Russia-Ukraine Flash Report for 26 JULY 2023 16:45 - Has the Main Offensive Begun in the Orikhiv Operational Area? (Patreon)

Maybe.

In yesterday's SITREP, we reported that Russian milbloggers were freaking out about a large Ukrainian offensive starting in the area of Orikhiv. We were instantly skeptical because Russian milbloggers have periodically screamed, "large Ukrainian offensive" in this area since June 2022. They have either turned out to be completely untrue or operations of units that are between platoon and company-sized, committing recon in force, probing attacks, testing defenses, or taking advantage of an opportunity to capture a Russian position.

Shortly after hitting [ENTER], there were fresh reports that the Ukrainian 10th Corps, which is compromised of experienced troops with additional Western training and equipment being moved up to the area. The 10th Corps has largely been believed to be the formation that would be used to breach the Surovikin Line in the south or the Prigozhin Line in the east. However, we had reported that elements of the Ukrainian 9th Corps were reaching the point of combat ineffective and that troop rotations had started. So it is unclear if the 10th Corps is being brought in as part of a rotation before the reconstitution of the 9th Corps becomes a multiple-month process that likely stretches into 2024 or if this is the big push.

Ukrainian forces have been driving a wedge between Robotyne and Verbove for two weeks now, and there are videos recorded earlier in the week that convincingly show Ukrainian forces are now southeast of Robotyne. That's before the chatter about a larger push. We have been honoring the previous request by Ukrainian officials to support operational security and have only reported on things that are in the public domain while making informed analyses using tools like satellite imagery to track Russian artillery patterns. Long-time readers (you can't see visuals on the podcast) will remember we did a lot of this last year, sharing satellite images showing the progression of artillery strikes to reflect Russian or Ukrainian advances. How can you tell the difference? Ukrainian strikes are precise. They appear in tight clusters on roads, treelines, and defensive areas. Russian artillery patterns show craters - everywhere. 

The New York Times is reporting that two unnamed sources in the Pentagon have declared the main offensive has started. If you're new here, our view on "unnamed sources" is rather dim. Yes, I readily admit we have used "trust us" unnamed sources in the past, but their track record (Moskva sinking, Izyum collapse, Kharkiv counteroffensive, Kherson build-up, Ivan Khurs not sunk) speak for themselves. 

We are not quite ready to say, "It has begun," until there is more intelligence. We agree with the informed assessments in the Orikhiv areas and hinted in yesterday's SITREP that Ukrainian forces are doing better than publicly reported in the Robotyne area. We have high confidence, based on analysis of satellite images, that Ukrainian forces have pushed Russian troops out of the northern part of Robotyne.

But what about Sladkov's claim and video of 20 destroyed Ukrainian armor pieces? Surprise! It's the same group of vehicles from June, with four more added in the area. The correct answer is four infantry mobility vehicles added to the area. This is another reason we're hesitant to say, yes, it has started.

Other News

If you look at our war map and you look at other war maps from yesterday (not the updates they did today), you'll notice a lot of maps pulled back the Russian advance in the Barova direction. Some people accepted the WarGonzo report at face value of Russian troops being 2 km away from Kopanky. It's unclear if Russian forces even reached Nadiya, and we will be adjusting our map. This is still an area of concern.

Berkhivka, Klishchiivka, Andriiva, and Staromaiorkse remain contested or unoccupied gray areas. After a lull, we're seeing more videos of Russian troops being taken POW, and Ukraine is claiming that a platoon-sized group from the 247th Airborne Assault (VDV) was taken prisoner near Klishchiivka. We are also seeing a sharp increase in the number of Russian brigade and regiment commanders killed this week.

One of our subscribers made an excellent observation that is worth repeating. Ukrainian and Russian forces, for various reasons, destroyed all the bridges across the Bakhmutkova River in central Bakhmut. If Russia loses the GLOCs on the northern and southern flanks of the city, maintaining and supplying Russian troops east of the river is going to be very difficult. Ukrainian forces avoid strong points. The strategy is becoming clearer. 

Last thought. It pains us to admit it, but the Russian 200th Arctic Motor Brigade and the 9th Motor Rifle Regiment clinging to Dubovo-Vasylivka and preventing a western push from the edge of Berkhivka continue to do what is close to the impossible.