Russia-Ukraine Flash Report for 4-24-22 13:45 PDT - Easter Offensive? (Patreon)

The short answer - is nope. If this was the Easter offensive today, the Russian military and their supporting units from Chechnya, Wagner Group PMC, and DNR and LNR separatists are in a worse state than we thought.

The only gain of note is that Russian forces have secured Torske, and Zarichne is contested. Southeast of Severodonetsk and east of Popasnya, Russian troops occupied several settlements that were in an uncontrolled pocket. These villages don't have strategic value.

The fight for control of Mariupol and the Azovstal Metallurgical Plant continues with artillery, airstrikes, and street battles.

Russia's widescale invasion of Ukraine started 60 days ago - the two-month mark. You could argue that they have gained control of Mariupol, Melitopol, and Kherson and call those successes.

Before the war, Mariupol had 450,000 residents. Today it has an estimated 100,000. Of those, 5% are known hostile belligerents, and half of those are battle-experienced soldiers.

Severodonetsk was a city of 130,000 - it is estimated there are less than 20,000 residents. Lysychansk had 95,000 people. The estimate today is 6,000. Rubizhne was 55,000 - the estimate today is 2,000.

ASSESSMENT: Capturing large swaths of hard-to-defend farmland dotted with tiny villages and the shattered remains of empty cities is not victory. The last 60 days have been a military disaster for Russia.