Well, That was a Lesson in who Subscribes to Malcontent News (Patreon)

We thought we had big news. That we were assessing that Russia's ability to operate offensive operations at scale beyond artillery was ending (and we'd even argue ended). Given a lot of the doom posting in the mainstream media and by some other analysts, we thought this was a contrarian view. This is why we (well mostly me) did the hey, stay tuned, some big news is coming.

But we missed a big point - we've been telling our audience who get the situation reports that this was going to happen in June back in May. For our readers who clearly are paying attention, this wasn't news - this was obvious day.

First, I love my Malcontents!

Second, sorry - we really thought we were being contrarian but missed the bigger point - our readers already knew this.

Russia did another mass offensive today in the Severodonetsk salient. It was a repeat of the last week. Uncoordinated, non-strategic attacks that were borderline human waves. The only success was in Metolkine, where Russian forces got a toehold in the eastern suburb.

We're working on confirming some news out of Kherson, and we are not in a place to share some news yet on activity west and northwest of Izyum.

One other interesting development, the weather models were showing next week was going to be clear over most of Ukraine, but that has shifted significantly. It is now looking like Ukraine will have a lot of rain next week. This is going to complicate Russian plans for any wet crossing attempts. Additionally, the Russian air force has been reluctant to do ground support in poor weather because they lack precision munitions. Heavy rain will also impact drone operations and drone-directed artillery.