Russia-Ukraine Flash Report for 6-20-22 10:45 PDT - Lithuania and Kaliningrad (Patreon)

Russia has a big Kaliningrad problem, and the rhetoric has increased dramatically.

First a brief history of how the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad came to be.

Kaliningrad was once upon a time Koenigsberg and was part of Germany. It was the capital of the German region of East Prussia.

In the closing days of the war in Europe during World War II, Allied leaders agreed that Stalin and the Soviet Union would gain Poland. Because Koenigsberg would be surrounded by Soviet territory, they shrugged and decided what could possibly go wrong and ceded the territory to Stalin.

You get the Cold War, Lech Walesa, Glasnost, the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the enclave of Kaliningrad. In the post-Soviet era from 1991 to 2013, all was well. Then you have Euromaidan, the occupation of Crimea, the proxy war in Ukraine, Russian sanctions, and here we are today. For Russia, Kaliningrad is important as an industrial area and port access to the Baltic.

On June 18, Lithuania closed its borders to Russian land traffic - both road and rail - for shipments of sanctioned goods to Kaliningrad. On paper, sanctions still permit the transport of food, medicine, and energy products under the banner of "humanitarian aid," but when the cargo is mixed with electronics and other items intended for illegal export out of Kaliningrad ports to skirt sanctions, you run into problems.

To be clear, Kaliningrad is not blockaded as port access is still possible. I would also caution our readers not to conclude that Kaliningrad has descended into panic based on a 10-second video clip in one store that showed a handful of people panic buying and wrestling over goods.

The challenge for Russia is they have no real recourse.

1) Stop natural gas shipments. Lithuania already ended all gas imports from Russia almost two months ago and was the first European nation and NATO ally to do it. If Russia turns off gas access passing through Lithuania, they turn off natural gas to Kaliningrad.

2) Stop coal shipments to Lithuania. Lithuania uses 0.0% of Russian coal, and train access to Kaliningrad is now blocked.

3) Economic sanctions - Russia has no option here either. Lithuania hardened its supply chain years ago not to be economically dependent on Russian imports/exports. Certain items such as foodstuff (Lithuanian ice cream is amazing, and Dadu does a lot of exports) would hurt but won't cripple the Lithuanian economy.

4) Diplomatic - Russia and Lithuania have almost no diplomatic connections left, with the tiny Baltic nation taking the most hardline stance of any country not called Ukraine against its Russian neighbor.

5) Give in to Lithuanian demands - which will make Russia look weak internally and on the world stage. That is the central issue. The Baltic nations and the former Warsaw Pact have watched Russia falter for almost five months in Ukraine, the first 60 days of that with Ukraine standing practically alone. They are no longer afraid of Russia's military power. Further, most of Russia's conventional warfare capability is mired in Ukraine. The remaining forces are necessary to protect borders and political-military interests in a country that covers 11 time zones.

6) Cyber warfare - an aggressive cyber attack against Lithuania that could cripple the electrical grid (one example) risks an Article V declaration. That is unlikely to happen even in a severe cyber attack. NATO continues to have little appetite for expansion of hostilities, and the response would likely be a strongly worded letter and general rhetoric.

7) Blockade - Russia could blockade Lithuania's ports, which would hurt the nation economically. However, this would impact Latvia and Estonia, increasing the risk of further intervention.

8) Kinetic warfare - which the Russian Ministry of Defense is hinting would be the next step - which they have done for months with other crises. That seems incredibly unlikely. If Russia were to take military action against Lithuania, it seems almost certain that Latvia, Estonia, and Poland would respond. With those four countries engaged, the United Kingdom and the United States would be under tremendous pressure to intervene. Finland would likely mobilize only to the point of preparing to protect its borders. It would be likely there would be an immediate blockade of Kaliningrad ports, as well as Baltic ports by the Russians. This could quickly drag Norway, Sweden, and Denmark into the fray. If Russia were to attack a NATO base and kill or wound multinational forces stationed in any of those countries...

Would Belarus get involved? Luchenshenka continues 

9) Lithuania blinks - it could be possible that Lithuania is flexing its economic power in the region and decides to lift restrictions on its own. There is a hybrid option also where Russia gets the message and quietly stops illegal shipments into Kaliningrad meant for export. This would be the logical conclusion to the crisis where both parties can save face and declare victory. 

The reality is that Russia is now in a terrible spot. Almost every non-military option will make Russia look weak against a tiny Baltic state. Hybrid or kinetic warfare risk starting a regional conflict that Russia has minimal resources to fight. Russia could cause tremendous damage to Lithuania in a short period, but the nation has demonstrated they did not view their Russian neighbors as benevolent and have prepared economically and militarily for initial self-defense.