Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 22 OCT 2022 15:30 PDT - Kherson & Bakhmut Update (Patreon)

In the October 21 Situation Report, we hinted that things were happening in two locations on the northern front but weren't prepared to share details due to a lack of verifiable data. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine provided some additional information this morning, and we've expanded our area of uncertainty - only because of the language GSAFU used.

According to Kyiv, Russian forces have completely withdrawn from Chkalove and the critical defensive point in Charivne. We are not prepared to call these settlements, and the ones between, liberated. Russian forces have repeatedly withdrawn from towns in Kherson to wait for Ukrainian forces to advance and shell them when they arrive. The significant town is Charivne, and this confirms some additional Russian intel from yesterday.

Russian sources Ukraine had liberated Shchasiyve and Starytsya. Both settlements are north of Chakalove, and the liberation would mean that Russian forces in the key defensive point of Bruskynske were in a dangerous salient. That's why we concluded the news was too good to be true. If Russia lost Bruskynske, there would be nothing to stop an advance all the way to Charivne, the next major strong point.

When we look at the body of evidence, it appears Ukraine had a successful breakthrough south of Davydiv Brid, as we believed on October 21. It is likely that Ukrainian forces were not as successful in the Mylove direction.

Russian defensive positions from Sadokto Sukhanove are untenable.

GSAFU also reported that all medical personnel and Russian military officers were evacuated from Beryslav.

Ukrainian forces have also launched a counteroffensive in the Bakhmut area and have taken the initiative. BBC reporters were in Soledar yesterday, hinting that Russian forces have been pushed ever further back to the east than reported. The massive shelling of Bakhmutske yesterday confirmed that Russian troops are no longer in the town.

That's what we know.