Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 05 JUN 2023 13:30 PDT - Has the Main Phase of the Ukrainian Offensive Started? (Patreon)

First, regarding some housekeeping, we are going back to bullet reports, likely combat only. In the coming days, I would expect multiple Situation Reports created as intelligence is confirmed.

Has the main part of the Ukrainian offensive started? The analyst team is divided, but right now, it is 75/25 - no.

Belgorod Operational Direction

We partially agree with the Free Russia Legion (FPL) announcement that they control Novaya Tavolzhanka. This is likely due to the Russian Federation Armed Forces' inability to form a cohesive military response than Russian partisan strength of force.  We had previously assessed these were border incursions, but the fighting in the Shebekino Operational Area is on its sixth day. In our assessment, taking up positions within Russia was due to unexpected success.

Bakhmut Operational Area

A month ago, we would have given PMC Wagner lead Yevgeny Prigozhin's report that Ukrainian forces have advanced to Berkivka a lot of weight, but the mercenary leader has an agenda in the information space to disparage the Russian Ministry of Defense. WarGonzo and others are reporting that Ukrainian forces have advanced to or are contesting the critical settlement just south of the M-03 Highway.

If it is true, Russian positions in Dubovo-Vasylivka will become untenable. If Russian troops are forced to "advance to more advantageous positions" as part of another goodwill gesture, the northern flank of Bakhmut becomes very exposed. 

We're still evaluating the situation but can report that Ukrainian forces have made advances in the area of Berkivka - we are unsure of how much of an advance.

Ukrainian forces are claiming there has been marginal success around Klischchiivka also.

Marinka Operational Area

Igor Strelkov Girkin has again expressed concern about the situation in Marinka and Russian-aligned forces' ability to maintain their existing defensive lines. Multiple Russian sources have reported that Chechen Akhmat has lost territory on the southern flank and that fighting continues in the "residential" or "center" areas. Both of those words are code for the former Druzhby Avenue area. Nothing has changed here since November, and after some marginal success on the first day in the axis, Chechen Akhmat and the 5th Brigade of the 1st Army Corps are fixed in place. the June 3 report by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine about a failed Russian advance out of Oleksandrivka, which was part of the so-called Donetsk People's Republic as part of the Minsk II agreements, caught our attention. It was likely a failed attack in the direction of Pobjeda, but it provides another data point that Ukraine is having success on the southern flank.

Velyka Novosilka Operational Area

A lot of unintentional and intentional Russian misinformation and disinformation in this area. A sense of panic has settled over the Russian information space, and the Russian Ministry of Defense's position of "everything is coming up roses" is not helping the situation. 

There are multiple claims that Ukrainian forces have advanced south of Neskuchne and have gained military control of Storzheve.

Sidebar - what is military control? This is a good time to recap the difference between military control and civilian control. Military control means that the enemy combatant is no longer occupying a settlement. There may still be SOF or DRG teams that conduct harassment attacks, sabotage, and take up sniper positions. Movement outdoors is restricted due to the threat of artillery, mortar, and drone attacks, as well as airstrikes. Civilian control is when you can sit outside and eat your lunch without the worry of snipers or other small arms attacks. There may still be the threat of artillery strikes from positions more than 10 kilometers away.

Multiple sources, including the Russian Ministry of Defense, are reporting a Ukrainian armored column of up to three companies in size has pushed through Novodonetske and advanced in the direction of Oktyabske, moving up to 6 kilometers.

Russian reports of Leopard 2 tanks being involved, based on a single video with the resolution of a potato, appear to show a French AMX-10 RC. It is very hard to tell due to the poor quality, but it is not a Leopard 2.

The Russian information space has no cohesive message, and we have to stress a common tactic we've seen is Russian claims of large Ukrainian advances, followed by a claim or a crushing defeat of those Ukrainian forces, when in reality, there was no fighting (or minor fighting) in that area. During the Kherson counteroffensive, we wrote about the "five phases of Rybar."

Additionally, the Kremlin has an official policy within the Russian Ministry of Defense that Russian forces are always advancing. This is why we get gems such as "advanced to more favorable positions." 

One of the easiest ways to spot disinformation - did it produce a strong emotional response? If it did - red flag.

Assessment

Operational tempo has increased significantly, and three of the newly formed Ukrainian brigades are involved in combat operations in two areas. This represents less than 10% of the newly minted units, and we have yet to see large artillery shaping operations or a significant amount of recently delivered NATO heavy equipment.

Shaping operations have entered the next phase, but the main thrust has not started. We maintain that a closed-door meeting of the Stakva with no readout and a large artillery barrage - somewhere - will signal the start of the main Ukrainian offensive.

We haven't added up the square kilometers secured by Ukrainian forces in the last 48 hours, but so far, the ongoing shaping operations appear to have been more successful than the January and February Russian winter offensive with only a fraction of the resources.