Russia-Ukraine Flash Report for 4-22-22 12:45 PDT - All I Want is Piece, Piece, Piece (Patreon)

Speaking at a military event in Russia, Deputy Commander of Russia's Central Military District, Major General Rustam Minnekayev, outlined Russia's Phase 2 military objectives in Ukraine.

• Secure all of eastern and southern Ukraine, including Odesa, and land locking the nation
• Target and destroy the economy of Ukraine 
• Connect to Transnistria in Moldova

"Control over the south of Ukraine is another way out to Transnistria, where there are also facts of oppression of the Russian-speaking population," Gen Minnekayev said.

The suggestion that people in Transnistria are oppressed is beyond preposterous. Stalin laid the foundation for the current political situation before the start of World War II,

Before World War II, Transnistria was ethnically Ukrainian, Moldovian, Russian, and Jewish. 

Being Moldovian and Moldovian culture is distinct. The Venn diagram that distinguishes Romanians from Moldovians is almost a circle when viewed by an outsider, but that isn't accurate.

During the German occupation in World War II, hundreds of thousands of people were killed, possibly 40% of the population.

185,000 Jews transferred from Ukraine, Romania, and parts of Moldova were sent to death camps, and ethnic Romanians/Moldovians who were political leaders, military leaders, educators, and others Germany saw as a threat were imprisoned and executed. Others were pressed into forced conscription into the Axis militaries or escaped west. Some would die on the plains of Russia west of Stalingrad.

When the region was liberated by the Soviet army in 1944, hundreds of thousands of ethnic Romanians, Ukrainians, and Moldovians were sent to Siberia by Stalin. Others who were seen as a threat to Soviet leadership ended up in shallow graves.

The region became a critical strategic location during the Cold War, holding one of the largest conventional weapons depots in Europe.

As the Soviet Union started to crack apart, the Republic of Transnistria wanted to stay aligned with the union. At the same time, Moldova wished to join its Eastern European neighbors, breaking away from the Warsaw Pact.

A "war," which would be better described as a series of skirmishes, erupted along the boundaries of Moldova and Transnistria in the spring of 1992. It lasted three months, with a cease-fire reached in July 1992 - while the Soviet Union still existed.

The Soviet Union dissolved, but Transnistria remained. A peace agreement was reached in 1994, and the Russian Federation maintained a "peacekeeping force" in the Republic of around 2,500 troops. In 1995, an agreement was reached to draw down the Russian peacekeepers and establish a path to reunification.

Transnistria is accused of violating conditions of the original 1995 agreement, including the production and selling of illegal military arms. In 2003 the Bush (43) Administration sanctioned Transnistrian leaders.

Editor's Note: We could not readily find if sanctions remained, and in the current political climate, it is a moot point.

Several attempts have been made at solidifying reunification, including an effort by Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2003-2004. The Putin plan included installing a Russian Federation military base in Moldova for 20 years. When the details were announced, mass protests erupted.

Despite the claims of "Russian oppression" in Transnistria, officials in the breakaway Republic tried to force Romanian schools to teach classes in Russian in 2005. The issue turned into a political crisis, but in the end, the republic backed off, and an agreement was reached.

OPINION: If there is something I've learned during my time on earth, arbitrary borders drawn up by men sitting in conference rooms on another continent end in disaster. Almost all of Africa, the former Yugoslavian republics, Latin America, Israel and Palestine, Kuwait and Iraq, Crimea...

The last attempt at reunification was in 2011.

OPINION: If there is something I've learned during my time on earth, politicians deciding to "punt" difficult decisions to a future generation ends in disaster. Had Gorbachev or Yeltsin dealt with this before 1994...

Before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Transnistria had become little more than a political oddity. No nation, including the Russian Federation, recognizes its independence. The "peacekeeping" force has dwindled to 1500 soldiers, equal to two smaller Batallion Tactical Groups.

It is alleged there is a significant Russian weapons cache in Transnistria, but in the current polarized climate, it is impossible to verify. It is widely accepted that there is little friction between Transnistria and Moldova today.

Some view the continued presence of the Russian peacekeepers as a way to prevent Moldova from pressing for NATO membership, which is likely untrue. The Moldovian Constitution declares the nation a neutral party in any conflict and bans foreign military forces on its soil. This would negate the ability to join NATO.

The existing military in the small nation is a lightly armed token force. Moldova has even come to the political defense of Transnistria since the start of the invasion. When Ukraine accused the Russian military presence in Transnistria of preparing to mobilize, both Moldova and Transnistria denied the allegation in separate statements. Transnistrian officials have repeatedly stated they don't want to get involved with the ongoing actions in Ukraine,

Multiple parties have reached out to the Russian Ministry of Defense, stating they were working on clarifying Gen Minnekayev's statement. The Moldovian foreign ministry released a statement declaring Minnekyev's speech "as unfounded and contradicting Russia's position in support of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of our country within internationally recognized borders."

Strategically speaking, Russia doesn't have the military capability to occupy the Odesa area using conventional forces alone, even if it wanted to. The loss of the Moskva and the arrival of multiple NATO antiship weapon systems would likely turn an amphibious assault into a disaster. Russian frigates and patrol boats are more geared for sea to sea and sea to land attacks. The Moskva's role was to provide sea to air and sea to sea capabilities.

Pulling BTGs from Mariupol to stretch territorial control while relying on conscripted Ukrainians to provide captured territorial protection is literally the same mistake the Germans made in 1942. 

One analyst we talked to about plans for forced conscription in Kherson told us off the record, "Give them guns? They'll use them on the Russian occupiers."

For now, everything indicates that President Putin wants to be able to declare "victory" in Ukraine before May 9 - regardless of the reality on the ground. Bluntly put, not even Adolf Hitler and the inventor of modern propaganda Josef Goebbels was audacious enough to declare victory in Stalingrad when the German army controlled 90% of the city.

President Putin has not hidden his desire to restore the borders of the old Soviet Union. Before the invasion of Ukraine, Transnistria was little more than a geographic and political oddity from the old Soviet Union. 

Putin's long-term ambition is clear, and the narrative that Moldovians oppress Transnistrians is the language of future conquest. There is no way to make this desire a reality in the short term, and it is more likely an attempt to lock Ukrainian forces in the west.

However, in our final assessment, if we were the leaders of Moldova, we would be very concerned about what future awaits us.