Russia-Ukraine Flash Report for 4-21-22 11:30 PDT - Mariupol, What's Next (Patreon)

Lost in Sergei Shoigu and Vladimir Putin's announcement that Mariupol is "liberated" was the Russian Ministry of Defense stating that 1,478 Russian soldiers had been killed in action - just in Mariupol.

The Russian MoD's last "official" number was released over a month ago - 498. Ukraine claimed close to 10,000 at the time, and Western intelligence (and our analysis) put the actual number between 4K and 6K.

The 1,478 Russian KIA in Mariupol announced this morning would not include Ukrainian DNR and LNR militias or Chechen forces.

If Russia admits to 1,478 lost publicly, we know the number for Russian forces is higher, and DNR and LNR militias would have suffered even heavier losses. 

Mariupol had an estimated 4,000 to 5,000 defenders when the city was encircled. Both Russia and Ukraine have stated that 2,000 to 2,500 Ukrainian marines and Azov Batallion National Guard members are still fighting. Russia is claiming they have captured close to 500. That number is likely close to reality, prisoners of war are monitored by multiple global agencies. We have visually confirmed 400 to 500 defenders who have surrendered. Russian claims that a total of 2,000 Ukrainian marines have surrendered in four or five separate incidents are a fantasy. Running the math indicates 1,000 Ukrainian forces have been killed in action or too severely wounded to keep fighting - 20% to 25% of the entire force. That math checks out because so far, the defenders remain combat effective. We learned that yesterday and today because they are still carrying out offensive operations.

We estimate actual Russian KIA in Mariupol is between 4,750 and 7,500. We base that on the public number released by the Russian Ministry of Defense, our estimated number of Ukrainian KIA, and the estimated theaterwide ratio of 1:4 KIA. We have low confidence in this estimate.

ASSESSMENT: We don't believe we can use our current assessment for theaterwide combat deaths and apply it to this KIA number. 13,000 to 15,000 Russian KIA in Mariupol alone, plus DNR and LNR, plus Chechen forces, is - unthinkable. That's the equivalent of 13 to 15 Batallion Tactical Groups completely wiped out.

Russia committed 12 known BTGs to Mariupol and added three more this week. 

We are seeing speculation that by declaring "victory" and moving to a containment strategy at Azovstal, Russia can redeploy these combat forces to other areas.

Putin has ordered to seal Azovstal so that not even a fly can get out. Despite 1500KG bombs, TOS-1 flamethrower thermobaric MLRS, artillery, tanks, APCs, 15 BTGs, and the Chechen TikTok squad, the lines around Azovstal itself were, and still remain a sieve. 

We had assessed that when "victory" was declared in Mariupol defenders would move to an aggressive and violent insurgency that will continue to bog down Russian resources.

ASSESSMENT: It is unlikely many Russian assets can be quickly redeployed. They have suffered heavy losses and will need to be resupplied and reconstituted. A large withdrawal will likely result in Ukrainian forces retaking territory, further exposing the absurd declaration of victory in Mariupol.

History also teaches us a lesson. At the height of its advance on Stalingrad, Germany controlled 90% of the city and had encircled Russian defenders into two pockets contained in industrial areas.

History doesn't repeat, but it does rhyme.