Israel-Hamas War SITREP for 20 OCT 2023 - Netanyahu Under Fire, Hostages Released, Rafah Gate Closed (Patreon)

Action Report

The information space remains highly problematic, with an extreme amount of disinformation being spread by the proxies of both combatants. Ground fighting continues to be local skirmishes and the neutralization of squad-sized sabotage and reconnaissance teams. It is difficult to ascertain where the truth lies between all the claims in an environment where the ground fighting is somewhere between terrorist and police actions and actual combat between two belligerents. Unless we state, “we were able to independently verify the claim,” or provide three unique sources in the report, the claims should be considered “unverified.” Otherwise, every third sentence would be, “We cannot independently verify the claim.”

Gaza Strip and Southern Israel

There were no reports of significant fighting for the sixth day in a row. Hamas and affiliated militias and terror organizations conducted between 15 to 20 fire missions from Gaza, equivalent to yesterday. The al-Qassem Brigade released a drone video showing the destruction of an Israeli Merkava main battle tank.

The IDF claimed that a senior weapons producer for Hamas, Mahmoud Sabih, and Hamas naval officer Amjad Majed Muhammad Abu ‘Odeh were killed in two separate targeted attacks, among more than 100 strikes on Gaza on October 20.

United Nations 200 Blue Line Border between Israel and Lebanon and Northern Israel

Lebanese Hezbollah and forces aligned with the Iranian Axis of Resistance continued to fire artillery shells, mortars, and antitank rockets into Israel, launching 18 separate attacks striking military and civilian targets. Fighting and artillery strikes were reported in the areas of Netu’a, Biranit, Margaliot, Dovev, and the unpopulated Mount Dov region. Near Margaliot, the IDF claimed one militant was killed, and one IDF soldier wounded in a gun battle between Hezbollah and Israeli forces. The IDF carried out a drone strike on Hezbollah positions near the border.

The IDF announced that the 22,000 residents of Kiryat Shmona would be evacuated due to artillery strikes and rocket attacks in the area.

The West Bank

Up to 20 skirmishes between the IDF and Palestinian-aligned militants were reported in the West Bank, similar to yesterday, despite the call for a general strike. There were numerous protests across the West Bank after the October 19 gun battle at the  Nur Shams refugee camp in Tulkarem, which left six Palestinian militants and one Israeli police officer dead.

Missile, Drone, and Airstrikes on Israel

Rocket attacks from Gaza and Lebanon targeted Metula, Sderot, Arderet, Beit Shemesh, Jerusalem, Ashkelon, and Ashdod, with strikes reported in Sderot that damaged homes and cars.

Middle East Region

In Iraq, the Baghdad Diplomatic Support Center near Baghdad International Airport was hit by three Katyusha rockets fired by Iranian-backed militants. No injuries were reported, with U.S. officials claiming an empty storage area was hit, and no organization took responsibility for the attack. Iranian-backed Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility for a rocket and drone attack on the U.S. al-Asad Air Base in western Iraq. A Pentagon spokesperson confirmed the attack, with local reports stating there were multiple explosions at the base.

The militants also declared that U.S. forces must leave “immediately,” or U.S. forces, bases, and interests will continue to come under attack. “These are only warning messages to them, and serious work has not yet begun.” The statement suggested that further action would be taken along the Israeli-Jordan border if Israel launched an invasion of Gaza.

War Crimes and Human Rights

As an editorial policy, we are referring to Hamas fighters as militants and not terrorists. New intelligence indicates the attack on October 7 was conducted by the equivalent of a brigade in size and demonstrated previously unseen asymmetrical warfare tactics that included combined arms that go beyond a terrorist attack. Further, in calling Hamas terrorists, there is less accountability for the command and control structures, which ordered what can be described as an invasion.

The U.S. and several European governments are reportedly pushing Israel to take an operational pause before launching a ground assault, concerned that any ground attacks within the Gaza Strip will end ongoing intense negotiations to release the hostages being held by Hamas and aligned militias and terrorist organizations.

Hamas militants released two U.S. citizens, Judith Tai Raanan, 59, and her daughter Natalie, 18, in a deal brokered by Israel and Qatar. An unnamed Israeli official denied there was involvement with any nation, saying that Hamas released the pair “unilaterally.” Other Israeli and U.S. officials denied that claim, and U.S. President Joe Biden thanked Qatari and Israeli officials for working together during negotiations. A spokesperson with the Foreign Ministry of Qatar said that the nation was continuing its work and wants to secure the release of all civilian hostages from every nationality.

French news agency AFP withdrew their story that the IDF had demanded the Red Crescent of Palestine to evacuate Al Quds hospital and UNRWA leave five schools. The NGO posted on its Twitter, also known as X, account, “PRCS faces an imminent threat. The IOF demands the evacuation of Al-Quds Hospital, a sanctuary for over 400 patients and around 12,000 displaced civilians. We call the international community to act urgently, averting another catastrophe like Al-Ahli Hospital.”

The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies did not release any statement, and UNRWA never released a statement that they were not ordered to evacuate from any location. The AFP said it withdrew its story due to receiving “erroneous information.”

Despite assurances from Egyptian, Israeli, U.S., and U.N. officials and the presence of U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, the Rafah border crossing did not open on Friday as expected. U.S. President Biden said that it would take another 24 to 48 hours to reopen the crossing, saying, “The highway needs to be repaved, and it was in really bad shape.”

Assessment: Israel bombed the area near the Rafah border crossing between Egypt and Gaza at least three times since October 7, and at least twice after telling Palestinians and trapped foreign nationals to go to Rafah to exit the Gaza Strip. We analyzed one video showing the wall between Egypt and Gaza being bombed and concluded that Israel conducted the strike with 85% to 90% certainty. In our assessment, Israel has negotiated in bad faith. While bombing the road leading to the Rafah crossing is not a war crime, the act was reprehensible. We also maintain that Egyptian officials have not negotiated in good faith and have resisted reopening the crossing due to internal politics, which we have previously documented.

Casualties

We no longer track Israeli or Palestinian casualty numbers due to serious questions about the veracity of reports from both combatants.

Rest of World: There were updates on the number of foreign nationals listed as dead, missing, or confirmed as hostages, with 37 nations reporting 216 of their citizens were killed:

• Argentina - 8 dead (decline), 22 unaccounted
• Australia - 1 dead
• Austria - 4 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Azerbaijan - 3 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Belarus - 3 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Belgium – 2 dead
• Brazil - 3 dead
• Cambodia - 1 dead
• Canada - 6 dead, 2 unaccounted
• Chile - 4 dead, 1 unaccounted
• China - 4 dead, 2 unaccounted
• Columbia – 1 dead, 1 missing
• Estonia – 1 dead
• France - 28 dead, 7 unaccounted
• Germany – 4 dead, 8 hostages
• Honduras – 1 dead
• India – 2 killed, 4 unaccounted
• Ireland - 1 dead
• Italy – 1 dead, 1 unaccounted, 1 hostage
• Kazakhstan – 2 dead
• Mexico - 2 hostages
• Moldova – 1 dead
• Nepal - 10 dead, 1 unaccounted
• The Netherlands – 1 hostage
• Paraguay - 2 unaccounted
• Peru - 2 dead, 5 unaccounted
• Philippines - 4 dead, 2 unaccounted
• Poland – 1 dead
• Portugal - 1 dead, 4 unaccounted
• Romania – 4 dead, 2 unaccounted
• Russia - 19 dead, 7 missing, 2 hostages
• South Africa – 2 dead
• Spain - 1 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Sri Lanka - 2 unaccounted
• Switzerland – 1 dead
• Tanzania - 2 unaccounted
• Thailand - 30 dead, 17 hostages
• Türkiye - 1 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Ukraine - 18 dead, 8 missing
• United Kingdom – 9 dead, 9 unaccounted
• United States - 31 dead, 13 unaccounted
• Uzbekistan – 3 dead, 4 unaccounted

Ukrainian officials confirmed that 18 of their citizens were killed on October 7. Argentinian officials lowered the number of their citizens killed but increased the number of people missing. The United Kingdom and the Russian Federation announced new figures for their citizens.

Israeli-Hamas Politics

Frustration with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu among the Israeli people is growing, with 80% saying that the embattled leader should publicly apologize for the October 7 attacks. Israel’s Channel 12 released an investigation, claiming that security chiefs had significant intel in the early morning hours of October 7 that Hamas would launch an attack, albeit much smaller. The Shin Bet security team was accused of not sharing their intelligence with other government organizations and not alerting IDF units on the Gaza border or local civil defense.

Opposition Leader Yair Lapid has come under fire from his own party members for continuing to refuse to join Israel’s emergency war government. Lapid has refused to join the war government coalition due to Netanyahu’s unwillingness to remove ultranationalist ministers Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir from his cabinet.

Newly appointed hostage envoy for Israel, Gal Hirsch, reportedly lectured European diplomats, rehashing several decades of Israeli-Palestinian politics and blasting Europe for supporting the Oslo Accords peace process. After the meeting, an unnamed diplomat said, “Instead of asking us how we can help in releasing the captives, he came to reprimand us for an agreement signed when none of us were in office.”

Hirsch is a highly controversial figure who was forced to resign from the IDF in 2006 due to his conduct in the Second Lebanon War. In 2015, he was nominated to be the police chief of Gilad Erdan, but a background check revealed deep connections to illegal business transactions.

Editor’s Comment: Have we recently mentioned the issues of corruption within Netanyahu’s government?

Geopolitics

During a private campaign fundraiser, U.S. President Biden told attendees that one of the reasons for the Hamas invasion was to derail ongoing negotiations to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. The accusation has been whispered in Washington, D.C., with significant progress between Israel and Saudi Arabia reportedly made before the Black Sabbath attacks.

Hours later, Palestinian Islamic Jihad spokesperson Nasser Abu Sharif also said the ongoing negotiations to normalize Israel-Saudi relations was an additional motivation to launch the October 7 attacks.

The Russian Federation released a travel advisor for Israel, Lebanon, Jordan, and the Palestinian Territories [Russia’s language – Ed.], strongly recommending that citizens “refrain from traveling to the region.”