Russia-Ukraine Flash Report for 5-10-22 15:15 PDT - Russian Forces Collapse (Patreon)

Northern Kharkiv Counteroffensive

Collapse. That's a strong word, but it is the proper word to describe what has happened north and northeast of Kharkiv in the last 24 hours.

Ukraine has liberated Pytomnyk, Lyptsi, Slobozhanske, Borshchova, Petrivka, and Ternova on the Russian border. There are three Ternovas in Kharkiv Oblast (depending on how you translate Ukrainian to English) resulting in significant confusion on which one was liberated.

In addition, the following settlements are contested: Starytsya, Male Vesele (some reports have it as liberated), Vesele, Hlyboke, and Nove. Russian positions in all of these settlements are untenable with weak Ground Lines of Communication (GLOC).

Only the Pyatykhatky District in Kharkiv and the suburb of Cherkaska Lozova remain in the range of 152mm Russian tube artillery. 

The Russian-occupied strategic city of Vovchansk and the critical T2104 Highway south to Russian-occupied Bilyi Kolodyaz is well within the range of non-NATO 152mm artillery.

It is reported that Russian troops had abandoned their positions in some settlements, but we cannot confirm. The Ukrainian General Staff is reporting that Russian troops have been ordered out of Kharkiv west of the Siverskyi Donets River, but again, we cannot confirm. There are reports that Ukrainian forces fought with Russian troops including up to 500 reinforcements in Ternova, but we cannot confirm.

Severodonetsk Salient

The Russian attempt to capture Bilohorivka has resulted in a catastrophe. Thirty to 44 Russian vehicles were lost. A majority were main battle tanks and armored personnel carriers (BTRs, etc.). Ukrainian forces let the bulk of a full battalion tactical group armored strength cross one of two pontoon bridges before destroying one, with at least three vehicles on the bridge itself. sinking into the river. Shortly after, they destroyed the second pontoon bridge. It was a trap and the Russian troops took the bait.

The BTG was not only reduced to "destroyed" in the military definition of the word (50% or greater reduction of combat power) but Russian troops abandoned most of the equipment. They attempted to retreat on foot to the river, with no way to bring their vehicles back across. The GLOC to Severodonetsk remains open and uncontested.

FLASH ASSESSMENT: Russian military leadership has not operated logically so writing a logic-based assessment is a fool's errand. A sound military decision after the defeat at Bilohorivka would be reevaluating the challenges of crossing the Siverskyi Donets River and picking a Plan D (Plan A was to take Severodonetsk, Plan B was to take Lyman, Plan C was to take Bilohorivka). Local militia leaders believed that the river crossing at Bilohorivka was a crushing blow to the defense of Rubihzne and Severodonetsk just 24 hours ago. 

Russian forces are already suffering from low morale. Losing a full-strength BTG of Russian regular troops this way is a small incident along the hundreds of kilometers of battlefront, but a demoralizing blow for the hearts and minds of Russian forces in the Donbas.

The loss of equipment cannot be underestimated. As of this writing, Russia has lost 3,579 pieces of military hardware using visual confirmation. Just in Bilohorivka, that number has increased 1.0% to 1.2% in 24 hours. This doesn't factor the significant equipment losses north and northeast of Kharkiv, with many vehicles abandoned.