Israel-Hamas War SITREP for 15 OCT 2023 - Water Flows Again, Will Evacuees and Humanitarian Aid? (Patreon)

Action Report

The information space remains highly problematic, with an extreme amount of disinformation being spread by the proxies of both combatants. Ground fighting continues to be local skirmishes and the neutralization of squad-sized sabotage and reconnaissance teams. It is difficult to ascertain where the truth lies between all the claims in an environment where the ground fighting is somewhere between terrorist and police actions and actual combat between two belligerents. Unless we state, “we were able to independently verify the claim,” or provide three unique sources in the report, the claims should be considered “unverified.” Otherwise, every third sentence would be, “We cannot independently verify the claim.”

In southern Israel, there were no reports of significant fighting or naval activity. The IDF claimed a single Hamas militant was killed in Nir Am during an exchange of gunfire. Israeli officials started evacuating the estimated 10,000 residents remaining in Sderot, with the town coming under fire by Hamas. Evacuations of part of Ashkelon also started.

In the north, Lebanese Hezbollah fired antitank weapons into the settlement of Shtula, setting buildings on fire and killing one civilian and wounding three. Hezbollah took responsibility for several border incidents involving antitank weapons, mortars, and artillery in the Shebaa Farms region. Residents in the border settlements of Manara, Yiftah, Margaliot, and Ramot Naftali were told to shelter in place during a series of missile and antitank rocket attacks. The IDF and Hezbollah exchanged gunfire near the town of Kiryat Shmona, with the militant group taking responsibility for attacking a border checkpoint.

The Israeli Air Force conducted multiple airstrikes in Lebanon targeting Hezbollah positions. A Hezbollah spokeswoman, Rana Sahili, says the increase in the intensity and number of exchanges between Israel and militants doesn’t indicate Hezbollah has decided to fully enter into the Hamas-Israel war. The fighting on the border is “only skirmishes” and represents a “warning,” she says.

ASSESSMENT: Lebanese Hezbollah is conducting harassing attacks in a likely attempt to lock Israeli forces in place and force their commanders to plan contingencies for a protracted two-front war.

The IDF announced they were creating a buffer zone up to 4-kilometer in depth along parts of the United Nations Blue Line border between Israel and Lebanon, restricted to military personnel only. In areas where the buffer zone has not been created, civilians within 2 kilometers of the border have been advised to “stay close” to bomb shelters.

The United Nations reported its headquarters in Naquora, Lebanon, was hit by a rocket, with no injuries as staff had taken shelter. In a press release, UNIFIL wrote, “We continue to actively engage with authorities on both sides of the Blue Line to de-escalate the situation, but regrettably, despite our efforts, military escalation continues. We urge all the parties involved to cease fire and allow us, as peacekeepers, to help find solutions.”

Speaking on the United States television news channel CBS, White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said the possibility of a new battlefront on the Israel-Lebanon border exists. “We can’t rule out that Iran would choose to get directly engaged [in] some way. We have to prepare for every possible contingency.” Sullivan added that because Iran has backed Hezbollah and Hamas for decades, it is “a risk that we have been mindful of since the start.”

Reports that allies have asked Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu to reign in Defense Minister Yoav Gallant appear to be true, with the minister taking a more conciliatory tone. In a video discussing the situation on the border with Lebanon, Gallant said, “We have no interest in a war in the north. We don’t want to escalate the situation…If Hezbollah chooses the path of war, it will pay a very heavy price… But if it restrains itself, we’ll respect the situation and keep things the way they are despite shooting from both sides.”

There wasn’t any significant activity reported in the West Bank by Israeli or Palestinian officials.

The number of rocket barrages from Hamas declined again, with no reports of attempted rocket strikes during the night of October 14 – 15. During the day, Sderot was targeted, with at least one home destroyed. In the north, Hamas took responsibility for 20 rockets fired from Lebanon. During a joint press conference with representatives from the United States Senate, Tel Aviv came under fire, the second time that the U.S. delegation had to take cover. On the evening of October 15, Hamas launched a larger barrage of rockets at Ashkelon, Ashdod, Rehovot, and Ramle. Videos circulating allegedly showing Israeli laser weapons intercepting rockets fired by Hamas is fake.

Israeli airstrikes continued in Gaza, but the operational tempo has slowed.

U.S. Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) told reporters that he was instructing the relevant committee heads to prepare aid packages for Israel that would be ready “within the next few weeks,” adding, “We’re not waiting for the House.”

Israel has reportedly requested precision-guided bombs, Iron Dome interceptors 155 mm artillery rounds, JDAM kits to convert unguided bombs into smart bombs, and intelligence support.

War Crimes and Human Rights

As an editorial policy, we are referring to Hamas fighters as militants and not terrorists. New intelligence indicates the attack on October 7 was conducted by the equivalent of a brigade in size and demonstrated previously unseen asymmetrical warfare tactics that included combined arms that go beyond a terrorist attack. Further, in calling Hamas terrorists, there is less accountability for the command and control structures, which ordered what can be described as an invasion.

The IDF announced it had established a green corridor for Palestinian evacuees from 10:00 hours to 13:00 hours local time on Sunday. There were no reported incidents involving Israeli attacks or Hamas interference. An estimated 600,000 residents have heeded warnings to evacuate to the south.

Israeli officials vehemently denied claims by Hamas that the IDF attacked a convoy of Palestinians evacuating from the northern part of Gaza, killing up to 70. Spokesperson Jonathan Conricus accused Hamas of conducting a “false flag” operation and said that he expects the IDF to release proof of its claim in the coming days.

Israeli officials reported they had reestablished the water supply to southern Gaza, a day after a U.S. official reported that Israel had agreed to restart the flow and permit food and medical supplies into the region.

After visiting with Egyptian officials in Cairo, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters that the Rafah border crossing between Gaza and Egypt would be opened on Monday to allow humanitarian aid to enter the Gaza Strip. “We’re putting in place with the United Nations, with Egypt, with Israel, with others, the mechanism by which to get the assistance and to get it to people who need it.”

At the time of publication, there were favorable indications that the Rafah border crossing would be opened, permitting foreign nationals and dual-passport holders to exit and for humanitarian aid of food and medical supplies to enter.

Blinken dismissed suggestions to mass relocate Palestinians from Gaza to Sinai, calling the idea a “non-starter,” adding, “We believe that people should be able to stay in Gaza, their home…but we also want to make sure that they’re out of harm’s way and that they’re getting the assistance they need.” Blinken said that Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and other regional leaders were against mass relocation, and for that reason, the United States would not support it.

Qatari officials reportedly are pressuring the leadership of Hamas to release the women, children, and elderly they are holding hostage. Israeli officials have verified that 155 citizens are being held as prisoners and hostages, including 97 IDF soldiers. Up to 200 Israelis are being held in captivity, in addition to dozens of foreign nationals.

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for the immediate and unconditional release of all hostages held by Hamas and for Israel to provide unrestricted access to the Gaza Strip. “Each one of these two objectives is valid in themselves. They should not become bargaining chips, and they must be implemented because it is the right thing to do.”

Casualties

We cannot independently verify claims made by either combatant and are reporting from publicly available government sources. In war, all combatants underreport their military causalities, overreport their enemy's military casualties, and overreport civilian causalities. All numbers should be considered unverified. Additionally, organizations such as the United Nations and Red Cross only report casualty numbers after a rigorous investigative process. Because of the requirements, the numbers reported are vastly lower than reality. Thank you for your understanding.

Israel: Officials announced that the death toll surpasses 1,500 with 3,621 wounded, including 358 still in hospital from the October 7 attacks. Among the dead are 289 members of the IDF, with ten reported as killed in action on October 14.

Hamas/Gaza: The Gaza Health Ministry reported that 2,329 Palestinians had been killed and 9,042 wounded. There have been no official statements from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs/State Department from other nations on dead, wounded, or missing citizens. Hamas and Gaza officials have not released any casualty numbers among militants, but the IDF claimed that 1,500 militants have been killed, mostly during the first 48 hours after the October 7 attacks.

Rest of World: There were updates on the number of foreign nationals listed as dead, missing, or confirmed as hostages, with 35 nations reporting 185 of their citizens were killed:

• Argentina - 7 dead, 15 unaccounted
• Australia - 1 dead
• Austria - 2 dead (decrease), 2 unaccounted
• Azerbaijan - 3 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Belarus - 3 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Belgium – 2 dead
• Brazil - 2 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Cambodia - 1 dead
• Canada - 5 dead, 3 unaccounted
• Chile - 4 dead, 1 unaccounted
• China - 4 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Columbia – 1 dead, 1 hostage
• Estonia – 1 dead
• France - 19 dead, 13 unaccounted
• Germany – 4 dead, 8 hostages
• Honduras – 1 dead
• Ireland - 1 dead
• Italy - 3 hostages
• Kazakhstan – 2 dead
• Mexico - 2 hostages
• Moldova – 1 dead
• Nepal - 10 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Paraguay - 2 unaccounted
• Peru - 2 dead, 3 unaccounted
• Philippines - 3 dead, 3 unaccounted
• Poland – 1 dead
• Portugal - 1 dead, 4 unaccounted
• Romania – 4 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Russia - 16 dead, 8 missing, 1 hostage
• South Africa – 2 dead
• Spain - 1 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Sri Lanka - 2 unaccounted
• Switzerland – 1 dead
• Tanzania - 2 unaccounted
• Thailand - 28 dead, 17 hostages
• Türkiye - 1 dead, 1 unaccounted
• Ukraine - 12 dead, 8 missing
• United Kingdom - 7 dead, 17 unaccounted (per BBC)
• United States - 30 dead, 13 missing
• Uzbekistan – 2 dead

Some of the unaccounted were within Gaza visiting family when the hostilities started. Updated: The editing artifact stating there was a discrepancy in the number of Thai nationals who were killed has been removed.

Israeli and Hamas Politics

The Palestinian Fatah party distanced itself from statements made by Abbas Zaki on Hezbollah-controlled Al-Mayadeen TV. The Wafa news agency quoted an unnamed Fatah official who said, “Abbas Zaki only represents himself and does not express the position of the Fatah movement or the policy of the Palestine Liberation Organization.”

President of Palestine Habbas made the strongest statement to date against Hamas while speaking to the President of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro. Palestinian news agency WAFA published, The president also stressed that Hamas' policies and actions do not represent the Palestinian people, and the policies, programs, and decisions of the (Palestine Liberation Organization) represent the Palestinian people as their sole legitimate representative.” Several hours later, the quote was removed from the article.

Geopolitics

During an interview on the news program 60 Minutes, U.S. President Joe Biden said that Hamas needs to be destroyed and “engaged in barbarism that is as consequential as the Holocaust” and called Hamas militants a bunch of cowards who are “hiding behind the civilians.” During his interview, Biden called for the so-called two-state solution, declaring that there needs to be a Palestinian government and a Palestinian state.

The official IRNA news agency said President of Iran Ebrahim Raisi and President of France Emmanuel Macron spoke over the phone, with the Iranian leader warning that if Israeli military action continues in Gaza, Iran will be forced to enter the war.

Israel announced it was halting weapons and “security” exports to Columbia after President President Gustavo Petro likened the Israeli military to Nazis. The Foreign Ministry of Israel summoned the Columbian ambassador, Margarita Manjarez, to protest Petro’s comments. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lior Hayat said, “Israel condemns the president’s statements, which constitute support for the horrific acts of Hamas terrorists, inflame antisemitism, harm representatives of the State of Israel, and threaten the safety of the Jewish community in Colombia. As the first measure taken in response, Israel decided to stop security exports to Colombia.”