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Are you new to our Patreon? You need to click on the link to download the PDF attachment, which has links to all the videos referenced in the podcast.

This is Report 443, which is 61 pages long.

What's the big story? This was a "we need to hit enter day"; otherwise, the report would never get published. A lot of breaking news. A Russian ammunition depot in Oktyabrskoye has been hit by a Storm Shadow missile, and the ammunition cook-off is the largest one since August 2022.

What's the second story? Two Russian milbloggers/reporters killed in Ukraine in separate incidents.

Bonus Story: Too many too pick - a massive amount of news today.

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Anonymous

Does anyone know of any legitimate reason for military trucks to be located inside nuclear reactor turbine halls or to deny inspectors access to halls or rooftops? I’m doubtful. So why isn’t the IAEA making a much bigger issue of this and why aren’t leaders of countries making statements about the consequences of a “provocation”? Baffled.

Anonymous

I keep hearing about Ukrainian equipment losses. When compared to gains this appears worrying. I would be interested to know their burn rate and how long until this will have an operational impact on the offensive.

AnaR737

I have no idea how much authority the IAEA has to force the issue, but it does look like they are being timid to say the least. Multilateral organizations are not well equipped to deal with bullies, especially if they command a veto.

Anonymous

Would the IAEA be this timid with Iran or North Korea in a similar situation? Admittedly an unfair comparison because the IAEA has no direct leverage with Russia other than to shame them - which they’re not doing sufficiently. They can state publicly and loudly through the UN that Russia is using nuclear blackmail and behaving recklessly. The allies need to keep reminding Russia that they will be held to account for any “provocation” and they won’t be able to blame Ukraine. To paraphrase David O: bullies need to know they’ll get a punch in the nose. Unfortunately the message we send to Russia after they commit atrocities is that we’ll stop talking about it as soon as it’s out of the headlines and there’ll be minimal consequences. Putin thinks the west is weak and liberal democracies are easily distracted. He wants chaos and we have to respond with unity and strength

AnaR737

I agree with you 100%. No matter how much we focus on the front, the Black Sea and the geopolitics of all this, Russia's snatching of ZNPP and the way they have operated it is the anchor point from which they can leverage all their bullying and then some. It's like holding at gunpoint a hostage who is wearing one of those explosive jackets. I think most people don't look because it makes them feel so powerless and they are hoping something else will shift and force Russia's hand. That's my best case scenario too. I am not counting on the IAEA to do more than what they have done so far although I am willing to consider they may be operating under a constriction that I don't know about. If we all survive this I am sure there will be treaties to address this. For now, we are in uncharted territory.

Anonymous

The West could do a lot more to stop Russia from using the plant as a hostage but they are to timid to take aggressive action

Anonymous

I agree. We don’t hear mention of demilitarized zones. Or humanitarian corridors for people escaping flood zones or from cities under evacuation. And why can’t the UN put observers onto the grain ships so that they can attest that they’re not being used to smuggle arms or for sneak attacks from the Black Sea… These are all considered to be escalations and we’re afraid of provoking Putin. But the message we’re sending is that it’s ok to commit war crimes on an almost unprecedented scale, just as long as you’ve got nuclear weapons.

AnaR737

That is exactly the message. The other is that countries who give up nuclear weapons like Ukraine open themselves to a horrific invasion.

Anonymous

Apart from Oryx database everything else is anecdotal. Pro Ukrainian vloggers are showing that the combination of anti-tank mines and Lancet drones appear to be taking a heavy toll on Ukrainian hardware. Whether this is more than expected for the scope of operations I can't say. The Ukrainians haven't yet committed a lot of their new vehicles.