Flash Report 08 OCT 2023 - 16:30 PDT - Israel-Hamas War Update (Patreon)

Casualties

We cannot independently verify claims made by either combatant and are reporting from publicly available government sources. In war, all combatants underreport their military causalities, overreport their enemy's military casualties, and overreport civilian causalities. All numbers should be considered unverified. Additionally, organizations such as the United Nations and Red Cross only report casualty numbers after a rigorous investigative process. Because of the requirements, the numbers reported are vastly lower than reality. Thank you for your understanding.

Israel: Local officials reported "at least" 700 Israelis have been killed and another 300 confirmed dead, 2,315 wounded, and hundreds missing. 1,435 are reportedly hospitalized, with 360 in critical condition. Most of the number killed are among civilians. Rescue workers report they recovered 260 bodies at the music festival that Hamas militants overran.

Hamas claims to be holding "over 100" as prisoners, and Islamic Jihad claims to be holding 30. The number includes civilians, soldiers, and foreign nationals from at least three countries. 

The governments of the United States, Ukraine, Nepal, Thailand, France, and the United Kingdom have confirmed citizens were killed by Hamas, including ten Nepalese. Germany has not commented on the status of a woman shared in a video partially stripped and motionless in the bed of a pickup truck in Gaza. Russia has confirmed one of its citizens is being held hostage. Mexico reported at least two of their citizens were taken as hostages.

Hamas militants also killed Bedouins who live in southern Israel, with the council of unrecognized villages reporting the death of Abed Alrahman Atef Alziadna. Another 40 Israeli Bedouins are reported missing.

Hamas/Gaza: The Gaza Health Ministry reported that 413 have been killed and 2,300 wounded. They claim that 78 children have been killed and entire multi-generation families wiped out. 

There have been no official statements from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs/State Department from other nations on dead, wounded, or missing citizens.

The Battlefront

The amount of misinformation/disinformation is staggering, and the IDF has not been as forthcoming as the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the situation. Regrettably, some sources that have been very reliable for open-source intelligence about the Russia-Ukraine War have been wildly inaccurate about the situation in Israel.

Government claims overnight (USA overnight) that militants had been pushed out of most areas were untrue. Likewise, claims by Hamas of deeper advances are also false. Both combatants have suffered significant losses, and Israel is trying to take the initiative on the battlefield but remains reactionary.

Residents of Sderot have been told to continue to shelter in place, with the IDF reporting that "infiltrators" remain in the city. The police station was cleared, with fighting continuing in the western part of the city. The town of Ofakim is back under IDF control, which was the deepest advance made by Hamas. Fighting was ongoing in Be'eri, but it has been hours since the last report. The military checkpoint and base at Zikim are reportedly back under Israeli control, but we cannot independently verify the report.

Clashes between Palestinians and Israelis were intensifying in East Jerusalem and in parts of the West Bank. Fires dotted the Shufat Refugee Camp, where either smoke grenades, tear gas, or OC gas was deployed.

In the north, Hezbollah shelled Israel and was met with counterbattery fire. 

Rocket attacks have continued targeting Sderot, Tel Aviv, and Ashkelon.

Air strikes on the Gaza Strip have continued, but it is extremely difficult to get accurate information with old videos and pictures being circulated and unverifiable claims being made. According to Trey Yingst, Fox News combat reporter, most of the strikes have been on the edges of the Gaza Strip, and civilians are heeding warnings from Gaza and Israeli officials to move to the city center.

We are skeptical of the Wall Street Journal report from unnamed U.S. sources that Iran had assisted Hamas for weeks in the planning and execution of the ongoing war. However, we are not dismissing the claim out of hand as we maintain our assessment that Hamas appears to have received significant help.

A Correction

Claim: The release of $6 billion in Iranian oil money to free five U.S. hostages funded Hamas and today's war.

Facts: Not one penny of that money has been transferred to Iran, and the money did not come from the U.S. treasury. The $6 billion was seized from Iranian oil sales and is sitting in South Korean banks - as it has the whole time. The money is in South Korea because the original transactions were in won, and no one wanted/wants to convert the money. The money was never going to be released to Iran as a cash benefit. Not a single won has been transferred.

Errors and Omissions: On September 18, as part of the deal with Iran, the money was moved to a Qatar Bank via money transfer through Europe. The Washington Institute for Near East Policy wrote an outstanding explainer on this. The rest of the "Facts" section remains accurate. The money did not come from the U.S. treasury and was South Korean funds for the purchase of Iranian oil. The money has sat in South Korean banks, and the money has not nor will be released as a cash benefit and remains under oversight. To the best of our abilities, no funds have been allocated from the $6 billion, but as the Washington Institute accurately points out, it does represent $6 billion that the Iranian government could spend on legitimate humanitarian causes, freeing up $6 billion for other needs.

Disinformation

An edited press release from the White House was widely circulated and shared by multiple news agencies, claiming the United States was sending $8 billion in military aid to Israel. The document is fake and was based on a July 25, 2023, memo for $400 million in aid to Ukraine.

President of the United States, Joe Biden, does not have unilateral authority to create a new military funding package for Israel or any other nation without an act from Congress. He can only release funds and aid based on existing United States law and any dollars that carried over from the 2023 budget and were unspent (yes, there are some if, ors, ands, and buts) Congress cannot approve any measures until they elect a new Speaker of the House.

Will Israel Send Ground Forces into the Gaza Strip 

Reports that the IDF was operating in the Gaza Strip are likely partially accurate. There aren't any major operations ongoing at this time, but it is likely that special operation forces are in the area. The Israeli government has repeatedly said that they will be entering the Gaza Strip with a significant force. There is a lot of speculation about "when," including within the next 48 hours. We don't speculate or take guesses on military timetables. The IDF will start operations when they are ready.

The Israeli government has formally declared war and has a stated goal of the complete destruction of Hamas, its infrastructure, funding, and command structure.

And that's what we know.