Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 16 OCT 2022 10:45 PDT - Something is Brewing (Patreon)

Three situations we're monitoring. Ukraine has issued a media blackout in Kherson, which is another sign that the counteroffensive has or will restart shortly.

Russia is buying ballistic missile systems from Iran, which is a game changer. First, dismiss these systems at your own peril; they are likely more effective and accurate than the Russian Iskander-M system, which has had terrible performance. Second, this is the biggest sign yet that Russia is running out of precision weapons and is having to turn to other actors to meet their immediate needs. Third, this appears to have been a red line for Israel, which has tried not to anger the Kremlin for political and economic reasons. Fourth, this will almost certainly renew requests for longer-range weapons to support Ukraine.

The third thing is the military build-up by Russia in Belarus has become a bit more ominous. A lot more equipment and manpower is flowing in than previously announced, and a new vehicle marking, a triangle, has appeared on the vehicles coming in. Previously, these markings have been used to designate where to ship invasion equipment. There remain no plausible signs that Russia and Belarus are planning to invade Ukraine's northern border, but the posturing is more aggressive.

ASSESSMENT: We're increasingly convinced that a large military action is coming in Kherson. If this is a psyop, it's an amazingly good one. Ukrainian troop maneuvers, armor build-up, and significantly increased artillery. There has been a couple of weeks of increased SEAD/DEAD activity, and the mobiks that have been brought into the area are very ineffective.

After months of accusations that NATO will start World War III, the purchase of Iranian ballistic missiles with 800 kg warheads will not go over well in the Middle East or Turkey. This is going to include Saudi Arabia, which does not have the great relationship with Iran that many think they do. A wildcard in all of this is massive civil unrest in Iran and a country struggling to maintain control of the population. Israel publicly stating that this should be considered a red line and that military support should be given to Iran would be a shift in the region. 

Very difficult to read the situation in Belarus. A reasonable person would look at the situation and conclude, "there is no way they would make the poor decision to open a second front when Russia can barely hold the lines they've already established." President Putin is not a reasonable person and he is surrounded by unreasonable people in his orbit.

On February 22, many people still believed, including me, that Russian couldn't be stupid enough to invade Ukraine because they are only a regional power, and the true goals of restoring the former Russian Empire borders (beyond Soviet Russia) were naked and in the open.

Yet, here we are.