Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 16 JUN 2023 14:30 PDT - There Is No More Doubt About Patriot (AD) (Patreon)

While the African peace delegation was in Kyiv and touring Bucha, someone at the Russian Ministry of Defense thought it would be the perfect time to launch twelve missiles at Kyiv - six Kalibr sea-launched cruise missiles and six Kh-47 Kinzhal hypersonic cruise missiles.

The Kalibr cruise missiles can be intercepted by various air defense systems deployed in Ukraine, but only the Patriot system can intercept the Kinzhal.

However, Moscow has insisted that three (out of two) Patriot systems have been destroyed. Not a single battery, the systems. We've already covered how the remains of PAC-3 interceptors were found on May 30, including at least one PAC-3 interceptor caught on video crashing into a Kyiv street. In Ukraine, only the Patriot system can fire the PAC3. 

All six Kh-47 Kinzhals were intercepted. There aren't many spare Patriot systems in the world for NATO to have secretly replaced them. The reports of extremely light damage to the EPP-III Electric Power Plant of the Patriot system on May 16 are highly likely to be true. It is also true that the damage did not impact operations during the air raid and was, according to our sources, superficial.

There is another aspect to the apparent 100% success rate that the Patriot missile system has had on all targets, including the Kinzhals.

1) A lot of digital ink has been spilled on the ineffectiveness of the Patriot systems with the Saudi Arabian Armed Forces. A superior or inferior weapon is only as good as the soldiers operating them. A well-trained, disciplined, and experienced tank crew with high esprit de corps in a T-72 will destroy an Abrams M1 (with the right munition) if its crew is poorly trained, lacks discipline, has no cohesion, and is inexperienced. Ukrainian Patriot crews are highly motivated, received training in the United States, and among them were soldiers already operating in air defense units. They're fighting for their lives, literally, giving them high esprit de corps. These factors matter and impact combat effectiveness. We have repeatedly seen how these factors have enabled Ukraine to punch above its weight. Another factor is trust in the weapon's effectiveness had to have been gained on May 16.

2) A lot of digital ink has been spilled on how the success of the Patriot system during the Gulf War was exaggerated, and the system was and still is hot garbage. The Patriot system's ability to intercept short-range ballistic missiles was only theoretical in 1991, using 1970s technology with the first deployment in 1981. The success was indeed exaggerated, but the performance was better than zero percent. GenX and older will remember that the First Gulf War was broadcasted live 24/7, and there were clear real-time videos of Scud missile interceptions that we watched in our living rooms. Not many, but not zero. It is important to note that when the Israelis got their hand on the Patriot system, the first thing they did was upgrade the software, which they deemed was hot garbage, and it provided an instant and marked improvement. The system has not stood still in development, both from a technological standpoint and an interceptor standpoint.  The MIM-104F PAC-3 interceptor went into service in 1997 and was specifically designed to intercept ballistic missiles. The PAC-3 has been upgraded two more times and can intercept targets to an altitude of 40 kilometers, 140,000 feet, steers itself to the target, and destroys the incoming missile kinetically - with enough accuracy to identify the warhead portion of an incoming missile and ram it. This is equal to shooting a bullet with another bullet. One bullet is traveling more than Mach 5, and the other is traveling at Mach 4.1. I was traumatized by Sister Mary Irene Francis in the 9th grade in Algebra I (true story, true name), so my brain cannot conceive the mathematics behind this. 

Editor's Note: Yes, I was a Jewish kid, raised Episcopalian, that attended a Catholic High School. 

3) This sends a signal to Russia and other possible future aggressors such as Iran, China, or North Korea. The United States has developed the capability to intercept SRBMS and missiles traveling over Mach 5 (more on this in 4). This provides some insight into the anti-ICBM system that the United States has as part of its nuclear deterrent. It was designed after Patriot, the software that went into that system likely went into upgrading the Patriot, and the United States likely has the capability to significantly blunt a very limited first strike. Before you go to bed, snug in your thoughts of an impenetrable shield against ICBMs and nuclear warheads, there aren't Patriot missile systems deployed across the United States nor the inventory to defend a majority of U.S. urban centers. The U.S. capabilities to intercept ICBMs using different technology but the same principles are also very limited. There is no such thing as a limited nuclear war.

4) The Kh-47 Kinzhal does not meet the definition of a hypersonic weapon. Achieving Mach 5.0 is hypersonic speed, but that only gets you a participation trophy. The German V2 rocket development started in 1936, leveraging the research and innovation of Doctor Robert Goddard, and traveled at (check's notes) Mach 4.7 - in 1942. Even if German scientists squeezed out 500 more kph, no one would be declaring the V2 rocket a "hypersonic weapon." To be a true hypersonic weapon, it needs to be able to maneuver in flight while traveling at over Mach 5.0. Not a little, a lot. That's why nations working on real hypersonic weapons are having massive technical problems. Aggressive maneuvers to avoid interceptors, like the PAC-3, generate tremendous stress on a missile that is already suffering from heat stress. At speeds over Mach 5, the air around the missile can heat to over 1,000 degrees Centigrade, which causes molecules and atoms in the air to disassociate - that is, break apart. This is quantum physics, way above my pay grade. This is why U.S. hypersonic tests have "failed" while Russia boasts that the Kinzhal is hypersonic. It isn't hypersonic because it is incapable of significant maneuvering in flight. It is just a very fast missile, with, according to the University of Google, it has a poorly designed nosecone due to quantum physics out of my pay grade.

The Kinzhal is not an unstoppable superweapon, but it is very fast.

The investment in the U.S. Patriot missile system to intercept SRBMs has been battle proven, and the track record is impressive.

Western nations and allies of Ukraine need to stop questioning the abilities of their citizens and soldiers to adapt and learn. 

Never underestimate the capabilities of a soldier defending their home and family.