Russia-Ukraine Flash Report for 27 JULY 2023 13:15 - Ukraine Advances Deeper (Patreon)

The crack in the windscreen grew bigger in two places. The bigger story is in the Orikhiv Operational Area.

In our analysis, we've been recommending to watch Verbove, not Robotyne. Ukrainian forces have breached the first line of defense between the two settlements, making significant advances in the direction of Verbove, which we do not believe is the Ukrainian objective.

On July 26, 2023, in the SITREP, we outlined how this is a weak spot in the Russian defensive lines. Breach the area between, skirt Verbove to the west, breach the T-401 Highway where the Surovikin Line is, and you're through the Russian static defenses. That would indicate that Berdyansk is the goal and not Melitopol. When you look at the placement of Russian defenses and troop positions, it becomes clear enough to say it out loud.

Yesterday we reported that Ukrainian forces are south of Robotyne on the east flank. We can confirm that Ukrainian forces have significantly widened the wedge to Verbove. The map has been updated.

There is a video we are working on geolocating that shows a lone Ukrainian armored vehicle arriving at the Surovikin line, driving to the tank trap, and falling in. We don't know if the vehicle was crewed, had a rock placed on the accelerator to advance as a test, or was remote-controlled. The bigger story is this, it was either the luckiest armored vehicle in all of Ukraine, or the reports from Russian troops criticizing the Surovikin line are true. The berms to the approaches block the view of defenders, and they are inadequately mined. Or, the vehicle picked the perfect straight-line route without mines, and Russian defenders had no interest in shooting at it.

Ukrainian losses to achieve the breach are severe - potentially a battalion combat destroyed. Most of the equipment used was older Russian tanks and BMPs, not all. There are unconfirmed reports that some of the BMPs were remote-controlled with mine rollers and sacrificed to breach the minefield.

Russian disinfo sources keep showing old videos, taking pictures and videos to show old losses, and showing the same losses from different angles, making it harder to do an accurate count - but could be up to 40 infantry fighting vehicles and tanks lost.

Breathe.

This is the problem with static defenses. Ukraine doesn't need to breach 1,200 kilometers of minefields and the Surovikin (or in the east Prigozhin) Lines. They have to breach one area. Once through, they need to execute a rapid advance and drive a wedge at the breach to expand it. Once that is accomplished, all 1,200 kilometers of the defensive lines become useless. The minefields and trenches become obstacles for Russian troops if they pull back, and open areas create opportunities for encirclements. However, neither combatant has shown the capability or willingness to force a mass surrender. 

It takes a lot to make the breach. The bigger story is the advance was successful, contrary to Russian claims. Making the breach comes at a high price. History shows that.

Is this the "big one?" No. But it is a pretty clear sign of where Ukraine intends to go. The envelope would get opened today, but...

The other area is the Lyubymivka-Staromlynivka Operational Direction.

Staromaiorske was liberated by Ukrainian forces, with pictures and videos showing Ukrainian troops in control of the town. Urozhaine is still under Russian control, but the updated map says it all. This is untenable.

The Surovikin Line is on the southern edge of Staromlynivka, and Russia has another problem. The area south of Staromaiorske is developed, and the Russian minefields have clear breaches in them. The roads that Russia is using for their ground line of communication (GLOC). Ukrainian artillery will be able to move further south once Urozhaine is taken, and a "goodwill gesture" is likely. That means fire control on the GLOCs which prevents Russian movements and Russian attempts to mass mine the roads. They can absolutely be remotely mined and have mines placed on them, but this won't match the density we've seen in Zaporizhzhia.

Some additional activity. Ukrainian forces are starting to push Russian troops back in the direction of Raihorodka in the Svatove Operational Area.

Across the axes where Ukraine is engaged in active offensive operations, there is a clear pattern of steady progress that has developed. The complaints of Russian artillery shortages and more units reaching a state of combat ineffective or combat destroyed are growing.

Ukraine having the ability to conduct combat air patrols to establish air parity would further help speed up the process.

Closing thought, the severe weather that will move through Ukraine in the next 48 hours will slow the operational tempo. Russian logistics and supply have more issues than Ukraine's, but moving forces up and consolidating positions will be critical to help assure they don't get pushed out during the coming rains.

That's what we know.