Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 27 JAN 2023 14:15 PST - Reality Sets In at Vuhledar (Patreon)

In his latest update, Lt. Colonel Alexander Khodakovsky of the 11th Motor Infantry Brigade of the Russian 1st Army Corps reported - reality - sort of.

Russian forces have not made any real progress at Vuhledar because they have inadequate force strength. Ukrainian commanders are also sharing the situation, and  providing a similar assessment.

On January 24, at the start of the offensive, Russian light infantry did reach the eastern and southern edge of Vuhledar. They were cut down by machine gun fire and artillery and there hasn't been any progress since.

Khodakovsky claimed that Russian forces became surrounded in the dachas, and called artillery strikes on themselves because they had become completely surrounded and cutoff due to the river. Whether this is fan fiction to justify the waste of human life or not, the words of General George Patton, who did really say a variation of, "the object is not to die battle for your country. The object is to make the bastard die for his country," rings true.

Ukrainian forces are claiming that they retook the areas lost, and Khodakovsky's claim of fire artillery on us at the dachas seems to confirm it. The other thing revealed is what we have assessed since the fall, Russian forces never gained full control of Pavlivka and remain south of the Kashlahach River. Personally I remained stunned at how fundamental war remains after 8,000 years of documenting how we're so good at killing at each other. Weather, terrain, and time of day still dictate the battlefield with impunity.

Keen eyed readers might have caught, "11th Motor Infantry Brigade of the Russian 1st Army Corps" and not "6th Motor Infantry Brigade of the Donetsk People's Republic 1st Army Corps."

In a recent decision that declared that Russian troops (little green men) and not Ukrainian separatists led hostilities in 2014 (Igor "Girkin" Strelkov was the first DNR Minister of Defense as an example), the War in Ukraine started in February 2014, and the DNR and Luhansk People's Republic (LNR) armies are defacto "Russian." We've been advised by the style guides we follow to start to refer to the LNR and DNR armies as Russian, and use their Russian designations. Which in the case of the former 6th Motor Infantry of the DNR 1st Army Corps, is now the 11th Motor Infantry of the Russian 1st Army Corps - not to be confused with the 1st Guards Tank Army. Welcome to our world.

Is Vuhledar important? Yes. More so for Ukraine than Russia. It is a critical transit and supply hub for multiple areas and its loss would significant complicate the defense of the axis. However, the 5 kilometer town has been reinforced for nine years, and Russian commanders concluded, at least for today - they need a bigger hammer.

Huge thanks to a listener/reader who let us know what the Swedish reporter was saying - which in part was he had never seen so much Ukrainian military hardware in his life. If you're wondering where all the Polish tanks Ukraine already has are -- there are hints that Ukraine is holding a very deep reserve.