Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 01 SEP 2022 13:30 PDT - Good News of the Kherson Front (Patreon)

We can share some news and have updated the maps this afternoon.

Based on multiple reports from Russian sources, we've expanded the Inhulets River bridgehead.

Ukraine has liberated Kostromka (a speck on the map) and is contesting Bruskynske, which is a strategic location. The T-2207 Ground Line of Communication (GLOC - supply line) is now contested in three locations. This impacts the Russian defense of Vysokopillya, making their supply situation even more tenuous.

Pro-Russian accounts were claiming last night that Ukrainian forces had advanced to Davydiv Brid, but were pushed back. They also, bizarrely, claimed that Russian forces controlled Bilohirka. That would be impossible if Ukrainian troops were fighting in Davydiv Brid.

There is broad consensus that Davydiv Brid is contested today; we've adjusted the map.

There is a comparative map from August 29 to help show the scope of gains. Remember, a lot of this is empty, indefensible wheat fields. Think island hopping. Ukraine is on the beaches of Davydov Brid and Bruskynske simultaneously. Territorial gains look large.

A geolocated video is out showing Russian troops surrendering in Pravdyne, west of Kherson city. Another geolocated video shows Ukrainian troops being shelled in Myrne to the south. We've adjusted the map. At this time, we still consider both settlements contested. Most of the changes in this area are also empty wheat fields.

There are reports of urban fighting in Vysokopillya. We can't confirm, but we made a slight tweak to our map, moving the line of conflict closer.

Finally, the General Staff has published several combat videos of Bayraktar TB-2 drones destroying Russian equipment and personnel today. Why is this important? The TB-2 drones are slow, mid-altitude, and are easy targets for antiaircraft systems with competent operators. Ukraine's SEAD and DEAD during the six weeks leading up to the counteroffensive is paying dividends. TB-2s can't operate in areas where you don't hold air superiority.

Three reminders.

25,000 Russian troops are now consuming ammunition, fuel, and medical supplies at an unsustainable rate. With Ukraine holding fire control over the Dnipro River with HIMARS, it is impossible to resupply at a level that can sustain the operational tempo.

The confirmed use of Bayraktar TB-2 drones will aid in interdicting supplies and eliminating targets of opportunity.

The counteroffensive will take months, not days, and will start slowly and gain momentum. We wrote about that on July 28.