Russia-Ukraine Flash Report for 24 JULY 2023 13:15 - Ukrainian Forces Enter Klishchiivka (Patreon)

Significant changes north and south of Bakhmut and within the city. In order of importance.

Klishchiivka Operational Area

Ukrainian forces took the last high point west of Andriivka during the day (Seattle's overnight), which, as we previously assessed, has caused a cascade of events. Russian defenses west of Andriivka collapsed, with a "withdrawal to more strategic defensive positions," the hamlet itself. Andriivka had a prewar population of about 75 people. Russia lost its final observation and fire control point over Andriivka, Klishchiivka, and the railroad line. We have moved Andriivka to contested.

With the loss of the high point and the Russian withdrawal, Ukrainian forces have entered and secured the southern tip of Klishchiivka and have established full fire control of the settlement and all approaches. Russian forces have also pulled back from attempts to hold any part of the heights to the west or the approaches. Fighting is ongoing on the edge of the westernmost street. Reportedly Russian airborne (VDV) forces are fighting defense, which is not their prescribed role.

Ukraine liberated more territory in the Soledar-Bakhmut-Klishchiivka Operational Areas in the last 24 hours than in the last two weeks.

In our assessment, Klishchiivka and Andriivka are untenable for Russia. Unlike several other settlements that are stuck in the status of unoccupied gray areas, Ukraine can establish full control of both settlements.

Expect the Russian information space to declare these "small and insignificant" and claim thousands of Ukrainian casualties for nothing. In reality, the loss of Klishchiivka and Andriivka will make holding Zelenopillya, Kurdyumivka, and later Opytne, in that order, much harder. Once Ukrainian forces take control of the train tracks, they will likely advance more rapidly to Zelenopillya and Kurdyumivka, which will become untenable once Andriivka is taken.

When Klishchiivka is taken, and we believe it is a "when," this area will be renamed the Zaitseve Operational Direction.

Bakhmut Operational Area

We've adjusted the map in western and southwestern Bakhmut and compressed the gray area. Multiple videos have shown Ukrainian troops freely moving in the ruins west of Yuvileyna Avenue. Although they are not coming under fire and there are no sounds of artillery or small arms, Ukrainian forces are moving quickly and not lingering outside, so we maintain this is a gray area. We also compressed the gray area east of Khromove, knowing that the advance came from this direction. We maintain that Ukrainian forces have reached the administrative boundary of the Rose District and the southern tip of the Pivnichnyi Reservoir to Zelena Avenue. In our assessment, Ukraine controls 3% of Bakhmut, which may be slightly conservative. Ukrainian forces are now in two areas instead of three, with the pockets near Yvileyna Avenue and Khromove merging together. The Ukrainian "advance" is more due to established fire control over the city and Russian commanders unwilling to commit troops west of the train tracks.

We elected not to update the map at Berkhivka, but there is a change. Due to Ukrainian fire control on the M-03/E-40 Highway and the T-513 Highway and continued pressure from the south, all of Berkhivika is a gray area, with neither combatant able to establish control. This change favors Ukraine, pushing Russian troops from the northern part of the settlement. However, Ukrainian forces are in a similar situation in the south and can't advance into the unoccupied zone. 

Every square meter Ukraine chips away around Dubovo-Vasylivka makes it much harder for Russia to hold that salient. Take Dubovo-Vasylivka, and Ukrainian forces will be able to strengthen their fire control over Bakhmut, Paraskoviivka, Krasna Hora, and Soledar.

Why is Ukraine able to advance here with a smaller force and seems frozen at other axes?

Landmines. At Bakhmut, much of this territory was captured between February and May, and the city of Bakhmut was never fully captured (pedantically). Russia has not been able to saturate these areas with landmines, which is aiding. Further, Russian forces have faced some of Ukraine's most competent units since the end of winter - the 92nd, 93rd, and 3rd Brigade, which appear to be competing for the title of "gods of war."

The second reason is the quality of troops. We have repeatedly assessed and proven that when Chechen Akhmat arrives in an area for offensive or defensive operations, it is the beginning of the end. The Akhmat forces sent to Bakhmut were, at best, combat ineffective after months of vicious fighting in Marinka, which resulted in 100 to 150 meters of gains.