Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 11 NOV 2022 11:15 PST - Kherson is Ukraine (Patreon)

Ukrainian forces have entered the administrative center of Kherson as well as Beryslav. It is likely there are only pockets of Russian troops remaining in the region north of Nova Kakhovka and still working their way across the dam. There are reports of Russian troops still in Kherson but wearing civilian clothes and trying to blend in.

The Ukrainian "advance," if you want to call it that, has been slowed by the throngs of citizens greeting their liberators.

The reports of major causalities as the Antonovsky crossing appear to be over blown, we don't know the status of Nova Kakhovka. If Russian forces moved most of their troops intact this fast over the river, it was an even more impressive accomplishment than the Ukrainian withdrawal from Severodonetsk-Lysychansk.

The bodies of executed civilians are already being discovered, and there is the mass graves northwest of Kherson we have yet to learn about.

Our map still shows two areas under Russian control. Ukrainian troops have not advanced into this areas yet.

Unless there is a dramatic shift over the next week, we will update our axes in our report.

Dnipropetrovsk - moved to Central and Western Ukraine

Kherson and Zaporizhia collapsed into the same axis

Southwest Donetsk

Northeast Donetsk

Luhansk

Kharkiv will be collapsed into Chernihiv and Sumy

All other regions will stay the same

We had assessed all the way back in April that Ukraine would never make a direct assault on Kherson due to the challenges of the terrain and how difficult it is to defend. Russian forces completely destroyed the bridges and their temporary gravel crossing at Nova Kakhovka (they won't blow the dam, the Kremlin knows it would be a political disaster). 

Russia doesn't plan to come back. We speculate that Russian forces will start to shell Kherson and other points on the west bank of the Dnipro, and will likely be able to continue to do so with near impunity through the winter.