Russia-Ukraine Flash Report for 5-5-22 11:45 PDT - The Ukrainian Counter Offensive is Here (Patreon)

Earlier today, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valery Zaluzhny, announced on Telegram that the Defense Forces of Ukraine are transitioning to counter-offensive operations in the Kharkiv and Izyum areas.

This is the NASA FIRMS data for the last 24 hours. This is a timed map, so the red squares are fires that were detected by satellites in the 6 to 12 hours. Almost all of this activity is in Russian-controlled areas.

Fighting is along the over-extended western flank of the Russian Izyum offensive.

On May 3 and 4, we wrote in the Situation Report we observed evidence that M777 155mm Howitzers with Excalibur shells provided by the United States and NATO, were probably in use along the Izyum front. We looked at the available evidence on May 4 and speculated that a firebase might be at Husarivka. We reached that conclusion independently based on what targets have been hit and the precision of these attacks.

The fires to the west of Izyum are well within the range of the M777 and similar artillery systems, and from Husarivka, would be out of range for most Russian artillery pieces deployed along the front. We wrote on May 4 how only three Russian BTGs were defending this area.

There are also indications of fighting in Ukrainian-controlled Virnopillya. Virnopillya is the western side of the near encirclement of Russian troops that occupy Nova Dmytrivka. The 3-kilometer gap that has allowed access to Nova Dmytrivka is protected by Brazhkivka, which has been repeatedly attacked by Ukrainian forces. Russian troops have suffered heavy losses in Brazhkivka for over a week. 

Thirty-five days after Russian forces retreated en masse from around Kyiv, they appear to have repeated the same mistakes in Izyum.