Russian- Ukraine War Flash Report - June 25, 2023 15:30 PDT (Patreon)

On April 18, several Russian propagandists reported that Ukrainian forces had made a successful wet crossing over the Dnipro to the left (east) bank, attempted to occupy the area around the Antonovskyy Bridge, and were destroyed. On April 20, some propagandists walked back the claim, a video emerged of Ukrainian troops less than a kilometer from the urbanized parts of Oleshky; and we declared it true, as did the Institute for the Study of War. A few days later DeepState also accepted it.

While everyone was focused on Russia on June 23, the same propagandists from April 18 were claiming Ukraine made another successful wet crossing of the Dnipro and reoccupied the same areas. We are accepting these claims at face value and believe that Ukrainian forces have established a forward operating base (FOB) on the east bank of the Dnipro.

This follows additional reports that more Ukrainian DRG teams have been operating in Oleshky than reported, with the evacuation of civilians continuing. This is also likely true and has been kept quiet up to this point for operational security reasons and to protect the operation.

Russian forces lost 5 to 15 kilometers of defenses on the left (east) bank of the Dnipro after the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam, and the Russian 810th Naval Infantry was redeployed to Zaporizhia. There has been little evidence from photos and videos from the Reuters-Thompson news team in occupied Kherson showing a massive Russian military presence in Hola Prystan or Oleshkhy.

We maintain that it is highly unlikely Ukraine will attempt a brigade-sized wet crossing to expand the bridgehead. However, as the mud flats dry out, and due to the state of chaos the Russian military is in and redeployments to Zaporizhia, the possibility of an attempt has increased.