Russia-Ukraine Flash Report for 5-12-22 10:15 PDT - Russian Advance on Severodonetsk (Patreon)

Overnight, Russian forces took control of Rubizhne (Luhansk Oblast) and Vojevodivka. Russian and Ukrainian forces have been trading control of Vojevodivka for almost a week, which has made maintaining the Ground Line of Communication (GLOC - aka supply line) into Rubizhne very challenging.

ASSESSMENT: With control of Vojevodivka constantly contested, a decision was made to retreat from Rubizhne to prevent the capture of troops. With the withdrawal out of Rubizhne complete, continued fighting for control of Vojevodivka wasn't worth the equipment or human capital. 

Additionally, much like Popasnya, Rubizhne has been reduced to rubble, leaving very little left to defend, beyond the physical real estate itself.

Severodonetsk is under intense pressure.

As noted yesterday, one battle does not represent the outcome of a war (mostly) and the amount of resources dedicated to capturing Rubizhne, in particular, was massive. Russian forces continue to suffer unsustainable losses when compared to territorial gains. Russian commanders pulled resources from the Izyum front to reinforce their advances in the Donbas.

The main GLOC into Severodonetsk, south of the Siverskyi Donets remains stable and subject to artillery interdiction. 

The settlement of Oleksandropillia was also captured by Russian forces, just north of Popasna (Popasnya). This is less strategic than Rubizhne and Vojevodivka.

ASSESSMENT: Very specific details of how the Ukrainian 17th defeated Russian forces at Bilohorivka have been released. Ukrainian forces used airstrikes to prevent the retreat of Russian forces at the end of the battle. We had previously assessed that this region was one of two places where Russia held strong air dominance. 

Something interesting the Russian Ministry of Defense said yesterday, which is a further indication they are abandoning their larger strategy of encirclement of the entire eastern Donbas by seizing Kramatorsk and Slovyansk. The MoD indicated that Ukraine had turned the two cities into one giant fortress - publicly. That assessment is correct - but that was well known in March when both belligerents decided on the strategic importance of these two cities to control eastern Ukraine, and the war was still raging around Kyiv.

ASSESSMENT: This shift to attempt a smaller encirclement through attrition is coming into focus. We maintain that Russian forces can make territorial gains, but have no long-term plan nor resources to maintain an occupation.