Russia-Ukraine Flash Report for 5-11-22 10:45 PDT - A Bridge Too Far (Patreon)

On May 10, we wrote in the situation report summary section:

Russian forces suffered a catastrophic loss in Bilohorivka, likely leaving a Batallion Tactical Group destroyed. Ukrainian troops were able to regain control of a small area between the settlement and the Siverskyi Donets River.

This morning I woke up to messages and more pictures. You can't possibly be implying that Russian troops attempted to cross the Siverskyi Donets into Bilohorivka at the same location?

That's exactly what happened and the results were even more catastrophic. Another 30 plus Russian vehicles were lost and possibly more underwater, or north of the riverbank out of frame. As you can see, some of these tanks are so badly destroyed that meaningful identification is going to be extremely challenging for the people who manage the Oryx database.

Between these two failed offensives, we have visually confirmed the loss of 70 Russian vehicles in 48 hours - mostly armor (main battle tanks and armored personnel carriers).

I've written and explained on our TikTok channel how the military evaluates a unit's combat effectiveness.

100% to 71% - combat effective

70% to 51% - combat ineffective

50% or lower - destroyed

You don't need to be a military expert to conclude that we've documented two destroyed Russian BTGs in 48 hours at Bilohorivka. However, this isn't 50% "destroyed," this is 85% to 95%. These two units have been obliterated with no possible way to reconstitute them in days or even weeks - this is half a brigade. This is 8% of Russian combat power available for the entire Donbas.

Armor can be replaced, experienced tank crews on the other hand cannot. Fresh recruits need direct combat experience to become experienced. This is more than equipment.

We haven't seen this kind of loss for Russia or Ukraine since the opening days of the war. We had read chatter yesterday that Russian commanders were potentially rethinking their strategy, and considering repositioning to try and capture Lyman again. This might be why.

As for why would they try a second attempt in the exact same place, our assessment/opinion is this is likely an optimal river crossing location without many other strategic options. Whether that is due to terrain, river conditions, perceived Ukrainian defenses, or the approach it provides toward Bilohorivka, we don't know.

One battle (or two) does not dictate the outcome of a war. The city of Severodonetsk remains under significant pressure. We maintain that Russian forces have the resources and manpower to overwhelm Ukrainian forces. However, you don't need to be a former combat veteran to understand this - suffering the total destruction of a BTG every 24 hours is completely unsustainable. If this continues Russia will quickly deplete the resources needed to achieve a tactical victory around Severodonetsk.

Eleven weeks after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it appears that military leaders learned nothing in Kyiv and their continuously failed attempts to cross the Irpin River.