Russia-Ukraine Flash Report for 6-20-22 13:45 PDT Severodonetsk and Popasna (Patreon)

Another big offensive by Russian forces in all directions - which is why it likely won't be successful.

Russian forces took Metolkine, so apologies to Kadyrov for being right for once. You are likely hearing other reports that Ukraine is only at "Azot" or "Nitrogen." That's basically unchanged for almost two weeks. Ukraine continues to control 30% of the city, Russia controls 30% to 40%, and the remaining 30% to 40% is a no man's land of endless artillery fire.

No changes at Toshkivika - Russia continues to control 60% to 70% of the eastern half. We are working on verifying reports by the LDR that they control the entire settlement, but we are being told by trusted sources that a total capture and closure of the P-66 GLOC to Zolote is untrue.

Serhiy Haidai reported that Russian military leaders have been given until June 26 to capture all of Luhansk. We can't verify the veracity of the order. Ukrainian forces would have to completely collapse for that to happen and give up Lysychansk.

On the subject of Lysychansk, President Zelenskyy made a second visit reportedly to the city. This would indicate the GLOCs through Siversk remain open. It definitely is a statement on the security situation and blows holes in some of the Russian claims of advancing on Lysyschansk from the refinery to the west.

The fundamental problem Russian forces face is they can grind settlements to dust and blast Ukrainian defensive positions with artillery to force a temporary withdrawal to second or third lines. However, they still lack the ground troops to hold these gains. Ukrainian forces are "hugging" the lines which neutralized Russian artillery, interdicting the GLOCs leading to these advances with their artillery, and retaking the positions. This is coming at a terrible cost for both forces.

While Russia has had to throw all available reserves into this final push, Ukraine has not activated its strategic reserve. It remains very nuanced. If you count success by the square meter, Russia is "winning," but the lack of light infantry is preventing Russian forces from holding those square meters gained.