Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 24 JAN 2023 17:15 PST - Leopards Run Free, and... (Patreon)

According to multiple reports in the German media, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has decided to send 14 Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine and will grant licensing permission to allow other countries to do the same.

Ukrainian officials reported up to a dozen countries were prepared to send approximately 100 Leopard 2 tanks that are currently combat-ready if Germany would authorize the transfer. The release of 114 tanks would equip eight companies, creating almost 3 tank battalions.

This is in addition to the 14 Challenger 2 tanks (one NATO standard company) already approved by the UK.

Additionally, there is a flood of very reliable media reports in the United States that President Joe Biden has decided to transfer 30 to 50 M1A1 Abrams main battle tanks to Ukraine, against the advice of Pentagon leaders. In our analysis, we believe the number will be 42 (or slightly above), which creates a full battalion with 3 NATO standard companies of 14 tanks each.

By NATO standards, a company has 14 tanks, 4 per platoon, 3 platoons, 1 command tank, and a spare/reserve.

Macron's earlier announcement that France was "considering" sending 14 Leclerc tanks will likely need to be delivered at the minimum to show support for the alliance.

As for what changed, over a 10-day period, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was politically cornered. After German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht resigned, Scholz's new Minister, Boris Pistorius, made it clear that the Ministry was supportive of sending tanks to Ukraine and that Lambrecht had blocked reviewing the available inventory a week before her departure. Then German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said that she would not stand in the way of a transfer and that the German government had not been formally asked, but it would likely be approved.

Scholz shot that down. saying nein, "no one has formally asked," and reiterating that it would need consideration. Polish leaders added pressure claiming that if it came down to it, they would consider providing the tanks without Germany's permission. That was likely a hollow threat due to the need for spare parts.

The United States government then offered to replace Leopard 2 tanks with M1A1 Abrams to any nation that was willing to transfer the MBTs to Ukraine. This was likely the final straw for Berlin. 

If Berlin continued blocking the transfers, Germany's Rheinmetall tank business was at risk. The transfer of the M1A1 Abrams would convert countries accepting the offer into General Dynamics customers, likely ending future orders for new armor. Ironically, it would also make Ukraine Germany's larger Leopard 2 tank customer in Europe.

It is also likely that the White House caved to Scholz's quid pro quo pressure to provide M1A1 Abrams, with Germany wanting to show a united front and not bare the brunt of Russian Federation ire.

What about the arguments against the M1A1 Abrams? Those have fallen apart, and Ukraine's view on the MBT has shifted in the last 11 months. 

The M1A1 Abrams are too heavy for Ukrainian infrastructure - weighing in at 64 tons. The British Challenger 2 is the same weight, taller, and longer. The M1A1 is wider.

The M1A1 turbine engine is too mechanically complicated for Ukraine - The Soviet-era/Russian Federation T-80x uses a turbine engine, and Ukrainian mechanics are servicing them without issues. Yes - the M1A1 turbine engine is more complicated with a shorter service interval.

The M1A1 requires jet fuel - this isn't true. The M1A1's engine is designed to run on gasoline, diesel, or jet fuel.

The M1A1 has major fuel consumption issues - it is true that when comparing the Leclerc, M1A1, Leopard 2, Challenger 2, and the TU-80x, the M1A1 Abrams has the largest fuel demand. However, the difference between the M1A1 and Leopard 2 under the following conditions - road, wet (all fluids), loaded with ammo, 4 crew members and their required supplies, has a 1/10 of a mile MPG hit. That translates into a 26.5 mile per tank (42.5 km) penalty. It isn't insignificant, but it isn't a 2X difference.

The biggest challenge Ukraine will face is supply and logistics to support the Pokemon collection of tanks they are operating, which includes:

• AMX-10 RC with an HS-115 or 6F11 diesel engine and a 105 mm F2 BK MECA L/47 main gun - NATO standard (committed - French origin) - light duty tank/armored scout vehicle/tank destroyer (take your pick)
• M55-S with an upgraded 12-cylinder diesel engine and 105 mm Royal Ordnance L7 main gun - NATO standard (28 in service - Slovakia origin) - medium-duty tank
• T-62 with a V-55 12-cylinder diesel and 115 mm U-5TS (2A20) main gun - Soviet/Russian (in service - captured) - medium-duty tank
• T-62M with a V-55U 12-cylinder diesel and 115 mm U-5TS (2A20) main gun - Soviet/Russian (in service - captured) - medium-duty tank
• T-64A with a 5TDF 5-cylinder diesel and 125 mm D-81T main gun - Soviet/Russian (in service - Ukrainian and captured) - medium-duty tank
• T-64BM/U/BM2 with a 57DFM 5-cylinder and 125 mm KBA3 main gun - Soviet/Russian (in service - Ukrainian) - medium-duty tank
• T-72x with a 92S2F 12-cylinder diesel and 125 mm 2A46M/2A46M-5 main gun - Soviet/Russian (in service - Ukrainian and captured, numerous variants) - main battle tank
• T-80x with an SG-1000 gas turbine (B variant) or GTD-1250 turbine (U variant) or one of three possible diesel engines and 125 mm 2A46M/2A46M-5 main gun - Soviet/Russian (in service - Ukrainian and captured, numerous variants) - main battle tank
• T-84 with a 6TD-2 6-cylinder diesel engine and 125 mm KBA3 main gun - Soviet/Russian (in service - Ukrainian) - main battle tank
• T-90 with a V-84MS 12-cylinder diesel engine and 125 mm 2A46M/2A46M-5 main gun - Soviet/Russian (in service - captured) - main battle tank
• T-90A and T-90S with a V-92S2 12-cylinder diesel engine and 125 mm 2A64M main gun - Soviet/Russian (in service - captured) - main battle tank
• T-90M with a V-92S2F 12-cylinder diesel engine and 125 mm 2A64M main gun - Soviet/Russian (unknown - captured) - main battle tank
• Challenger 2 with a Perkins CV12-6A 12-cylinder diesel engine and  120 mm L30-A1 rifled main gun - NATO (committed - British origin) - main battle tank
• M1A1 Abrams with a Honeywell AGT1500 multi-fuel turbine engine and 120 mm L/44 M256A1 main gun - NATO standard (pending - United States origin) - main battle tank
• Leclerc with a V8X SACM 8-cylinder diesel engine and 120 mm GIAT CN120-26/52 main gun - NATO standard (pending - French origin)

For those keeping count, that is five different types of ammunition and up to 20 different engines.

As for four Russian claims made in the last 24 hours.

No, there aren't any M1A1 Abrams tanks in Mykolaiv.

No, an M1A1 Abrams tank has not been destroyed in Ukraine. The video is likely almost 20 years old from the first Gulf War.

No, four M1A1 Abrams tanks have not already been destroyed in Ukraine.

No, an M1A1 Abrams tank is not stuck in the snow after failing to climb a hill in Ukraine. There is barely any snow in Ukraine, for starters, and the video was a cherrypicked clip from a before-after demonstration highlighting M1A1 Abrams snow performance with winter weather tracks installed. The video clip shown is the "before.