Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 19 JUN 2023 14:55 PDT - Russia Learns from Syrian Terrorists - VBIED Check (Patreon)

In the last 48 hours, Russian forces have launched four Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Devices (VBIED) at Ukrainian positions. Toward the end of the Russian winter offensive, there were two VBIED attacks in the Kreminna Operational Area. This appears to be an escalation of the tactic.

A vehicle is filled with explosives and driven to a target either remotely, by dumb means such as a brick on the gas pedal, guided by a driver who evacuates at the last minute, or a suicide attack. Of the four incidents, two appear to have used dumb means, and in the other two, the drivers jumped out.

Russian troops used a T-54/T-55 tank, what appeared to be a damaged Ukrainian tank, and two MT-LBs. It is unknown what explosives were packed into these vehicles, but in Kreminna, Russian troops used TM-62 antitank landmines. They're cheap, plentiful, and stable without their detonators.

VBIED is used when a combatant is fighting an asymmetrical war. They lack the heavy weapons, aircraft, or armor to effectively engage their enemy. For what was believed to be the second most powerful military on the planet before February 24, 2022, this is an unusual tactic that points to a certain degree of desperation. At least at the company level, Russian commanders believe they are fighting an asymmetrical war and employing tactics used against their forces in Syria and Chechnya. It also points to the frustration of a frozen front, with two VBIED attacks near Pobjeda/Novomykailivka. The Donetsk People's Republic Militia > 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People's Republic > Russian Federation 1st Army Corps has not been able to advance in this area for nine years and has repeatedly attacked Novomykhailivka since February 2022 with no success.

It is unclear how effective these attacks are, and historically Ukraine has not eagerly provided bomb/battle damage assessment (BDA) in the public information space. So far, these attacks appear to only be designed to cause casualties and have not been followed with ground attacks. Additionally, the attacks have been a single vehicle. More purposeful attacks would use two VBIEDs, one to cause a breach and disorientation and the second to hit the target.

We've covered how Russian artillery ammunition shortages are artificial and more related to their military doctrine. Unable to meet the needs of commanders who use Y shells X sq km = how many rounds to fire a day, the spike in VBIED attacks appears to be the temporary answer to a lack of fire support and the shrinking role of close air support (CAS) on the 21st Century battlefield.

The challenge for Ukrainian defenders is striking an armored vehicle carrying tons of landmines to prevent it from crashing into their defensive position still creates a massive explosion - as this video shows. Well-constructed reinforced trenches should be sufficient to protect from severe blast injuries if the VBIED is intercepted at an adequate range. Any Ukrainian ATGM crew that is exposed while firing on a VBIED vehicle is at extreme risk.

While these types of attacks appear to be expanding, if the success rate is low, the loss of vehicles and the mass consumption of mines will likely cause an end to the tactic. It is unfathomable to believe that Russian forces will start suicide attacks with VBIEDs, and if that were to happen, historically, it is a sign of a combatant that has exhausted its combat resources.

Militaries are always working on swords versus shields. Tactics to deal with VBIED attacks and how to build defenses that prevent them are well-established and not military secrets. One thing to expect to see is the open caches of TM-62 landmines that Russian forces leave exposed will become priority targets for drones.

Closing thought. If you had said in June 2022 that Russia would be employing VBIED attacks on well-entrenched, heavily armed Ukrainian positions because Russia lacks the artillery ammunition to support its doctrine, it would have been incredibly hard to believe.