Russian Civil War/Coup/Insurrection Over Flash Report and Live - June 23, 2023 16:25 PDT (Patreon)

“They wanted to disband the Wagner Group. We left on June 23 for the “March of Justice,” During the day, we advanced less than 200 kilometers to Moscow. During this time, we have not shed a single drop of the blood of our fighters.

Now the moment has come when blood can be shed; therefore, understanding all the responsibility for Russian blood to be shed on one of the sides, we turn our columns and leave in the opposite direction to the field camps according to the plan."

- Yevgeny Prigozhin

There is an important phrase, "our fighters." Eight members of the Russian Airforce, four from Russian army aviation, and three ground troops of unknown organizations are dead. Also, Prigozhin claimed that his camps were hit by Russian missiles yesterday, so what is the truth, and what is the lie? Yes, this is Prigozhin.

Journalist Oz Katerji wrote, "If the plan was to leave the frontlines, partially invade Russia, temporarily occupy Rostov and shoot down several very expensive Russian military aircraft, then Prigozhin's plan has been a storming success. If it was to arrest Shoigu, it has not."

The Oryx database visually and geoconfirmed the loss of seven aircraft and two vehicles.

Russia lost an Il-18 or Il-22M Airborne Command Post (the exact type is still unclear with mixed reports, but the aircraft was definitely shot down) with eight crew onboard, all killed. A total of 12 members of the Russian VKS and army aviation were killed.

Russia mercenary milblogger Rybar, "The question hangs in the air: who and how will answer for the deaths of Russian servicemen during the "March of Justice"? Let it not be rhetorical."

A Mi-8 transport helicopter was shot down, but more damaging was the loss of three Mi-8MTPR-1 Electronic Warfare Helicopters. Two were destroyed, and one was damaged. This is the fourth loss of a fleet of no more than 18 in the last two months, all four taken out of service over Russia. These will be very difficult to replace.

A Mi-35M attack helicopter and a Ka-52 Alligator attack helicopter were also shot down.

Russia also lost an MRAP and an Infantry Mobility vehicle which were - captured - and the status is now unknown.

PMC Wagner lost a UAZ-based technical.

Russian propagandist and part of the 18 milbloggers in Putin's inner circle Alexander "Sasha" Kots wrote after the deal was announced, "All day I have been receiving letters from the good-hearted supporters of the rebellion, who insist that this was a forced peaceful protest that was hit by a bloody militia. Do you justify the murder of Russian pilots now?"

"Let's take a look at the "peaceful protest" called the "justice march". Six downed helicopters and one plane is not justice. Blocking Russian cities is not justice. Capturing military airfields is not justice."

"At peaceful protests, tanks and infantry fighting vehicles are not dragged on trawls to the capital, paralyzing traffic along several federal highways. And they do not put the state in front of an abyss, putting a pistol barrel to the back of the head."

"Thank God, common sense still prevailed, and the "march of justice" did not turn into a senseless and merciless massacre. Thank you for this to all parties. We have someone to shoot at, except for each other."

Russian propagandist Readovka reported in addition to the 12 aviators; three Russian ground troops were also killed. A video showed that two civilians were killed when it was attacked by Russian army aviation on the M-4 Highway.

What's the deal

Reportedly the deal was negotiated by the illegitimate president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko.

• The coup/insurrection/civil war is over
• Yevgeny Prigozhin is to live in apparent exile Belarus
• PMC Wagner fighters that took part in the rebellion will have immunity
• PMC Wagner fighters who did not take part in the rebellion have the "option" to sign over to the Russian Ministry of Defense
• Criminal charges against Yevgeny Prigozhin to be dropped

While reports have swirled that no one knows where Prigozhin is, a picture released by PMC Wagner aligned Telegram channel Reverse Side of the Medal showed Prigozhin's department from Rostov-on-Don at 13:20 hours Pacific Daylight Time. 

Rostov Region Governor Vasily Golubev reported that PMC Wagner units were heading back to their field camps.

What's not in the deal

While a lot of electronics are being spilled that 25,000 Wagnerites are heading to Belarus now, Prigozhin has reported the ones involved in the uprising are returning to their field camps in Luhansk, and the withdrawal route out of Rostov-on-Don appears to confirm that. About 20 to 30 minutes ago, PMC Wagner forces started to withdraw from Rostov-on-Don among cheering crowds chanting, "Wagner! Wagner! Wagner!"

Dmitry Peskov was asked in a press conference what security guarantees Prigozhin had for safe passage to Belarus, and the answer was the word of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The Russian SSU raided Prigozhin's headquarters in St Petersburg and released pictures of boxes and suitcases of cash in various currencies, weapons and ammunition, and drugs. The pictures were released after the deal was announced, indicating that someone in the SSU didn't get the memo.

When asked what the status was of employees in the Russian Ministry of Defense, Peskov said that there were no changes he was aware of and that any changes are up to President Putin. As of this writing, Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu and Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov have not emerged and have not been terminated.

While some aspects of the Fortress Protocol in Moscow have already been taken down, others have not, and Peskov gave no time table to when CVO protocols would be released. UPDATE: The Kremlin announced it would be released "as soon as possible."

Numerous residents of Rostov-on-Don appeared on camera and made statements to Russian state media supportive of PMC Wagner and their actions while providing material aid. What happens to them for violating the so-called, "don't say war" laws?

How far did it go

Officially, the bulk of the PMC Wagner convoy got to within 200 kilometers of Moscow before it was called off, reaching the northern administrative border of Lipetsk unopposed and with no apparent ability by the Russian Ministry of Defense to respond forcibly.

Retired General Mark Hertling had this to say, "It hit me we're thinking of Prigozhin in the wrong way. His actions have confused us these last 48 hours (and beyond) because we see him as the leader of a large mercenary body, fighting for pay (or freedom from jail) instead of what soldiers fight to defend (the state). After some research, I'm now concluding he fits the definition of a modern-day warlord with these attributes:  Here are the characteristics of a warlord: an individual with limited military skills, who is accountable to no one, who has no true ideology, who rules through patronage, who flourishes only when the central government is weak, and who further fragments the politics, the unified military action, and the economics of a central government.  There is no contribution to a nation's power, only the individual's. If this definition fits Prigozhin, it also suggests that Russia is, therefore, a failed - although semi-functioning - quasi-modern state.  We know Putin is a kleptocratic authoritarian, so this seems to fit."

Impact on Ukraine and the ongoing war

Russian logistics will open up but will experience short-term disruptions to the east. Disruptions from the Crimean peninsula will continue.

If you think our concern about logistics with border closures was misplaced, we weren't the only ones seeing it. 

The acting and illegitimate director of the Ministry of Economic Development of the so-called Donetsk People's Republic, Vladimir Zverkov, was asked if there would be an increase in food prices (already a sore topic in the occupied territories) or facing a shortage. "We have created significant stocks of goods, we will not have any shortage. Together with the Ministry of Industry and Trade, price increases will be controlled," adding, "I ask citizens NOT to buy food for the future; there will be enough goods and food for a long time!"

The crippling impact on Russian logistics may be one of the biggest reasons a deal was cut. Sometimes when there are numerous theories, the simplest one is the answer, and that is the most obvious theory. The Russian eastern border could not stay closed.

Could this all be an act to transfer 25,000 Wagnerites to Belarus to attack Ukraine

If it is, it's a lousy idea. Ukrainian reserves and border defenses are not as porous and thinly defended as the Russian frontier is. Twenty-five thousand heavily armed Wagnerites storming the Ukrainian border would be a big problem, but they're not going to capture any major cities with a force of that size - that's not big enough to capture Avdiivka right now. Prigozhin is no longer in the business of working for the Russian Ministry of Defense anyway; that's crystal clear.

What's missing or not being talked about

• Prigozhin's initial statement about the reasons for going to war in Ukraine was a lie, concocted by Minister of Defense Shoigu in alignment with Russian oligarchs and criminal elements in the occupied territories, the cover-up on losses, Russia's inability to win in Ukraine from the first day, the poor treatment of the Russian people and in particular Russian soldiers - these claims are still in the open
• How will the PMC Wagner fighters who did not participate respond to finding out they're being signed over by the Russian Ministry of Defense
• What will happen to Shoigu and Gerasimov if the deal was they lose their jobs, and if that doesn't happen what does Prigozhin do beyond rant from Minsk about Russian betrayal
• How does Putin's image of a strong leader internally to Russia not come out unscathed when the dark potato prince of Belarus cut the deal, and it was Prigozhin that decided as a "goodwill gesture" to stop, not due to threats of imprisonment or an armed Russian response but because he, Prigozhin, took the moral high ground of not having his guy's blood spilled - Russian blood was shed in the last 24 hours, and the Russian VKS and army aviation lost more visually confirmed aircraft over Russia than in Ukraine in two months
• Peskov said that Putin would not be making another statement 12 hours after telling the Russian people that Prigozhin is a traitor, that there is armed rebellion, treason, and a "stab in the back" on national television - how does that play to the perception that Putin is the all known, all loving, only I can defend you proto-Tzar - historically for Russians this is an act of weakness and while bread and circuses will be a salve, it won't make this situation go away

Colonel General Ramzan Kadyrov released a statement over three hours after the deal was announced with the Kremlin, which is puzzling.

"I thought some people could be trusted. That they sincerely love their Motherland as real patriots to the marrow of their bones. But it turned out that for the sake of personal ambitions and benefits and because of arrogance, people can not give a damn about affection and love for the Fatherland."

"I talked with Prigozhin, urging him to leave his business ambitions and not mix them with matters of national importance. I thought that he heard me, but it turns out that this anger in him has only grown all this time. A chain of unsuccessful deals in entrepreneurship caused a hidden and long-lasting resentment in the businessman, which reached a peak when the authorities of St. Petersburg did not provide his daughter with the desired land. The arrogance of one person could lead to such dangerous consequences and draw a large number of people into the conflict."

"I call on all PMC fighters to continue to be sober in their decisions. Think about the future of the country, about your families and children. Such actions can lead to disastrous results. Now everything ended peacefully, without bloodshed, but it could happen. The extreme measure would be the harsh suppression and destruction of anyone who encroaches on the integrity of the Russian Federation."

It appears that Kadyrov's social media manager didn't the memo on a planned released statement on the surface.

Who got too much attention

Former PMC Wagner and Donbas fighter Alex Parker. A lot of people latched on to his statements as representative of PMC Wagner as a whole. Parker may be on the payroll as a disinformation operative, but he is mostly an edge lord who lives in Spain. Parker, for months, has called Prigozhin "the most promising politician" and now is calling him a "bald stupid fool" and renamed his second channel from AP Wagner to Alex Parker Returns.

We're very confused about why so people latched on to his social media account as he is not an official voice of PMC Wagner but for himself.

Was it all an act, a tragic comedy of the 'Black Clown'

Marina Akhmedova, a member of the Russian government's Human Rights Council under President Putin, took an unusually strong tone, "For those who believe that today's events are staged and multi-move. That is, do you really think that the president of the country does not respect either you or himself and will play this comedy? Will appeal to the people, knowing that everything is a game? Answer this question for yourself."

Retired Colonel and former Russian State Duma deputy Viktor Alksnis, "I am forced to admit with bitterness that the Russian Federation has come one step closer to its final and irreversible death. From today, there are two presidents in the Russian Federation - the real president, Evgeny Viktorovich Prigozhin, and the vice-president for imprisonment, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin. The main purpose of the zits-president is to periodically address the real president, and in a kneeling position, with the question: 'What would you like, Yevgeny Viktorovich?' Never, even in the most nightmare dream, could I imagine that I would see this shame and the death of my country."

Russian propagandist Romanov Light had a shorter evaluation, "IMHO: I think - now everyone who supported the Wagners - f**** up."

Is it business as usual for Prigozhin

It appears that is not the case. During a press conference, Dmitry Peskov was asked, "What Yevgeny Prigozhin will do after his departure to Belarus," to which Peskov replied, "I can't answer this question."

There are no indications that Prigozhin will carry on with business as usual in the future, and it's already been announced that at least part of PMC Wagner will be ceded to the Russian Ministry of Defense. Initially, we wrote, "It is too early to call this an exile," but we see more and more sources calling it exactly that. While Prigozhin and PMC Wagner will almost certainly continue to focus on Africa, they still remain heavily dependent on the Russian Federation Armed Forces for heavy logistics, specialized parts for sustainment and maintenance, and heavy weapons.

Is it business as usual within the Russian Federation Armed Forces

For the most part, in the short term, yes. One thing is certain, Russian lost 25,000 potential soldiers today, with anyone willing to sign a Russian Ministry of Defense contract almost certainly destined to a light infantry storm unit for human wave attacks. There is no reason not to believe this based on everything we've seen from the Russian Ministry of Defense for the last 17 months.

Russia lost two of the three commanders who achieved kinetic battlefield victories in Ukraine. 

Russian collaborator and leader of the illegitimate "We are together with Russia" party, Vladimir Rogov, wrote, "Thanks to Alexander Grigorievich, Alexei Gennadievich, Sergei Vladimirovich, Vladimir Stepanovich! Many thanks to all the people who openly expressed their position and support for the Supreme Commander-in-Chief! Russia did not slide into the abyss of civil war, which our enemies were waiting for in this difficult time. However, I urge everyone to look at the situation comprehensively in order to avoid similar events in the future. Today, all of us - military personnel, volunteers, PMC fighters, volunteers, and caring people - are in a single formation, doing everything in our power for the sake of our common Victory. Trust is the most valuable thing we have, and we have no right to lose it. The life and fate of Russia are at stake."

It is already well documented that this melange of actors fighting for Russia has engaged in fratricide, robbery, kidnapping, torture, assassination, sexual assaults, and fighting over looted goods within Ukraine. There already is a low level of trust, and I personally don't see how this improves trust going forward. We don't see this newfound brotherhood and unity forming, and Rogov didn't mention Chechens.

Winners and losers

Yevgeny Prigozhin - mixed - appears to be a loser among his supporters but a winner among the Russian people, which in the long term may be more important. He got to live, likely in a Belarusian exile, which fit with the most likely scenario for us. The one thing we missed/got wrong is the Prigozhin did have a place to go, at least on paper, and that is Belarus.

Vladimir Putin - loser - his power and perception of being a powerful man is damaged. He didn't cut the deal; Lukashenko did. Fifteen Russian soldiers are dead; seven aircraft were downed. Some people aren't going to let that go.

Alexander Lukashenko - winner - there has been no announced deal that 25,000 Wagnerites are joining Prigozhin in what may be an exile in Belarus, and Prigozhin has repeatedly expressed a desire to focus more on Africa, which is more profitable for him. Lukashenko's position is already precarious as uncool Lando Calrissian, but for at least 15 minutes today, he is the cool version. We'll let him have it. 

Sergei Shoigu - as of this writing - winner - there is no evidence that Shoigu has been fired, arrested, left in exile, or is keeping his job. At the moment, keeping his job is a win. Right now, he still has his job - that could change.

Valery Gerasimov - as of this writing - winner - is Gerasimov even alive? When is the last time he was seen doing Gerasimov stuff? The most invisible member of Putin's circle, he's in the same boat as Shoigu.

Ramzan Kadyrov - winner - stayed loyal to Putin through all of this. It doesn't change that his forces are combat destroyed, ill-trained, ineffective, and don't have a legitimate win after 17 months.

Occupied territory leaders - winners - the grift and personal enrichment continue.

Russian Federation image - loser - this "internal affair" has laid bare the massive problems within the Russian Federation, and the response from the armed forces was impotent. It also has exposed areas that can be exploited for future psychological operations and not just by actors hostile to the Russian state.

Assessment

Completely uncharted territory, and with handing over at least a portion of PMC Wagner to the Russian Ministry of Defense, Prigozhin has lost his armed force to do a part two.

Prigozhin did not just wake up on June 23 and decided I'm going to start an insurrection and threaten to topple the Russian government. This took weeks, if not months, of planning and organization. The start was stunningly well executed. This wouldn't have happened without insiders within the Kremlin supporting this action. Prigozhin has betrayed every single person that aided him in the planning and execution. They don't have a deal.

We believe that in the coming days, weeks, and months, there are going to be a lot of sudden and fatal illnesses, a lot of heart attacks, a lot of depression, and a lot of car and package bombs. A lot of swimming and boating accidents. There are going to be arrests and purges. The problem is competent generals, and senior officers, are already in short supply.

While the advance on Moscow and the legitimate threat to the leadership of President Putin may be over in the short term, this is not over.