Russia-Ukraine War Map Updated - Mini-SITREP - Wife Update (Patreon)

First, thank you for your understanding and patience. This has been a rough messed-up couple of months healthwise for both of us. The good news is during her last visit to the hospital, they did full labs and know what her version of MRSA will respond to. We were able to move up from Smerch rockets fired by MLRS to M31 rockets fired by HIMARS. That's a tongue-in-cheek way of saying we didn't have to go nuclear with Vank and get admitted to the hospital. If this one doesn't work...

The war map was updated last night and this AM. There were reports from Ukrainian sources overnight (United States time) that the Russians had captured Marinka.

That is not true - it was a rough day (our night, their day) yesterday (well, our today), but the lines held. The General Staff Report came out about 30 minutes ago, and we've sorted through the confusion. We don't know where the source came from and how/why Ukrainian news sources ran with it.

The most intense fighting in Marinka remains on the very outskirts to take control of the slag heap, which Ukraine uses as a firebase. 

Russian forces were like pushed back around Pisky yesterday - but this is measured in meters. It is unlikely they control the air shaft at Butivka anymore based on the videos Russian state media released showing shelling 500 meters from that location. You may have heard if you follow Pro-Russian sources of a Ukrainian "stronghold" destroyed on the Ring Road. There is a video that was not a stronghold - it will be in today's report.

Ukraine continues to make progress south of Izyum, liberating two towns and contesting Dovhenke. Ukraine also is advancing on Vesele north of Kharkiv per Pro-Russian sources, which gain nothing in revealing Male Vesele is no longer contested. We don't think either of these is genuine counteroffensives but represent opportunities in weak spots.

However, The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that Ukrainian forces established a wet crossing at Nortsivka, which is northwest of Izyum. This is a stunning admission from the Russian MOD. We will be watching and monitoring for fighting near Ivanivka. We are waiting for a satellite pass and for the weather to cooperate. 

Russian forces are trying to advance on Husarivka from Bairak. They might be trying to close the door to access the Siverskyi Donets from Chepil. A lot of Special Operation Forces and small unit attacks passed back and forth across the river. It also could just be moving pieces on the chessboard to force Ukrainian troops to reposition south of Izyum to defend the western flank. Hard to discern as Russia doesn't have a lot of pieces left on the Izyum chessboard. 

Around Bakhmut, fighting continues, but nothing has changed.

For Russia - they're using the Luhansk playbook west of Donetsk, and without improved counterbattery, they will eventually push the Ukrainians out. There will be nothing left but dust and a destroyed coke factory, but they will push them out. Ukraine's tactics aren't supportive of attritional warfare.

For Ukraine, the areas where they are making gains or holding the line are in areas that favor their training, tactics, and equipment. The patches of forest northwest and west of Kharkiv and the forests of Izyum. Russia can't draw Ukrainian forces into attritional warfare there.

Russian operational tempo and artillery fire have increased this week but remain well below the June peak. Also, the fire is over a much wider area. It is easy to argue against the statement, "the front is frozen," when you consider fighting for Bakhmut, within the Sviltodarsk bulge, and for the areas west of Donetsk. That whole area might encompass 250 to 300 kilometers of fighting along a front 2,450 kilometers long.

The front is frozen.