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This is Report 391, which is 46 pages, combat only, and in a condensed format.

Important: Until further notice, we are moving to a condensed format for Situation Reports due to increasing activity in support of the looming Ukrainian offensive. The news cycle is moving too fast to do one report every 24 hours. Up to three Situation Reports will up done a day, and there may be a significant increase in flash reports. We will also do live streams if the situation becomes dynamic. Once the operational tempo slows down, we will move back to full reports.

What's the big story? Russian officials have expanded evacuation orders on the Ukrainian border as partisan activity continues in Belgorod.

What's the second story? Russian force appear to be in an operational pause, with most offensive operations led by Ukraine and Russian partisans.

The Malcontent News Russia Ukraine War Podcast for yesterday is available on:

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Anonymous

Ukrainian little green men, I can't even slightly express how brilliant and exciting this move is.

Anonymous

The emperor is naked. And more than a child are starting to notice.

Anonymous

I know Malcontent spoke to this previously but do y’all still feel the odds of a CBRN-response to the partisan incursion are low since it would be a strike on actual Russian soil?

AnaR737

I understand it is very hard to protect a border as large as Russia's border with Ukraine, but it is still jarring that a band of partisans can zoom right in in an area where things fly over the border all the time. If you are in the area, and your village got bombed and you had to hide in a basement, I do not see how you come out of that with any trust in your government. The Ukrainians fortified the border with Belarus just because they thought MAYBE Belarus would invade, remember? Of course the resources could have been better employed elsewhere, now we know that, but how could they have looked at their own people in the eye if Belarus had swooped in and the defenses were not in place? I don't care if it is a stunt, a psyop, a feint or something else. Russia and Ukraine have been at war, or at SMO, for over a year. I think if you ask anyone with half a brain in any part of the world they will tell you that those partisans should never have been able to even approach the border crossing, and that the fact that they did speaks volumes about Russian misgovernment. In that sense, whatever the final goal, the partisans have given Russia a real black eye with just one tank and one armored vehicle. It is absolutely stunning and I do not see how it can be spun into anything that makes the Russian government look like it is doing its job. It should not even have been a possibility, period. No wonder they want to turn the page quickly and talk about Bakhmut.

Anonymous

Good points, Ana. As to how the Russian government is able to make such colossal errors and convince their own people that Russia is winning, I am reminded of the words of a guy I knew who was both the greatest salesman and most miserable excuse for a human being I have ever met in my life. I asked him how he was able to sway people so easily and he said, "It's easy to convince people of something they already want to believe". I think many of the russian people consider the Ukrainians to be "untermensch". As for that matter I think they consider much of the world to be inferior. I see it in their social media posts all the time, the way they talk about the Ukrainians like they are subhuman animals. So it is easy for the government to convince them the Ukrainians border incursion was nothing as Ukrainians are incapable of assaulting mighty Russia since that is already what they believe. Now Russia says if there are any further incursions there will be "severe consequences ". Like what? Kill thousands of innocent civilians? Steal Ukrainian children? Indiscriminately bomb apartment buildings and infrastructure so Ukrainians freeze to death in the winter? Round up civilians, murder them and dump them in mass graves? What EXACTLY are you going to do that you haven't already done?