Russia-Ukraine Flash Report for 5-17-22 11:00 PDT - Azovstal Update (Patreon)

Let's cut to the chase - no one knows what is going on beyond the 211 who went to the Olenivka and the 53 wounded in the hospital at Novoazovsk. Candidly, most of my peers are being utterly irresponsible with headlines on the subject of Mariupol.

The video of the buses turning onto a side road with a Russian helicopter escorting it? Pro-Russian social media accounts are saying those are new surrenders. No - those are the same buses that left Mariupol and they are arriving at the prison camp at Olenivka. 

The video that shows new surrenders? That's a maybe, but Russian state media has claimed there are 2,200 people left at Avostal (Ukraine put the number at 600). Like other mass surrender claims, that video shows 30 or 40 soldiers at most and does not indicate a large group of hundreds who surrendered.

Still pictures of people being directed onto buses? Those are old file photos of civilian evacuees - none of them are dressed in any kind of military clothing and we have not seen a single Marine or defender dressed in non-military clothing during the entire siege of Azovstal.

Have all the defenders surrendered and is all fighting over? Maybe. No one knows, and it seems highly unlikely that the remaining troops would surrender to Russian forces, to be given over to the DNR, with no security guarantees.

Everyone wants to first for this story, wait for the facts. I would not rely on Russian state media at this point because they want and desperately need a propaganda victory. Look to President Zelenskyy or his closest circle, the Red Cross, or the United Nations, and don't try to read between the lines of vague statements, because right now, that's all we've got.