Russia-Ukraine Flash Report for 5-23-22 13:30 PDT - Lyman Offensive and Popasna Update 2 (Patreon)

The good news for our team is there was good weather and a lot of eyes on Lyman today both inside and outside of the city, so we have a lot of social intelligence. Also, David Batashvili has updated his map. His point of view is very conservative (leans Russia), which is why we work with the Rondelli Foundation. Accuracy over being first.

Lyman remains under Ukrainian control. It appears that the action today was intense artillery fire including MLRS, airstrikes, and the use of TOS-1 thermobaric weapons. The only advances appear to have been from the north and through social intelligence, appears it was unsuccessful. Lyman however, is on fire, in ruins, and the MLRS has continued after darkness fell. There was no mass surrender of Ukrainian forces or evacuation from the city - that is disinformation.

The Popasna offensive has stalled, paused, or stopped. We're not sure which. Ukrainian forces are already pushing back, liberating Toshkivka in a counteroffensive. This takes pressure off of Zolote and squash the encirclement rumors. This reinforces our assessment that Russian forces can take, but can't hold.

OPINION: If this is the extent of the offensive and the pause continues for another 48 or more hours, what was the point? 

West of Popasna, travel on the T1302 highway is not fun. The road is down to one lane in some places due to debris (road bed is undamaged). There are numerous positions with Czech hedgehogs prepositioned. The fire on the roadway is a combination of mortars and artillery. 

OPINION: We appreciate some real intel in the area finally, wish the OPSEC was better.

There were reports this morning that Myronivskyi, south of Popasna was either contested or under Russian control, and there was a video. Batashvili didn't move the settlement to contest or under Russian control, so this was likely a recon unit.

ASSESSMENT: We are very perplexed why the assault on Lyman and out of Popasna didn't happen in parallel. We asked some experts on if there was a benefit to this from a Russian standpoint and we were universally told, "no." The prevailing theory is that Russian forces don't have the logistics and/or airpower to support the offensives concurrently. We need more time to see what happens to reach a conclusion. The reduced operational tempo has likely lowered Ukrainian casualties, which were happening at an unsustainable rate. 

OPINION: If the Russian strategy is attack a point on the line of conflict for three days, then a different point for three days, then another, along the Severodonetsk salient and the Severodonetsk westward offensive, we don't see how this is going to be a successful strategy that leads to encirclement. Even with current attrition rates, we don't see how this benefits Russia's position in the region.