Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 08 JUN 2023 09:10 PDT - Has the Main Counteroffensive Started (Patreon)

The team is split 50/50 right now. We can confirm that some of the newly formed brigades have entered combat for the first time and we have high enough confidence to confirm Leopard 2 (there is a debate on whether A4, A6, or both due to the poor resolution from Russian drone video) in the Orikhiv Operational Area.

Almost all sources for fighting in the Zaporzhia Oblast are coming from Russia and some of the things they are reporting make sense. This was my favorite of the morning, "The enemy was able to advance a little and gain a foothold at isolated points in the gray area. But these are only a few hundred meters. If any."

Only a few hundred meters - if any - but they made gains - but they didn't - maybe.

Yes, we've seen some of the MSM reports where a "senior soldier" or "two unnamed officials" have said that it has started. There are some clouds according to the current satellite image, but along the line of conflict +/- 20 to 40 kilometers, it is clear, except around Marinka. There aren't any major thermal anomalies on NASA FIRMS.

It comes down to half of the analyst team believing that, yes, the large counteroffensive has started on three fronts - Orikhiv Operational Area, Velyka Novosilka-Vuhledar Operational Areas, and the Bakhmut-Soledar Operational Areas. The other half feels these remain company-sized probing attacks, possibly up to a battalion at Orikhiv, with another increase in operational tempo. They also feel that Bakhmut-Soledar isn't a specific part of the counteroffensive plan as it is a target of opportunity.

The only areas we feel confident in saying Ukraine has made some advances in the last 24 hours are (map not updated yet),

• in the direction of Lobkove in the Orikhiv Operational Area 
• In the direction of Konovalova from Mali Shcherbaky - but only within the already mapped gray area, also in the Orikhiv Operational Area
• Along the western and eastern flanks of Neskuchne, to the highlands west of Storozheve and east of the hamlet of Blahodatne, in the Velkya Novosilka Operational Area
• Towards Yahidne, in the Bakhmut Operational Area and the situation for the remaining Russian troops in a part of Berkhivka is extremely difficult

A couple of other items.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited Kherson, including an evacuation center at the school in the city center. Moments after he left, Russian forces shelled the location where dozens of civilians were gathered in the open. There are reports of casualties.

The next item will discuss human rights abuses, including torture. If you find these topics sensitive, you can stop reading here.

Lt. Colonel Roman Venevitin, commanding officer of the Russian 72nd Brigade, 3rd Army Corps, who was allegedly "arrested," released a five-minute video after his release. He made the following claims,

• He claims that he was blocked by PMC Wagner forces during the movement of the unit, and because PMC Wagner works for the Russian Ministry of Defense, not the other way around, he did not have to follow their orders
• He says the employees of Wagner were "disarmed" but did not specify how they were disarmed
• He claims that he was then captured, tortured, beaten, deprived of food, and went through three mock executions and says that they recorded him being tortured
• He further claims that PMC Wagner forces have stolen military equipment from the Russian Ministry of Defense, including antitank weapons, tanks, armored personnel carriers, heavy trucks, and ammunition
• He claimed that PMC Wagner had, in the past, force conscripted Russian soldiers into their ranks, beaten, tortured, doused in gasoline and threatened to burn alive, and sex-assaulted members of the 3rd Army Corps
• He addressed the accusation of the route PMC Wagner was taking during withdrawal being intentionally mined - saying that PMC Wagner doesn't decide which routes are secure or not, and the 72nd Brigade answers to its commanders and the Russian Ministry of Defense

There is no graphic content, but he does describe the bullet points above. You can watch the translated video by 📺 clicking here.

ASSESSMENT: When the initial video of a beaten Lr. Colonel Venevitin was released, we had assessed that this was a bridge too far, and the Russian Ministry of Defense is going to be forced to do - something. Ignoring this incident will only erode what little unit cohesion remains among PMCs and the regular Russian units and will embolden other PMC members to engage in actions that violate military regulations, customs, and norms.

While there is a greater than 1% chance that Venevitin has been instructed to make this statement, many of his claims are already well documented. If you look at his video through the "he was told to say this lens," it still strongly indicates that the Russian Ministry of Defense is building a case against members of PMC Wagner or the organization itself. While there are many PMCs in Russia, technically, all of them are illegal.

Sidebar: All 50 states in the U.S.A. also ban the formation of civilian militias, yet there are over 100 that exist, some with up to 2,000 members. In many countries where these formations are illegal, enforcement is non-existent. This isn't just a Russian Federation problem.

We'll keep monitoring the situation, and that's what we know.