Russia-Ukraine Flash Report for 5-4-22 9:00 PDT - The Curious Case of Tomyna Balka (Patreon)

Late last night Seattle time, the Ukrainian General Staff released their morning daily report. Embedded in there were just a few words about the village of Tomyna Balka in the Kherson Oblast.

"In the direction of the South Buh, in order to destroy the fortification equipment of our positions, Russian enemy used artillery, rocket-propelled grenade launchers, and armament of tanks along the entire line of contact. It intensified hostilities in the area of

the settlement of Tomyna Balka."

The last sentence had us pulling our maps out. Tomyna Balka hasn't been mentioned since early March, where exactly is it?

It's 15 kilometers east of Oleksandrivka, Kherson Oblast, 10 kilometers south of Myrolynubivka, and 20 kilometers west of Kherson city. This is deep in what was believed fully Russian-controlled territory on the T1501 highway that connects Kherson to Okelsandrivka and Stanislav.

We did some digging and there isn't a lot of information about the village. However, there are mentions of fighting in the area starting around April 25 to 27.

Twitter Mentions  [Not all of these are reliable sources]

Between April 8 and April 10 the area was considered contested.

Then there is this bit of weirdness. We do not consider the Twitter account of @CanadianUkrain1 to be a reliable source, and we are well aware of the very serious and valid questions about his authenticity. We also are aware of his defenders, and people who believe the account is managed by more than one person. We're not interested in the is he or isn't he debate.

However, he did post this 24 hours before the General Staff report.

Btw, a little positive update:  Our forces are now 20km from the city of #Kherson.  Soon.  Glory to #Ukraine

 Херсонцы, скоро.

There is a reply directly asking if he(they) were referencing Tomyna Balka, and he(they) replied no further information could be shared due to OPSEC.

Most of the area in a box from Tavrijske to Myrolybivka, to Tomyna Balka to Oleksandrivka, is steppe and farming areas. There are very few people, military or civilian, limiting open-source intelligence. Neither belligerent is going to want to spend a lot of time in this area on maneuvers because there is virtually no cover.

Looking at the satellite images, it reminds me of regions in eastern Washington in the United States. A handful of houses that appear abandoned, a few barns, and a couple of forgotten cemeteries. 

Google Maps - you can zoom out from here to see the box 

We know Ukrainian forces control the settlements along the northern edge of this box. We know that Ukrainian forces control the western edge, with the town of Oleksandrivka in a constant state of disputed control. Both belligerents appear to be taking turns arriving in the settlement and then leaving, many times uncontested.

We have believed that Stanislav, Shyroka Balka, Sofivka, and Tomnya Balka were undisputedly controlled by Russian forces.

Based on everything we can glean, we will move Stanislav, Shyroka Balka, Sofivka, and Tomnya Balka as contested, as well as everything in that box. Visually it's impressive, but it doesn't represent a game-changer for control of the Kherson Oblast.