Russia-Ukraine War Flash Report - 19 August, 2022 10:15 PDT - Ukraine Back In Pisky (Patreon)

Written on the fly - forgive typos...

Yup. If you've been listening to the podcasts or reading the Situation Report you know we've suspected this for a couple of days.

The morning report from the General Staff reported that there was fighting in Pisky.

So what's going on?

We know that DNR forces left the Butivka Mine ventilation shaft complex a few days ago - willingly. We still can't figure out why after the massive losses to gain the key defensive position on why they just walk away, but they did.

We know that DNR forces have been moving across open ground from Lozove, with catastrophic losses for both Ukraine and Russian separatists. However when you're defending you have the "defender bonus," with a basic rule of thumb if you are assaulting a defending area, you need a 1:3 to 1:5 numerical advantage. So if you have 100 Ukrainians in an area, you need to dedicated 300 to 500 troops to overrun that area. When you're sending forces across open fields, the ratio is worse.

When you're sending forced conscripts with one to two weeks of training across an open field and the only motivation is the Russian or Chechen units behind them that will shoot anyone retreating, they're not going to be very motivated.

Yesterday, DNR forces attempted to advance from Pisky north into Pervomaiske. This was done while Ukraine still holds positions on the E-50 Ring Road west and east of Pisky, and has a contested ground line of communication to Neveske. Ukrainian reinforcements and equipment are moving from Neveske to Pisky - it isn't easy, it's dangerous, but it is still happening.

That means that the DNR doesn't even have full fire control over the area.

We've laid out the chessboard.

We know the advance into Pervomaiske failed, so what likely happened on 19 August is DNR forces fell back further, and Ukraine is back in the northwest part of Pisky. We have maintained that Ukraine holds a corner on southeast side around the Butivka Mine shaft because - the DNR walked away.

Russia doesn't have enough boots on the ground to hold additional territory and deal with insurgents in the areas they control. We are now at day six without any big Russian push anywhere in Ukraine.

I will cover this a lot more in the Sunday week in review podcast on why Russia can't win (they can't - depending on how you define win) and why Russian military doctrine that worked so well in Syria and Chechnya has failed in Ukraine.