Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 10 MAR 2023 16:45 PST - We've Got Good News and Bad News (Patreon)

The situation in Bakhmut has started to deteriorate with Russia shifting strategy again.

The good news is the attempts to encircle Ukrainian forces appear to have been abandoned. Our readers/listeners have likely noticed that Ukrainian forces improved the situation in the southwest around Ivaniske as well as to the north of Khromove. Combat engineers replaced the bridge on the T-506 Highway, and videos have shown limited use of the T-504 Highway by the now-destroyed Mig-17 monument.

The bad news is that Russian forces have shifted back to trying to push Ukrainian forces out of the city. They've made progress in the north, and Fighting has reached the industrial district, with some milbloggers claiming Russia controls the chemical factory. We're dismissive of these claims based on previous repeated claims of the capture of the sparkling wine factory (eventually captured after five months of claims - five months!), the meat processing factory (captured last week after 2 months of claims), and the Mariupol Cemetery (not captured). But the situation is not good.

PMC Wagner's leader Prigozhin is transmitting a lot of hints that after Bakhmut, the mercenaries will play a lesser role in Ukraine and will be "changing their mission." Not sure what that means, but if I were in the Kremlin and the parts of the military/government that are seen as obstructionist, I would be nervous.

We maintain that Russia will capture Bakhmut simply by will and brute force. PMC Wagner will be combat destroyed after Bakhmut with no access to penal units and limited access to weapons. However, they have been the most competent fighting force in Ukraine, in part due to their brutality.

We believe we're entering a period where the bigger moves are going to be off the battlefield. This includes the ongoing crisis with PMC Wagner versus the Kremlin, efforts to destabilize Moldova, Georgia, and to a lesser extent, the nations of Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia, the Black Sea Grain Initiative set to expire, the United States debt ceiling showdown, the crumbling situation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.