Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 09 MAY 2023 12:00 PDT - Did the Russian 72nd Brigade Flee Bakhmut? (Patreon)

Yes.

We were very skeptical of Prigozhin's claim, but the Ukrainian Armed Forces confirmed the report with videos we geolocated. What we've learned shines new light on what the real situation is.

Ukrainian forces not only pushed Russian troops to the canal (which we had previously assessed), they made a successful contested wet crossing of the Siverskyi Donets-Donbass Canal and reestablished positions 2.5 kilometers from Klishchiivka on the east bank.

We have not been able to find evidence of larger Ukrainian gains near Yasyukivka and Sil on the northern flank, but there is a lot of chatter.

While these are small gains, it is clearer why Prigozhin is so concerned about the protection of the flanks. We had assessed weeks ago that Russian forces were not up to the task and weren't maintaining the same level of pressure that PMC Wagner did when they operated in these areas. We now have proof from Russian and Ukrainian sources.

This explains the repeated attacks the Ukrainian General Staff has been reporting in the direction of Predtechyne this week. These attacks are Russian forces trying to eliminate the Ukrainian bridgehead and retake the lost positions. Prigozhin is right, this was a critical area to hold on to because if Ukraine wants to do something more, the wet crossing is established, and Russia doesn't have the key component you need to smash a contested wet crossing.

Artillery shells.

We cannot assess what the end game will be, but Prigozhin wants out, and it's understandable now. Ultimately our assessment is unchanged from the previous weeks. Russia has a semi-false ammunition shortage. By modern warfare standards, they have plenty of ammunition, but their military tactics are still stuck in 1945.

We had assessed on May 6, when Prigozhin sent his ultimatum that he would leave by May 10 without more ammo, that it was impossible for the Russian Federation Armed Forces to meet the demand because logistics can't move that fast. Logistics wouldn't be able to move that fast for a competent military. The current situation is not a surprise.

In closing, if Prigozhin is expecting 6K shells a day, 10K, 32K, or his original ask of 80K - it will never happen.

One other point, we provided an assessment several weeks ago comparing the number of artillery shells fired on Pisky in August 2022 versus Bakhmut and what it would take to match that rate of fire.

Russia was firing 6,000 shells a day, just on Pisky, a village that is only 3 square kilometers in size. If you matched the rate of fire to Bakhmut, at 41.6 square kilometers?

83,200 shells a day.

Within spitting distance of Prigozhin's original ask.

The Russian Ministry of Defense won't let Wagner leave because if they do, they will have to backfill those ranks with the limited reserve force in place to hold back a looming Ukrainian offensive.