Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 16 AUG 2022 15:00 PDT - OPSEC? What's OPSEC? (Patreon)

We sound like a broken record calling out Operational Security (OPSEC) failures by the Russian Ministry of Defense, Russian State Media, and their proxies, but the number of fails this week has been staggering.

HIMARS rockets struck the former offices of the Ukrainian intelligence service in Russian-occupied Lysychansk today. Russian state media was more than eager to provide a full battle damage assessment (BDA) showing the building was obliterated. Nothing left but a pile of rubble.

Serhiy Haidai, exiled Luhansk Oblast Administrative and Military Governor, reported that up to 100 members of the 2nd Army Corps of the Luhansk People's Republic were killed in the attack. Haidai is an almost impeccable source of information and tends to be pessimistic/conservative with his reports.

There are no confirmed reports about junior or senior officers killed, but knowing the exact building that was destroyed, its original purpose, and the BDA showing it was wiped from the map - we assess it is highly likely there were multiple officers killed. We thank Russian state media for the open source intelligence.

Russia is now saying that the explosion of a massive ammunition depot in Maiske/Azovske in Russian-occupied Crimea was the act of Ukrainian Special Operation Forces. Incredibly, if you didn't catch the link in the Situation Report, the ammunition depot and more than a brigade worth of multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) were placed adjacent to the train tracks in Azovske with no attempt to conceal the site. Boxes of ammunition were stacked head high practically to the edge of the tracks. Passengers in the train had casually videoed the amassed ammunition, providing specific geolocation information.

We have been messaged that the vehicles in the yard appear to be previously damaged or scraped. It is critical to point out that we have confirmed the authenticity of videos showing the transport of military equipment to Ukraine that is visibly in need of repair, missing critical parts, and rusty. Some of the equipment being fielded in Ukraine by the Russian Federation has literally come from scrap yards. Whether the MLRS vehicles were staged for repairs, deployments, or cannibalized for parts, they have almost certainly been reduced to scrap metal.

Finally, there is some weirdness in Pisky. Yesterday we moved the settlement to be controlled by Russia. Videos today show that Ukraine has moved back into the Butivka Mine Shaft complex, which is a key defensive position for Pisky, and will make using the area as a Ground Line of Communication (supply line) to move further west very difficult. The 1st Army Corps of the DNR suffered hundreds of casualties to capture that area to help secure Pisky, and by all appearances, they walked away from it and left it uncontested.