Russian- Ukraine War Flash Report - July 06, 2023 15:10 PDT - Ukraine Reaches Kurdyumivka (Patreon)

Russian and Ukrainian sources are reporting that Ukrainian forces have entered Kurdyumivka, south of Bakhmut, in the Klishchiivka area of operation. NASA Fire Information for Resource Management Systems (FIRMS) appears to support the claims, with thermal anomalies east of the railroad tracks and the train station between Kurdyumivka and Ozarianivka. 

Ukrainian forces have been consolidating their positions and widening the bridgehead a the Siverskyi-Donets Donbas dam bridgehead, and at that particular location, there is a dry crossing where the canal goes underground. 

ASSESSMENT: Ukrainian military goals will be the railroad station and the railroad tracks to Zelenopillia. Once those are secured, Ukrainian forces can expand the bridgehead north, forcing Russian troops west of Andriivka to "withdraw to more strategically advantageous positions" east of the railroad tracks to defend Klishchiivka from the south and prevent encirclement. Ukrainian forces are already attacking the area of the bridge that crosses the canal to Ozarianivka, per multiple Russian sources, which will also complicate holding the settlement. The ground lines of communication to Ozarianivka were coming from Kurdyumivka via the railroad line following the trees and the T-513 Highway, which is just east of Ozarianivka. 

When PMC Wagner was preparing it seige of Bakhmut, the capture of Zelenopillia, Ozarianivka, Andriivka, and Klishchiivka were priorities. This enabled the advances from the south through Opytne to have strong GLOCs and protection from artillery. Ukrainian forces are unrolling the Russian offensive gains, using a more conservative approach of small units attacking Russian positions supported by artillery and armor. With Ukrainian tanks operating east of the canal and Russian units in this area of operation still lacking adequate antitank weapons, the Russian defense is getting very complicated. The loss of the high ground, as outlined yesterday, in two critical locations is also creating problems for Russian commanders.

Lightly armed penal and mobik units with poor training can't hold the defensive lines armed with bolt action and assault rifles, grenades, and RPGs. We have seen numerous videos (some too graphic to share) of much smaller Ukrainian forces overwhelming poorly trained Russian units in trench warfare engagements. There also continues to be a steady stream of POW videos, including 13 yesterday (we, as a policy, don't share POW videos with some exceptions). Two of the 13 captured Russians were wearing men's business suits and were part of a unit where five were killed. That's a platoon combat destroyed, that a small company close to combat ineffective. 

We know that the offensive appears to be bogged down and going slow. There is a lot more going on than what can be shared, and Ukrainian daily gains are being measured in hundreds of meters. The tight operational security adds to the frustration. 

There is a growing belief among our team, and some others, that as Russia commits more and more of their reserve forces in multiple areas of operation, the available troops to defend the so-called  Surovikin Line in southern Ukraine dwindles down. There were already numerous reports that despite the formidable configurations, there were numerous basic engineering mistakes and not enough troops to mount the lines.

The most likely area of a breakthrough for Ukraine is going to be south or north of Bakhmut in the short term. The critical thing to remember, this effort is being done by two brigades and with 75% of Ukrainian reserve forces still sitting on the sideline.

If, and it is an if, Ukraine can break through Russian defenses south of Orikhiv or in the direction of Berdyansk-Mariupol, the advance to the Surovikin Line will likely be rapid. The goal will be to move as fast as possible to break the main line before reserves can be pulled up and withdrawing forces can fall back.