Flash Report 18 SEP 2023 - 14:10 PDT - The Kilo-Class Rostov-on-Don is Destroyed (Patreon)

In an operational security breach, two photos have emerged from the graving dry dock in Sevastopol showing damage to the Rostov-on-Don before the aft area was tarped. The pixelation is due to some open-source intelligence drama (we are using the watermarked images; we're not involved in the drama and credit other people's work).

What have we learned?

The damage to the Rostov-on-Don is more extensive than initially believed, and the submarine is destroyed.

There are two penetrations of the pressure hull. First, at the bow through the torpedo room, which was caused by a Storm Shadow (or SCALP-E) cruise missile. The second one is amidships and appears to have blown through the pressure hull from the inside of the submarine. This indicates a massive internal overpressure that has likely caused extensive damage through at least half of the internals of the sub. It is 99.99999% certain there weren't munitions on the submarine when it went to dry dock in the first place for routine maintenance. The damage would be even more catastrophic if this were caused by a torpedo or missile cook-off.

Although pixelated, smoke is still rising, indicating there was extensive internal fire damage. Multiple analysts and experts have declared the Kilo-Class 636.3 Rostov-on-Don destroyed. Further, Sevastopol lacks the facilities to repair this much damage. The sub will have to be moved to a barge and towed to a better-equipped repair facility.

Why does the green tarp cover the aft section now? Only theories and hot takes.