Russia-Ukraine Flash Report for 4-11-22 12:45 PDT (Patreon)

There are multiple reports from Ukrainian government officials, The Mariupol City Council, and military leaders, that chemical weapons have been deployed in Mariupol by Russian forces within the last hour.

There are reports of civilian and military casualties, with symptoms aligning with the deployment of Sarin or VX gas.

It is important to stress that we are treating this as unconfirmed. The reports are growing rapidly and coming from increasingly trustworthy sources.

Given the stalemate in Mariupol that has entered the 42nd day, President Putin's push to declare victory before May 9, and General Alexsandr Dvornikov's history of using chemical weapons in Chechnya and Syria, it is our assessment these reports have significant weight.

We do not expect an immediate statement from NATO, EU, British, or US officials beyond, "we have heard the allegations and..." in the short term. 

Western allies have stated that the deployment of chemical weapons would be considered a red line, that would be met with a direct response. What that response is (diplomatic, economic, or military) has not been defined.

We will monitor this situation very closely.