationals listed as dead, missing, or confirmed as hostages, with 38 nations reporting 224 of their citizens were killed:

• Argentina - 9 dead, 21 unaccounted
• Australia - 1 dead
• Austria - 4 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Azerbaijan - 3 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Belarus - 3 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Belgium – 2 dead
• Brazil - 3 dead
• Cambodia - 1 dead
• Canada - 6 dead, 2 unaccounted
• Chile - 4 dead, 1 unaccounted
• China - 4 dead, 2 unaccounted
• Columbia – 1 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Estonia – 1 dead
• France - 30 dead, 1 hostage, 6 unaccounted
• Germany – 4 dead, 8 hostages
• Honduras – 1 dead
• India – 2 killed, 4 unaccounted
• Ireland - 1 dead
• Italy – 1 dead, 1 unaccounted, 1 hostage
• Kazakhstan – 2 dead
• Mexico - 2 hostages
• Moldova – 1 dead
• Nepal - 10 dead, 1 unaccounted
• The Netherlands – 1 dead, 1 hostage
• Paraguay - 2 unaccounted
• Peru - 3 dead, 4 unaccounted
• Philippines - 4 dead, 2 unaccounted
• Poland – 1 dead
• Portugal - 4 dead, 4 unaccounted
• Romania – 3 dead*, 2 hostages
• Russia - 19 dead, 7 missing, 2 hostages
• South Africa – 2 dead
• Spain - 1 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Sri Lanka - 2 unaccounted
• Switzerland – 1 dead
• Tanzania - 2 unaccounted
• Thailand - 30 dead, 19 hostages
• Türkiye - 1 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Ukraine - 18 dead, 8 missing
• United Kingdom – 10 dead, 6 unaccounted
• United States - 31 dead, 13 unaccounted
• Uzbekistan – 3 dead, 4 unaccounted

Four Romanian nations died on October 7, with one identified as a dual-passport holder and a soldier in the IDF. We reduced the number in our tally to three.

Israeli-Hamas Politics

No new developments.

Geopolitics

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