Israel-Hamas War SITREP for 16 OCT 2023 - Ball of Confusion (Patreon)

Action Report

The information space remains highly problematic, with an extreme amount of disinformation being spread by the proxies of both combatants. Ground fighting continues to be local skirmishes and the neutralization of squad-sized sabotage and reconnaissance teams. It is difficult to ascertain where the truth lies between all the claims in an environment where the ground fighting is somewhere between terrorist and police actions and actual combat between two belligerents. Unless we state, “we were able to independently verify the claim,” or provide three unique sources in the report, the claims should be considered “unverified.” Otherwise, every third sentence would be, “We cannot independently verify the claim.”

In southern Israel, there were no reports of significant fighting for the second day in a row. Engagements were limited to the exchange of mortar, rocket, and artillery fire, with the IDF supported by the Israel Air Force with close air support (CAS), interdiction, and suppression missions. Hamas militants and their supporters conducted between 25 to 30 fire missions into Israel. Israeli news source Channel 12 reported the Israeli Air Force (IAF) conducted 50 airstrikes during the evening of October 15 – 16. Palestinians in Gaza said it was the heaviest bombardment since Hamas invaded Israel on October 7. During the day, the IAF carried out dozens of additional strikes.

In the north, Lebanese Hezbollah used small arms, mortar, artillery, and antitank weapons to fire at Israeli positions in at least six locations, with the intensity of skirmishes increasing. The IDF responded with direct and indirect tank fire, artillery, and airstrikes. Hezbollah militants claimed they destroyed Israeli surveillance equipment at several checkpoints along the Blue Line.

After the National Emergency Authority of Israel announced it was creating a 2 to 4-kilometer buffer zone on the United Nations Blue Line border with Lebanon, the evacuation of all settlements within two kilometers of the boundary was announced. IDF spokesman Daniel Hagari said that Lebanese Hezbollah was trying to “divert our operational efforts, under the direction and backing of Iran,” confirming our assessment from October 15. Hagari also warned Hezbollah not to get involved, adding, “If Hezbollah dares to test us, the reaction will be deadly.”

The World Health Organization announced it had sent two containers (overseas shipping containers) to Beirut, Lebanon, staging enough medical and trauma supplies to meet the needs of 800 to 1,000 patients. Lebanon’s medical system has been teetering on the brink of collapse for almost five years due to its ongoing economic crisis.

Several clashes were reported between the IDF and Palestinian-aligned militants in the West Bank. The IDF said that since October 7, 330 Palestinians have been arrested, including 210 “affiliated” with Hamas. Palestinian officials reported that since October 7, 58 Palestinians have been killed, a small increase from October 13 and a further indication that the number of clashes and the level of violence is declining.

Hamas fired rockets at the Israeli cities of Sderot, Modiin, Tel Aviv, and Jerusalem. During one barrage, the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, had to evacuate to bomb shelters. After a rocket attack In Holon, a woman was hospitalized with shrapnel wounds.

The number of rocket barrages from Hamas declined again, with no reports of attempted rocket strikes during the night of October 14 – 15. During the day, Sderot was targeted, with at least one home destroyed. In the north, Hamas took responsibility for 20 rockets fired from Lebanon. During a joint press conference with representatives from the United States Senate, Tel Aviv came under fire, the second time that the U.S. delegation had to take cover. On the evening of October 15, Hamas launched a larger barrage of rockets at Ashkelon, Ashdod, Rehovot, and Ramle.

Israel’s Ambassador to the United States, Gilad Erdan, tweeted that “Israel’s goal is the total elimination of Hamas’ terror capabilities.”

Iran made new threats to enter the Israel-Hamas War, while most experts believe that the intention is political and meant to rally additional Arab nation support. Speaking with Al Jazeera, he said that Tehran was prepared to expand the number of war fronts. Officially, the redline that would force the Iranian government to become involved in the war as a combatant is a direct attack on the country by Israel.

War Crimes and Human Rights

As an editorial policy, we are referring to Hamas fighters as militants and not terrorists. New intelligence indicates the attack on October 7 was conducted by the equivalent of a brigade in size and demonstrated previously unseen asymmetrical warfare tactics that included combined arms that go beyond a terrorist attack. Further, in calling Hamas terrorists, there is less accountability for the command and control structures, which ordered what can be described as an invasion.

There was absolute chaos in the information space about the status of the Rafah border crossing between Gaza and Egypt. On Sunday, United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that a deal had been reached to open the border on Monday, and in a prerecorded interview aired by U.S. news agency CBS, U.S. President Joe Biden said he was “confident that there’s going to be an ability for the innocents in Gaza to be able to have access to medicine and food and water.” Moments before the 09:00 local time opening, Egyptian leaders declared the crossing would not open because Israel had not agreed to a ceasefire. A short time later, the office of Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, released a terse statement stating, “At the moment there is no ceasefire for humanitarian aid in the Gaza Strip and the exit of foreigners.”

While conflicting information flooded social media, the Red Crescent wrote on Twitter, also known as X, that fuel and medical supplies had started moving into Gaza. Several minutes later, Reuters-Thompson released an update stating Hamas had also not agreed to open the Rafah checkpoint or to a ceasefire with Israel. Later in the morning, large explosions were heard near the crossing, with the BBC reporting that the IAF had targeted the Gaza-Egypt border wall in the area of the border checkpoint. By midday, it had become clear that Egypt, Israel, and Hamas hadn’t reached an agreement to open the border, or it fell apart during the overnight hours.

France accused Hamas of acting in bad faith and that the government was responsible for preventing Palestinians from evacuating Gaza and humanitarian aid from arriving. During a visit with Egyptian officials, French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna said, “Humanitarian aid must be permitted to enter Gaza because it’s unacceptable to leave women, men, children who aren’t responsible for Hamas’s crimes suffering like this.”

Providing some insight on what may have derailed a deal, if one existed, Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Liberman, speaking on his own behalf, said that the release of additional humanitarian aid, food, and medicine should be contingent on the Red Cross being allowed to make a wellness check of the hostages taken by Hamas on October 7. “They don’t get one crumb; that one liter of water won’t be transferred until the Red Cross sees our abductees. Otherwise, it’s abandoning our hostages.”

The World Health Organization said that if humanitarian aid does not arrive within the next 24 hours, “a real catastrophe” will start. WHO regional director for the Eastern Mediterranean, Ahmed Al-Mandhari, says the Strip must be allowed to receive convoys of aid, claiming there were only 24 hours of water, food, and fuel left.

Secretary Blinken has returned to Tel Aviv for an unannounced meeting with Prime Minister Netanyahu. At the time of publication, it has been reported that the crossing will open on Tuesday. Hundreds of tons of food, water, medicine, and fuel are staged on the Egyptian side, while hundreds of foreign passport holders and dual citizens are waiting on the Gaza side. Within Washington, D.C., the State Department and the White House are reportedly exasperated with Prime Minster Netanyahu.

After eight hours of meetings, Blinken announced through a press release that the U.S. and Israel have agreed to develop a plan to enable humanitarian aid from donor nations and multilateral organizations to reach civilians in Gaza. The timing of when the framework would be completed and implemented was not announced.

The Committee to Protect Journalists reported that since October 7, at least 16 journalists have been killed over the ongoing war. Among the dead are 11 Palestinians, three Israelis, and one Lebanese. Another eight have been wounded, and three more are missing.

Several dozen U.S. citizens departed from Haifa on a ship that is evacuating them to Cyprus, where they can book flights to return to the United States. Only two commercial airlines are still flying to Tel Aviv – El Al and Bluebird. A cruise ship chartered for a humanitarian mission is expected to arrive in Limassol to carry more people to Cyprus.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that the economic bloc was establishing a humanitarian corridor between Gaza and the E.U. through Egypt. The first two flights are slated to start this week, although it remains unclear how any aid will move to Gaza with the border still closed.

Qatari officials denied reports that they were engaged with the leadership of Hamas and pushing for the release of the women, children, and elderly being held hostage. Israeli officials have verified that 199 citizens are being held as prisoners and hostages, including 97 IDF soldiers. Hamas confirmed that it was holding 200 hostages and that other groups were holding another 50. In addition, there remain over 130 foreign nations listed as missing. He referred to foreign hostages as “our guests” and said they would be released when conditions allow for it.

Hamas released a video showing 21-year-old Israeli hostage Mia Schem. The exhausted-looking Schem, who has a wounded arm, said she had been in surgery for three hours and was being cared for, adding that she just wants to return home.

During a press conference in Tehran, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani said Hamas officials were “ready to take necessary measures to release the citizens and civilians held by resistance groups, but their point was that such measures require preparations that are impossible under daily bombardment by the Zionists against various parts of Gaza.” Hamas officials did not confirm that the offer was on the table and if they had changed their prior conditions for release, which included freeing all Palestinians jailed by Israel.

Casualties

We cannot independently verify claims made by either combatant and are reporting from publicly available government sources. In war, all combatants underreport their military causalities, overreport their enemy's military casualties, and overreport civilian causalities. All numbers should be considered unverified. Additionally, organizations such as the United Nations and Red Cross only report casualty numbers after a rigorous investigative process. Because of the requirements, the numbers reported are vastly lower than reality. Thank you for your understanding.

Israel: Officials slightly reduced the death toll, saying it was over 1,400, with 4,121 wounded, including 344 still in hospital from the October 7 attacks. Among the dead are 299 members of the IDF, with ten reported as killed in action on October 15.

Hamas/Gaza: The Gaza Health Ministry reported that 2,778 Palestinians had been killed and 9,042 wounded. There have been no official statements from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs/State Department from other nations on dead, wounded, or missing citizens. Hamas and Gaza officials have not released any casualty numbers among militants, but the IDF claimed that 1,500 militants have been killed, mostly during the first 48 hours after the October 7 attacks.

Rest of World: There were updates on the number of foreign nationals listed as dead, missing, or confirmed as hostages, with 35 nations reporting 187 of their citizens were killed:

• Argentina - 7 dead, 15 unaccounted
• Australia - 1 dead
• Austria - 3 dead, 2 unaccounted
• Azerbaijan - 3 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Belarus - 3 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Belgium – 2 dead
• Brazil - 3 dead
• Cambodia - 1 dead
• Canada - 5 dead, 3 unaccounted
• Chile - 4 dead, 1 unaccounted
• China - 4 dead, 2 unaccounted
• Columbia – 1 dead, 1 hostage
• Estonia – 1 dead
• France - 19 dead, 13 unaccounted
• Germany – 4 dead, 8 hostages
• Honduras – 1 dead
• Ireland - 1 dead
• Italy - 3 hostages
• Kazakhstan – 2 dead
• Mexico - 2 hostages
• Moldova – 1 dead
• Nepal - 10 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Paraguay - 2 unaccounted
• Peru - 2 dead, 5 unaccounted
• Philippines - 3 dead, 3 unaccounted
• Poland – 1 dead
• Portugal - 1 dead, 4 unaccounted
• Romania – 4 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Russia - 16 dead, 8 missing, 1 hostage
• South Africa – 2 dead
• Spain - 1 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Sri Lanka - 2 unaccounted
• Switzerland – 1 dead
• Tanzania - 2 unaccounted
• Thailand - 28 dead, 17 hostages
• Türkiye - 1 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Ukraine - 12 dead, 8 missing
• United Kingdom – 6 dead (decrease), 10 unaccounted
• United States - 30 dead, 13 unaccounted
• Uzbekistan – 3 dead, 4 unaccounted

Some of the unaccounted were within Gaza visiting family when the hostilities started. Israeli officials reported only four Thai nationals were killed on Friday, while Thai officials maintain that 21 of their citizens died.

Israeli-Hamas Politics

Israeli political experts are reporting that Prime Minister Netanyahu is resistant to allowing humanitarian aid into Gaza, despite intense international pressure, due to his concern that he will lose support among nationalists and other hardliners. By all indications and recent surveys, Netanyahu is politically dead within Israel and highly unlikely to survive a post-war vote under any circumstance. The loss of the far-right would further erode his political influence.

Geopolitics

The U.S. Senate has started hearings to confirm Jack Lew as the new ambassador to Israel. Currently, the U.S. does not have an ambassador for the Jewish state or neighboring Egypt. Both countries are critical to solving the growing humanitarian crisis in Gaza. At least one Senator, Tom Cotton, was against Lew’s confirmation, calling him an Iranian sympathizer.

The U.S. State Department confirmed that President Biden will visit Israel on Wednesday. Biden will also travel to Jordan to visit with Jordan’s King Abdullah, Egypt’s President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi, and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas.

Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin by telephone. The Kremlin and Russian state media have been critical of Israel in its official position, going as far as to compare Israel to Nazi Germany. Netanyahu reportedly told the Russian leader that Israel would not stop unit it “destroys the military and governmental capabilities of Hamas.” Israel has a significant Russian expat and immigrant population, with some expressing shock at the lack of support from Moscow. Israeli-Russian relations are complicated due to Russia’s influence and military presence in Syria and its alliance with Iran.

A Russian motion in the U.N. Security Council for an immediate ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas War was voted down with five countries in favor, four against, and six abstaining. A similar resolution presented by Brazil will be considered on Tuesday.

Foreign Minister of Columbia, Alvaro Leyva, said that Israeli envoy Gali Dagan should “at the minimum apologize and leave” after Israel criticized President Gustavo Petro for comments made against Israel. The statement stopped short of declaring Dagan persona non grata, which would force the diplomat to leave the South American nation.