Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 12 FEB 2023 17:55 PST - Bakhmut Closed to Press and Aid Workers (Patreon)

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine announced that Bakhmut would be closed to the press and civilian aid groups starting on February 13, 2023, for their safety.

There is rampant speculation that this indicates an imminent withdrawal, but there are no signs of a pullback. Russian forces control 25% to 30% of Bakhmut now. Ukraine has made some progress, or we overstated Russian gains, in the northern and northeast parts of the city. Ukrainian forces are losing ground in the eastern and southeastern parts of the city.

Some are reading this as a sign of a counteroffensive and a tightening of operational security. There aren't any indications that Ukraine is preparing a big operation either. It's elementary dear Watson, Ukraine will continue its defense to maximize Russian casualties. 

Ukrainian military leaders insist the M-03 Highway is not severed. In our assessment, this is likely a half-truth. There is an alternate route into Bakhmut using the M-03 Highway through Minkivka and then Orikhovo-Vasylivka and Dubovo-Vasylivka. Most of that route is forested and above a ridge which would require drone-directed artillery to provide fire control. With Russian forces, only 1 kilometer north of the M-03 Highway west of Paraskoviivka, driving that section of the M-03/E-40 would be extremely dangerous.

Ukraine also says the T-504 Highway is still open, which appears to be a half-truth. We know the bridge over the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas Canal is destroyed. Russia says Ukraine destroyed it defensively, and Ukraine says Russia destroyed it offensively. Like the M-03 Highway, there is an alternative route to bypass the bridge, but there is little more than a Jeep track on one section connecting Chasiv Yar to Ivanivske.