Israel-Hamas War SITREP for 17 OCT 2023 - Unbridled Rage (Patreon)

Action Report

The information space remains highly problematic, with an extreme amount of disinformation being spread by the proxies of both combatants. Ground fighting continues to be local skirmishes and the neutralization of squad-sized sabotage and reconnaissance teams. It is difficult to ascertain where the truth lies between all the claims in an environment where the ground fighting is somewhere between terrorist and police actions and actual combat between two belligerents. Unless we state, “we were able to independently verify the claim,” or provide three unique sources in the report, the claims should be considered “unverified.” Otherwise, every third sentence would be, “We cannot independently verify the claim.”

Gaza Strip and Southern Israel

Information about the Anglican-run Al-Ahli al-Arabi hospital is in the War Crimes and Human Rights section.

There were no reports of significant fighting for the third day in a row. Engagements were limited to mortar strikes and the Israel Air Force providing close air support (CAS), interdiction, and suppression missions. Hamas militants and their supporters conducted 30 to 35 fire missions using mortars, targeting Israeli territory from the Gaza Strip. Most of the mortar attacks were directed at settlements in the Israeli Military Zone, which is under mandatory evacuation. The IDF claimed that an airstrike near Zikim killed two Hamas militants. Israel accused Hamas of attacking the Erez crossing on the Gaza-Israeli border. Offices at the closed crossing received light to moderate damage.

During the evening of October 16 – 17, the IDF reported that 200 strikes were executed in the Gaza Strip. Over the last week, the IDF has claimed that several senior leaders of Hamas have been killed, including General and Military Council and commander of the Central Gaza Brigade, Ayman Nofal. We are waiting for independent verification.

We analyzed a video of a missile strike near the Rafah border crossing on October 16, captured by a webcam. One frame captured a glimpse of the munition, providing insights into the type of weapon used. Due to the speed and size, we immediately ruled out a drone-delivered IED, mortar, artillery round, and aerial bomb (unguided or guided, including GBU-39). The missile or rocket arrived following a near-ballistic trajectory, and the single frame captured the tail section. In our assessment, there is a 90% to 95% chance that the munition was a Hellfire missile, which the IAF uses. There is a 4% to 9% chance that it was a TBG-7V rocket fired by an RPG-7. The size of the explosion was more consistent with a Hellfire missile, but the border wall obscured the main impact. Because we only had one frame to work with, there is a small chance that it was a different type of munition yet to be identified. In our assessment, there is overwhelming evidence that the IAF did bomb the crossing on October 16.

United Nations 200 Blue Line Border between Israel and Lebanon and Northern Israel

In the north, Lebanese Hezbollah used small arms, mortar, artillery, and antitank weapons to fire at civilian areas and Israeli positions in at least ten locations, including Margaliot and Zar’it. In Metulla, two IDF soldiers were killed and a civilian wounded by an antitank weapon. The IDF reported they killed four militants north of Hanita, who were attempting to place an IED on the border wall between Lebanon and Israel. Hezbollah reported that four operatives had been killed while “performing jihad.” Based on the IDF and Hezbollah reports, we assess the claim is verified.

The West Bank

Up to twelve clashes were reported between the IDF and Palestinian-aligned militants in the West Bank, with several involving small-arms fire. The intensity and number of attacks remain relatively low after the October 13 “day of rage” peak. The IDF said that since October 7, 440 Palestinians have been arrested, including 220 “affiliated” with Hamas. Palestinian officials reported that since October 7, 61 Palestinians have been killed.

Missile, Drone, and Airstrikes on Israel

Rocket attacks from Gaza targeted Tel Aviv, Ben Gurion Airport, Beersheba, Sderot, and Nahal Oz. Two rockets were fired from Lebanon in the direction of Kiryat Shmoa, with the IDF reporting they were successfully intercepted by the Iron Dome system.

Ashkelon Mayor Tomer Glam blasted Israeli leaders, saying the town has received inadequate support and there are not enough bomb shelters.

Assessment: There have been widespread complaints about inadequate bomb shelters across Israel, despite a 1992 law requiring all new construction to include a safe room or community bomb shelter and the existing network built before 1992. Israelis have complained that some legacy bomb shelters are unusable because they have been unmaintained or co-opted for other purposes.

We do not receive classified information or work directly with any governmental agency. We also do not use classified information that spills into the public domain. We have heard from several sources that the main reason that an Israeli ground offensive has not already started in Gaza, which many widely expected a week ago, is due to the poor state of the IDF. We have received several reports from ground forces of empty warehouses, outdated equipment and munitions, materials improperly stored and unmaintained, and missing gear. After receiving $2 billion in direct military aid, Israel’s request for $10 billion in additional direct military assistance from the United States is almost 25% of all U.S. direct military aid provided to Ukraine through Presidential Drawdown Authority since February 24, 2022. Since 2011, Israel has received approximately $3 billion in military aid from the United States per year.

In Russian and Ukrainian military channels, concern and mockery are being expressed about the lack of anti-drone measures applied to Israeli armor and comments about how so-called “cope cages” that have appeared on some Merkava tanks are inadequate and poorly designed. This lack of action is surprising, considering any large-scale land attack will be met with asymmetrical warfare tactics, and it isn’t unreasonable to plan for FPV drones to be used on the battlefield.

In our assessment, the blame ultimately lies with the Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, who has faced repeated accusations of corruption and, prior to October 7, was attempting to diminish the power of the judiciary to serve personal interests, leading to widescale protests, workers strikes, and mass arrests. Those protests helped diminish IDF readiness on October 7. We are in no way suggesting that the United States should end military aid to Israel, but we are concerned that more questions are not being asked on why the readiness of the IDF has declined to a deplorable state.

Middle East Region

In what may be prophetic words, Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said, “If the crimes of the Zionist (Israeli) regime continue, Muslims and resistance forces will become impatient, and no one can stop them,” referring to the bombings in the Gaza Strip.

During an interview on Turkish news outlet TRT, Hamas political bureau MP Moussa Abu Marzouk expressed frustration that the militant and government body was not receiving more support from Iran. Saying that Iran has had a long-standing position of “unifying the battlefield,” Tehran has only offered “talk.”

The U.S. confirmed that 2,000 personnel were put on alert for potential deployment to the Middle East, with National Security Council for the White House spokesperson John Kirby stating the announcement was about deterrence and not due to any specific threats.

After the catastrophe at the Al-Ahli al-Arabi hospital, widescale protests broke out across the Middle East. Israel issued a travel alert to their citizens in Türkiye and Morocco to leave immediately due to the deteriorating security situation. The United States Department of State released a Level 4 travel advisory for Lebanon, the equivalent of a “go now” order.

Hezbollah has called for a “day of rage” on October 18. In our assessment, regional stability is on a metaphorical knife’s edge.

War Crimes and Human Rights

As an editorial policy, we are referring to Hamas fighters as militants and not terrorists. New intelligence indicates the attack on October 7 was conducted by the equivalent of a brigade in size and demonstrated previously unseen asymmetrical warfare tactics that included combined arms that go beyond a terrorist attack. Further, in calling Hamas terrorists, there is less accountability for the command and control structures, which ordered what can be described as an invasion.

Anglican-run Al-Ahli al-Arabi “Baptist” hospital in Gaza City was rocked by an explosion that killed up to 500 people. Hamas and Israeli officials traded accusations of the strike being caused by an Israeli airstrike or by a failed Hamas rocket launch. At the time of publication, there was not enough conclusive evidence to authoritatively determine responsibility.

The Facts: Between 19:00 and 19:20 hours local time, an explosion was recorded from two angles, striking the parking lot of the Al-Ahli al-Arabi hospital. Video of the immediate aftermath has been geolocated. Gaza officials initially claimed 300 dead, with the number increasing to 500 and, as of the flash report, 600. We cannot independently verify the claims.

The Israeli Defense Forces stated they were not conducting airstrikes during that time frame.

Assessment:Multiple webcams pointed across Gaza appear to confirm that Israeli air strikes were not being conducted in the minutes leading up to the blast. However, we have not established a timeline, and it is impossible to cover every square meter of Gaza with publicly available webcams.

Hamas shared on their Telegram channel around 19:00 local time that they were starting another rocket barrage against Israel. One video shows a series of rockets launching from Gaza, with one going off course and striking in the distance.

Assessment: The resolution and darkness make geolocation, in our assessment, impossible. Bellingcat has also shared that the timing of that video does not align with the timing of the explosion at the hospital.

A second video shows a rocket exploding in midflight and, a few seconds later, explosions on the ground, including one in the area of the hospital.

Assessment: A timeline for that video has not been established, nor has its authenticity been validated.

A third video from the ground is being shared, claiming it shows the moment of the explosion.

Assessment: That video is inconsistent with reports of a missile failure and midair breakup.

We can confirm this is a mass casualty event after a munition struck the hospital.

The geopolitical and security fallout from the explosion has been dramatic. U.S. President Joe Biden has canceled the planned Jordanian Summit with Jordan’s King Abdullah, Egypt’s President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi, and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas.

Assessment: The cancelation and departure were likely due to a threat assessment concluding that security for POTUS was untenable. The State Department has since announced the meeting is "postponed."

From an international law standpoint, the determination of what happened and why will be critical to determine. The intentional bombing of a hospital is a war crime. But, war crimes investigations for an attack this egregious are not conducted on social media and concluded after 30 minutes.

The IDF has a documented history, particularly after 2005, of targeting civilians with increasing impunity within their judicial structure. Hamas has a decades-long documented history of using civilian infrastructure for military purposes and using civilians as human shields.

The IDF continued bombing campaigns despite growing pressure, including from its closest allies, such as the United States and the United Kingdom, to scale back their operations, has created an environment ripe for a civilian mass casualty event.

Hamas' cottage industry-produced rockets have a significantly higher failure rate than similar unguided rockets produced by dedicated arms manufacturers (regardless of nation).

We appeal to our audience to wait until a proper investigation has been completed, although we are pessimistic that the court of public opinion will embrace the final determination.

Hundreds of trucks remain stuck at the Rafah border between Egypt and Gaza. For the third day in a row, the border remained closed despite the assurances from multiple nations to their citizens that a deal had been reached and to stage at the crossing.

Israeli officials reportedly are insisting on inspecting all vehicles crossing into Gaza to assure that weapons or ammunition isn’t being smuggled in and that other aid “won’t benefit Hamas.” Almost a dozen nations are involved in intensive discussions with Israel, Hamas, and Egypt over the impasse.

The United Nations reported that six people were killed and dozens injured with the IAF bombed a UNRWA school in the al-Maghazi refugee camp. “This is outrageous, and it again shows a flagrant disregard for the lives of civilians,” UNRWA commissioner-general Philippe Lazzarini says in a statement. The U.N. had announced that it would begrudgingly honor the Israeli evacuation order but expressly stated that UNRWA schools and hospitals were off-limits for airstrikes and attacks.

An IDF spokesperson told the Guardian that up to 800,000 Palestinians have evacuated from Gaza City and the north after Israel’s evacuation order. When asked when the Israeli ground offensive would begin, Lieutenant Colonel Jonathan Conricus called the future attack an “enhanced military operation,” and it would begin “when the timing suits the goal.”

Family members and hostage experts reported that 21-year-old Mia Schem, who Hamas took hostage on October 7, appeared to be under duress and instructed what to say during a video.

Casualties

We cannot independently verify claims made by either combatant and are reporting from publicly available government sources. In war, all combatants underreport their military causalities, overreport their enemy's military casualties, and overreport civilian causalities. All numbers should be considered unverified. Additionally, organizations such as the United Nations and Red Cross only report casualty numbers after a rigorous investigative process. Because of the requirements, the numbers reported are vastly lower than reality. Thank you for your understanding.

Israel: Officials slightly reduced the death toll, saying it was over 1,400, with 4,399 wounded, including 333 still in hospital from the October 7 attacks. Among the dead are 301 members of the IDF, with two reported as killed in action on October 16.

Hamas/Gaza: The last official update from the Gaza Health Ministry reported that 3,000 Palestinians had been killed and up to 12,500 wounded. We cannot determine if this includes the strike at Al-Ahli al-Arabi Hospital. There have been no official statements from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs/State Department from other nations on dead, wounded, or missing citizens. Hamas and Gaza officials have not released any casualty numbers among militants, but the IDF claimed that 1,500 militants have been killed, mostly during the first 48 hours after the October 7 attacks.

Rest of World: There were updates on the number of foreign nationals listed as dead, missing, or confirmed as hostages, with 36 nations reporting 191 of their citizens were killed:

• Argentina - 7 dead, 15 unaccounted
• Australia - 1 dead
• Austria - 3 dead, 2 unaccounted
• Azerbaijan - 3 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Belarus - 3 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Belgium – 2 dead
• Brazil - 3 dead
• Cambodia - 1 dead
• Canada - 6 dead, 2 unaccounted
• Chile - 4 dead, 1 unaccounted
• China - 4 dead, 2 unaccounted
• Columbia – 1 dead, 1 hostage
• Estonia – 1 dead
• France - 21 dead, 11 unaccounted
• Germany – 4 dead, 8 hostages
• Honduras – 1 dead
• Ireland - 1 dead
• Italy – 1 dead, 1 unaccounted, 1 hostage
• Kazakhstan – 2 dead
• Mexico - 2 hostages
• Moldova – 1 dead
• Nepal - 10 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Paraguay - 2 unaccounted
• Peru - 2 dead, 5 unaccounted
• Philippines - 3 dead, 3 unaccounted
• Poland – 1 dead
• Portugal - 1 dead, 4 unaccounted
• Romania – 4 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Russia - 16 dead, 8 missing, 1 hostage
• South Africa – 2 dead
• Spain - 1 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Sri Lanka - 2 unaccounted
• Switzerland – 1 dead
• Tanzania - 2 unaccounted
• Thailand - 28 dead, 17 hostages
• Türkiye - 1 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Ukraine - 12 dead, 8 missing
• United Kingdom – 6 dead (decrease), 10 unaccounted
• United States - 30 dead, 13 unaccounted
• Uzbekistan – 3 dead, 4 unaccounted

Some of the unaccounted were within Gaza visiting family when the hostilities started.

Israeli-Hamas Politics

No update

Geopolitics

After Prime Minister of Israel Netanyahu snubbed an offer from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the only other Jewish leader of a nation, to make a solitary visit, New York state governor Kathy Hochul said she was headed to Israel to make a solidarity visit. Netanyahu’s office called Zelenskyy’s offer “inappropriate at this time.”

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz arrived in Israel for meetings with Netanyahu and President Isaac Herzog. After his meetings, Scholz tweeted, “My visit to Israel is a visit to friends. Germany stands firmly by Israel’s side. Afterwards I will travel to Egypt to see President Al-Sisi. It’s about protecting the civilian population in the Gaza Strip and avoiding a conflagration.”

During his departure from Ben Gurion airport, Scholz was forced to lie on the ground during an air raid alert promoted by the launch of missiles from Gaza.

In a brief moment of levity, U.S. Secretary of State Blinken, during another meeting with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, was told, “You could have a house here,” in reference to his repeated trips.

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, who is currently in China, will meet President Abdel Fattah al-Sissi on Thursday to discuss how to get humanitarian aid into Gaza. The United Arab Emirates and Russia have called for an emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council after the attack on the Al-Ahli al-Arabi hospital, according to the U.N. representative of the UAE mission.

Air Force One departed from Andrews Air Force Base for Tel Aviv, where United States President Joe Biden is expected to meet with Israeli officials for five hours. Biden said that he is “outraged and deeply saddened by the explosion at the Al Ahli Arab hospital in Gaza, and the terrible loss of life that resulted…the United States stands unequivocally for the protection of civilian life during conflict, and we mourn the patients, medical staff and other innocents killed or wounded in this tragedy.”

Biden said that he had spoken by phone with Netanyahu and King Abdullah, and the U.S. national security team was still “gathering information.” With the tone of the President’s visit totally changed, NSC spokesperson Kirby told reporters that Biden would ask “tough questions” about Israel’s strategy and actions and about solving the issue of providing humanitarian aid to Palestinians through the Rafah border crossing.