Russia-Ukraine Flash Report for 19 JULY 2023 11:40 - Embargo (Patreon)

Last night, Kh-22 missiles, which travel just under hypersonic speed and use a ballistic approach to strike their target, devastated Odesa, as well as Onix antiship missiles, Kalibr cruise missiles, and Shahed-136 drones.

The grain terminal and port infrastructure suffered severe damage, the fuel terminal was hit, and over 60,000 tonnes of grain awaiting export was intentionally targeted in violation of the Geneva Convention.

The Russian Ministry of Defense released a statement, effectively declaring a blockade of Ukraine, threatening international shipping, and attempting to project its power into "a number of sea areas in the northwestern and southeastern parts of international waters," which impacts Romania, Bulgaria, and depending on how far these warnings extend, could impact Türkiye.

"In connection with the termination of the Black Sea initiative and the curtailment of the maritime humanitarian corridor from 00:00 Moscow time on July 20, 2023, all ships en route to Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea waters will be considered as potential carriers of military cargo," the ministry said.

They clarified that the countries of the flag of such ships will be considered involved in the Ukrainian conflict on the side of Kyiv.

"A number of sea areas in the northwestern and southeastern parts of the international waters of the Black Sea have been declared temporarily dangerous for navigation. Relevant information warnings about the withdrawal of safety guarantees for sailors have been issued in the prescribed manner."

Russian President Vladimir Putin cynically declared that Moscow is not averse to restarting the Black Sea Grain Initiative but only if their full requirements are met. The blockade, and the "hint" that vessels in international waters are also not safe, has sparked an international and shipping crisis.

Were the attacks in response to the attack on the Kerch Bridge?

Probably not, but we can't verify that without sitting with the Russian Federation General Staff. Coordinating airstrikes involving the Air Force (VKS) and Navy take time and require approval. These were likely planned in advance of ending the agreement.

What demands does Russia have?

Ukraine, under pressure from the West and the United Nations, agreed to permit ammonia through the Russian pipeline that crosses Ukraine, and Russia responded by blowing the pipeline up.

The United Nations, in agreement with partners, offered to attach one Russian bank to SWIFT, which Russia dismissed - both times. The demand to connect to SWIFT to be able to send and receive foreign payments is quite telling, considering Russia insists that sanctions aren't hurting their economy.

What options does Türkiye have?

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is definitely going through some things today. The areas that Russia has extended shipping and transit warnings to are in international waters, but globally are considered under the domain of Türkiye. That is to say, if a vessel issued a mayday, it is highly likely the Türkish navy would respond.

Türkiye could attempt to run the blockade and protect civilian vessels. The Russian Black Sea Fleet is small compared to the Türkish Navy and well equipped.  It is almost certain that Türkiye would not do this without a U.N charter. As a NATO nation, this opens up a number of issues. If a Turkish naval vessel is sunk, could they request Article V? How would NATO respond?

Türkiye could close the Black Sea to all traffic and has the legal right until Russia backs down. This would cause a defacto blockade of Russian commercial ports.

What options does the world have?

The Montreux Convention does have a clause on what can be done to support humanitarian missions in the event that two or more parties on the Black Sea are at war. Warships, not to exceed 8,000 tons in total composition, are allowed to transit the Bosphorus to support humanitarian missions. When the Convention was written, the authors did not envision the United Nations nor how much firepower 8,000 tons of modern warships could carry. In legal theory, an international group of nations could deploy up to 8,000 tons each in a coalition fleet. This, of course, opens up another diplomatic issue and inches the world closer to a global conflict.

Would Russia attack and sink civilian vessels?

They have already. The Yasa Jupiter, Millenial Spirit, Banglar Samriddhi, Helt, Aburg, Lord Nelson, and Apache were all fired upon, damaged, and some vessels sunk.

What about Russia's threat that any civilian vessel running the blockade is tantamount to a war declaration of the nation it is flagged under?

Good luck with that. After threatening South Africa with a declaration of war if they don't let Russian President Putin attend the BRICS Summit next month, the Kremlin caved and announced that Putin would not be going to the summit.

Could this escalate into a broader war?

If Russia carries out its threats, absolutely. The challenge is what happens if Russian sinks a cargo vessel bound for Romania under the guise it "appeared" to be traveling toward Ukraine. What is more likely to happen is Russia will simply blame Ukraine, saying they've mined the sea lanes.

What is my personal hot take?

Run the blockade. The suggestion that any weapons are arriving to Ukraine by sea is ludicrous, given Western logistics and the ability to watch global air and marine traffic in the public domain.

When faced with a bully, you punch them in the nose, and the world already ran the blockade once.

Second, Ukraine should hit the Russian military port infrastructure or the Crimean (Kerch) bridge again to show the weakness of the Black Sea Fleet.

Winners and Losers?

Everyone is a loser - the entire world. Look for higher food costs coming to a store near you. Final hot take, not lost on my that after the blockade is announced, Putin announced he won't attend the BRICS summit. Seeing how China was the biggest recipient of Ukrainian Grain as a nation, and South Africa is likely having to explain to other African nations what Plan B is, I have a feeling Putin doesn't want to be answering awkward questions - as well as not want to wear stainless steel bracelets.